Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[farzyness]

I think breaking $200 this week will trigger a short squeeze into Model 3 reveal. There's also a pretty strong chance that we'll see a major publication review in March for the Model X with an extremely positive review. This will add a little bit of fuel to the fire. Regardless I think there's a better chance of us peaking right before the reveal vs. consolidating in the $200 region. I think we will see another spike if Tesla decides to reveal strong reservation numbers (in the hundreds of thousands).

Also - the trifecta of delivery numbers in Q1, Cash Flow positive announcement, and Model 3 reservation reveal on or around April 4, at the same time, has a ton of potential.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

With the the major indices up over 1% and TSLA hovering around the $195 price, where do you guys think the stock will go in the next couple days ? I feel a pullback coming into the market fairly soon (maybe in the next 2 weeks) based on how much stocks have risen over the past couple weeks but I could be wrong and TSLA could very well continue to rise in anticipation of the Model 3 debut. What are you guy's thoughts ?

I feel your questions are asking for a path, where there are only possibilities, and best answer is "It may, or may not happen". For insightful description of these possibilities, look up one of the last couple posts from "Jesselivenomore", I feel his discussion is as good answer as you're going to get.

 

[tray loader]

The recent news about incentives in Germany up to €5000,- starting July1st will give the stock IMHO an easy push above $200.
These news were long overdue and will function as a catalyst for Europe as a whole.

 

[Periodicowner123]

I think breaking $200 this week will trigger a short squeeze into Model 3 reveal. There's also a pretty strong chance that we'll see a major publication review in March for the Model X with an extremely positive review. This will add a little bit of fuel to the fire. Regardless I think there's a better chance of us peaking right before the reveal vs. consolidating in the $200 region. I think we will see another spike if Tesla decides to reveal strong reservation numbers (in the hundreds of thousands).

I agree that I think the price will spike right before the Model 3 debut at the end of this month. What im wondering though is if this $195 price will be a good entry point in the market ? We could very well see a pullback in the entire market, with all the buying thats been going on, and TSLA could drop down to around the $180's. Im actually surprised the stock didnt drop a little due to the worker protests at the Gigafactory yesterday.

 

[larmor]

What's the pricing like for a fully loaded GLE AMG, X6M, Cayenne GTS? I'm not entirely sure of Euro pricing there. For what you get in the X (plus fuel savings) it's almost apples to apples. I say almost because the Model X will spank them in performance. Driving the car is so futuristic it's bananas. In addition, you have companies like Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati, and Bentley making SUV offerings costing WAY more.

US pricing puts a cayenne gts at 150k.

 

[aznt1217]

US pricing puts a cayenne gts at 150k.

Oh meant to clarify. I know the US pricing for all of these and truthfully I think Model X is priced to the segment, I was more curious about European pricing. Real pricing not what I Google

 

[Julian Cox]

US pricing puts a cayenne gts at 150k.

$157K - with no cost options - and it's slower-accelerating than the loaded $142K X P90DL at all legal road speeds and considerably beyond.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

US pricing puts a cayenne gts at 150k.

To approach the performance of the X P90DL, you need to look to the Cayenne Turbo S which starts at $157k, and optioned up to equivalent equipment comes to $175k.

The comparable fully loaded X is $140k and has better performance, hauls more people and has greater cargo capacity.

Game. Set. Match.

 

[sub]

I agree that I think the price will spike right before the Model 3 debut at the end of this month. What im wondering though is if this $195 price will be a good entry point in the market ? We could very well see a pullback in the entire market, with all the buying thats been going on, and TSLA could drop down to around the $180's. Im actually surprised the stock didnt drop a little due to the worker protests at the Gigafactory yesterday.

If your too skiddish to enter here then sell some ~180 puts, if price drops as you suspect then no problem, if it goes up from here you at least don't get left completely behind.

 

[larmor]

Also, for europe: are there incentives for home solar separate from auto ev incentive?

To approach the performance of the X P90DL, you need to look to the Cayenne Turbo S which starts at $157k, and optioned up to equivalent equipment comes to $175k.

The comparable fully loaded X is $140k and has better performance, hauls more people and has greater cargo capacity.

Game. Set. Match.

- - - Updated - - -

Also compare to GL63 amg, since recently mercedes added another engine beyond the gl550. Cayenne seats 5 only.

To approach the performance of the X P90DL, you need to look to the Cayenne Turbo S which starts at $157k, and optioned up to equivalent equipment comes to $175k.

The comparable fully loaded X is $140k and has better performance, hauls more people and has greater cargo capacity.

Game. Set. Match.

 

[schonelucht]

Also, for europe: are there incentives for home solar separate from auto ev incentive?

Yes, there are too many to name.

 

[Spidy]

X6M I got around 150k. GLS config is offline. Bet the Porsche can easily be more expensive if you get all the insane options (350€ compass anyone?)

$157K - with no cost options - and it's slower-accelerating than the loaded $142K X P90DL at all legal road speeds and considerably beyond.

I think that's the biggest killer here in Germany. People who buy these insane performance cars want to drive 250km/h.

A lot of Model S customers usually came from cars in a lower class so 159200,- for a base signature is a lot compared to the 117.900€ Signature Model S back then. Don't think there will be much demand here as you probably won't get a Model X below 100k.

 

[MartinAustin]

I was able to get the Porsche Cayenne GTS up to $196,000 on this site - Porsche Cayenne Reviews - Porsche Cayenne Price, Photos, and Specs - Car and Driver

BTW with respect to the "U" in "SUV," the Cayenne has 23.5cu.ft. cargo capacity with all seats in place, and 62.9cu.ft. with them folded down, both of those figures being beaten by the Model S!!! (and then again by the Model X)

I was surprised to see a lot of features that have to be paid for in the Cayenne, but are standard in Tesla cars. Heated front seats for example.

I've said this before, but the Model S is really quite a bargain for the features you get (putting the total cost of ownership to one side), and it has been getting cheaper over time if you account for the improvements that get built-in for no added money, and inflation.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I was able to get the Porsche Cayenne GTS up to $196,000 on this site - Porsche Cayenne Reviews - Porsche Cayenne Price, Photos, and Specs - Car and Driver

BTW with respect to the "U" in "SUV," the Cayenne has 23.5cu.ft. cargo capacity with all seats in place, and 62.9cu.ft. with them folded down, both of those figures being beaten by the Model S!!! (and then again by the Model X)

I was surprised to see a lot of features that have to be paid for in the Cayenne, but are standard in Tesla cars. Heated front seats for example.

I've said this before, but the Model S is really quite a bargain for the features you get (putting the total cost of ownership to one side), and it has been getting cheaper over time if you account for the improvements that get built-in for no added money, and inflation.

Yeah, Porsche is good and nicking & dimming.

I finished yesterday scheduling European delivery for Porsche GT4, and throughout the process I was annoyed with little things, and kept thinking how much I've fallen _out_ of love with Porsche brand, manufacturer and behavior. And I'm racetrack (DE) guy, and there is no (economic) alternative to Porsche there. I even considered dropping GT4 order, but that would be utterly stupid, considering this particular model commands premium to the retail price.

Anyhow, point is, Tesla is different type of company, and dealing with regular car company afterwards feels antiquated and annoying.
Really, sometimes I feel happy thinking of all the trouble that regular car companies are about to experience trying to keep Tesla at bay - they're going to be blown at loyalty TSLA customer will show, and how difficult will be to even slow this tide, let alone stop it.

And I don't even have TSLA yet!!! Saving up...

 

[Drax7]

Why is it taking tesla so long to fix the seal along the windshield, apparently the only
constraint to accelerating production of model X.

 

[Causalien]

With the the major indices up over 1% and TSLA hovering around the $195 price, where do you guys think the stock will go in the next couple days ? I feel a pullback coming into the market fairly soon (maybe in the next 2 weeks) based on how much stocks have risen over the past couple weeks but I could be wrong and TSLA could very well continue to rise in anticipation of the Model 3 debut. What are you guy's thoughts ?

We close the $208 gap before Model 3 reveal

 

[Fallenone]

No one mentions the Inside EVs number for only 400 X? The market is clearly disappointed by this as we lagged so much behind indices (but at the same time the 1550 S made up a bit). I doubt Geneva auto show can help a lot since the test drive has been going on for some time and still continuing. Besides, we were rejected by 50 MA (196~197) yesterday and today. If the Inside EVs number for X was good, we could have broken through 50 MA, especially with strong tailwind from macro today. But it didn't happen. Therefore the chance of a pull back for this week and probably the next is very likely IMO. Looking to buy more at 180 level (unless it got shattered to the downside).

 

[theschnell]

No one mentions the Inside EVs number for only 400 X? The market is clearly disappointed by this as we lagged so much behind indices (but at the same time the 1550 S made up a bit). I doubt Geneva auto show can help a lot since the test drive has been going on for some time and still continuing. Besides, we were rejected by 50 MA (196~197) yesterday and today. If the Inside EVs number for X was good, we could have broken through 50 MA, especially with strong tailwind from macro today. But it didn't happen. Therefore the chance of a pull back for this week and probably the next is very likely IMO. Looking to buy more at 180 level (unless it got shattered to the downside).

This number seems a little low to me, but definitely not a good sign. Even if reality were 50% higher, they are still ramping extremely slowly. I think this is going to continue to be an headwind for the stock until there is evidence of a serious ramp up. Maybe by the end of March they can put the final touches on all those X's sitting around waiting for parts, and push maybe 1,500 to 2,000 out in March. That would be a big relief after this 400 number from Inside EVs.

 

[Fallenone]

Inside EVs numbers were pretty close to Tesla's quarterly numbers (+_ 10%) in the past so although 400 seems low, it could be the reality we are facing. This slow ramp up is like a cap on the stock. Needs to blow away ramp up before the stock to go up substantially.

This number seems a little low to me, but definitely not a good sign. Even if reality were 50% higher, they are still ramping extremely slowly. I think this is going to continue to be an headwind for the stock until there is evidence of a serious ramp up. Maybe by the end of March they can put the final touches on all those X's sitting around waiting for parts, and push maybe 1,500 to 2,000 out in March. That would be a big relief after this 400 number from Inside EVs.

 

[FredTMC]

Why is TSLA down now? Union GF flap?