It's going to be a very interesting day: the news were good, there is still strong demand for the S, the sky is not falling as the X is buildable (what a surprise ;-) but I just wonder how this vs the bad macro will be reflected. I don't expect any short squeeze as there is no good set up for that (close to the 52 week low), they will not be in a hurry to cover.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Where are you getting these numbers?
What I see is that according to Paul Carter the cumulative totals of reservations (and these are, of course, not an actual numbers, just an estimate):
- 2012 - 2,272 cars
- 2013 - 7,254 cars
- 2014 - 15,188 cars
So according to the above data which represent an *estimate*, not an official numbers of reservations, the total for 2014 reservations was 7,934. 1.75 x 7934 = 13,884 which is much less than 21,000. The most important thing, though, since these are not official numbers and we really do not know reservation rate, trying to arrive at precise number of reservations is just not a prudent exercise, especially when it leads to bizarre conclusions...
Last edited:
Nice and what I thought as well. For a mass market car, price differentiation between a fully optioned car (aka signature) vs base will not be that significant. Plus, this strategy is inline with the Tesla mission - accelerate the advancement of sustainable transport thru electrification of cars. Just be nice about it or else, no 3 for you!
Price difference will probably be about double. Model S starts at 70k and maxes out at 145k.
Model 3 should follow a similar price pattern as the BMW 3 series (starts at around 30-35k --> but can be easily configurable to over 80k with a BMW M3)
dreamingof3
Member
I was ready to celebrate at 164! Now 148 ....sigh. Why can't this thing hold it's gains at all?
Please do not say "macro events" Tesla has been hammered and deserves at least a $20 bounce on their news.
PS-excited about the reservations at stores March 31. Do you think it will be necessary to "camp out"?
Please do not say "macro events" Tesla has been hammered and deserves at least a $20 bounce on their news.
PS-excited about the reservations at stores March 31. Do you think it will be necessary to "camp out"?
Gerasimental
Member
Elon tweeted a reply to that question, answer is yes. Reservations in stores globally.
Also answered 'still around $35K total price?' (asked by a famous youtuber) with 'yes..
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Probably if you want to be early in line. Bummed about the next day online thing. What will be more time consuming, driving to a store and getting in line, or sitting at the computer from 12:01AM April 1st until they actually open up online reservations?
dreamingof3
Member
Since I'm in Ohio I'm not sure how big the buzz is going to be at my local Tesla store. It's relatively close to my work so I could probably just swing by at lunch. I'm guessing it will be worth it to go to a store since you will be ahead in the reservation line.
The part that cofuses me is that the reveal is also 3/31. So folks at the reveal will not be first in line this time? Or are stores going to be open late? (Many are in indoor malls where this is not possible.) Or will the referral event be in the morning?
dreamingof3
Member
IMO they should move reveal to 3/30 to give people one day to think about reserving or not.
chickensevil
Active Member
Well for what it is worth, my broker (OptionsHouse) doesn't allow buying in Extended Hours except for between 8AM - 9:30AM and 4PM - 5PM. So because I essentially couldn't buy until 8AM this morning, I was glad it came back down some and snagged the shares I wanted to get at 148$. Even if we see a drop on the open, given the news, I am quite happy to get it for less than 150$ as I would have bought at 160$ last night if I was allowed to.
As Flux (and others) said, this may not be the bottom, but given the news, I am a buyer for sure at this level because the extreme doom and gloom is removed by the ER which should help us find a bottom sooner rather than later. The explosion in price up is not likely to properly happen until Q1 or Q2 ER, but hopefully given the information we have now the price will recover up enough that when that news does hit we are at a level that the positive news will allow greater leverage against the price.
As Flux (and others) said, this may not be the bottom, but given the news, I am a buyer for sure at this level because the extreme doom and gloom is removed by the ER which should help us find a bottom sooner rather than later. The explosion in price up is not likely to properly happen until Q1 or Q2 ER, but hopefully given the information we have now the price will recover up enough that when that news does hit we are at a level that the positive news will allow greater leverage against the price.
Me too. Penalizing the good people in Texas for their dumb laws. Unless they set set up a bunch of kiosks at the gallery that can make an early online reservation. OTOH being forced to wait to reserve until April 1st means lots of other people will be the guinea pig and get the early cars.
chickensevil
Active Member
For what it's worth, they only opened reservations up after the reveal the last two times. I would anticipate the same thing happening again. Which means if you truly want to be first in line you will likely need to be at the event itself. I would say if you get in on day one you are reasonably certain to get one within the first year of production which is probably good enough. Having VIN001 vs VIN50000 isn't likely to make a world of difference. At least I would hope that they can push at least 50k out for the year of 2018.
- - - Updated - - -
This is a great point as well. Although they are supposed to make this one simpler... I would actually be much happier waiting a good 6 months to let them work out the panel alignment issues and such that are likely to be present in the early cars. Of course you could also be first in line and then defer your actual order until you are reasonably certain that they have worked those out as well. Again, parallels from the S and X they have allowed people to hold off on ordering and it just made them fall backward in line until they actually placed their order. I would expect the same thing again.
That being said, if I am not mistaken online reservations were not opened until the day after on previous events. The major departure this time around is that instead of only those at the events getting the jump on the timing, they are extending this to the stores as well. I think that is a good step in the right direction since there is no way everyone who *wants* to go to the event *can* go to the event due to space issues.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's a good point, maybe I won't bother going to a store and getting in line, though I think you will be able to defer your reservation to a later date if you want to.
dreamingof3
Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I guess we'll see. But have to say at the 80K price point for 3, I'd rather get the S unless somehow they can figure out the traction limiting factor. If this M3 has a faster 0-60 time than the S, then that would be a compelling choice for the performance-type driver.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
