Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

Eleven Model X outside San Diego service this morning.

Ummm. Wow. Nice. Thx for posting. These MX deliveries seem to be really picking up

 

[Kenypowa]

It goes down gradually? At what rate and timeline?

An early Tesla Model 3 reservation could determine if you get the $7,500 US tax credit or not

The US Law states that after 200,000 is reached, customers will receive $3,750 for the following 6 months with no apparent limit on units. The following 6 months after that, only $1,875 will be awarded to car buyers. That means that for most of 2019 Tesla buyers won’t likely have much federal incentive to buy cars. By 2020, the Federal Subsidy will have run out.

 

[FredTMC]

Nice pop now in TSLA. Nice to be green today. Naz is bounding higher too

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I hope Julian comes off his banishment before the M3 unveiling. Looking forward to discussing how this is going to play out. Already expecting the reservation numbers from the morning of the 31st to make an appearance in the unveiling event. I think it would be hilarious if Elon started by mentioning the fact that they now have 54,000 (or whatever) reservations for the Model 3... And by the way, here is the car!

Strangely, the reps at our local store are somehow convinced there will only be pictures of the M3. I let them know how ridiculous that is. We now have a standing bet. I am also working with the Mall staff to figure out the camping situation.

Imagine if Tesla announces anything close to 200,000 reservations in the first 24 hours.

Tesla has 1.4 million followers on Twitter. I'm very confident at least a few customers intend to place a deposit for a few hundred Model 3, if Tesla allows it.


Apple sold 270,000 iPhones in the first 30 hours

Remember, the CEO of Uber said he will buy 500,000 Model 3 if it is fully autonomous.

 

[MartinAustin]

First post on this beautiful new system! Nice.

Also nice is the TSLA chart today. After starting in the red it has fought it's way back into the green.

 

[Southpaw]

"There is not another stock, with revenue growing at 50% per year, that trades at just over 3x this year’s revenue (For comparison, Home Depot trades at 2x revenue: McDonald’s trades at over 4x revenue). It is true that if TSLA is just another auto manufacturer, then the stock is overpriced. But if TSLA is anything other than that…if it is something different, something that we’ve never encountered…..then the stock is potentially wildly underpriced."

This is ridiculous and reveals how you have no idea what you are talking about. Tesla is just another auto manufacturer, but worse, burning cash and lacks scale. MCD is a world class franchisor with 28.8% EBIT margins. They are spending 7% of sales on cap-ex. Tesla is spending 40%+ with no end in sight. TSLA enterprise value to sales is 8.2x. GM's is 0.59x with a 0.39x 5-year average. This should be your trading comp. Using McDonald's or Home Depot is beyond laughable and has zero basis in reality.

 

[SBenson]

An early Tesla Model 3 reservation could determine if you get the $7,500 US tax credit or not

The US Law states that after 200,000 is reached, customers will receive $3,750 for the following 6 months with no apparent limit on units. The following 6 months after that, only $1,875 will be awarded to car buyers. That means that for most of 2019 Tesla buyers won’t likely have much federal incentive to buy cars. By 2020, the Federal Subsidy will have run out.

Thanks. And there is always hope that Hillary will make full $7.5K permanent.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

This is ridiculous and reveals how you have no idea what you are talking about.

Let me be the first to welcome you to the forum.
Howdy!

 

[SBenson]

I hope Julian comes off his banishment before the M3 unveiling. Looking forward to discussing how this is going to play out. Already expecting the reservation numbers from the morning of the 31st to make an appearance in the unveiling event. I think it would be hilarious if Elon started by mentioning the fact that they now have 54,000 (or whatever) reservations for the Model 3... And by the way, here is the car!

Strangely, the reps at our local store are somehow convinced there will only be pictures of the M3. I let them know how ridiculous that is. We now have a standing bet. I am also working with the Mall staff to figure out the camping situation.

I have been out for a week or so. But Julian is banned again? Why??

 

[Blip]

I have been out for a week or so. But Julian is banned again? Why??

Jesselives.. too. They sounded more and more like my children...

 

[Southpaw]

How is the bold underlined sentence contradicts with showing the car and pictures on Mar 31?

Sounds to me like it will only be pictures.

 

[Irishjugg]

Sounds to me like it will only be pictures.

You are almost definitely wrong with near 100% certainty. You are making the same misinterpretation that many articles did right after that too. Elon does prototypes, not pictures.
You are new here, so welcome, but I would be careful coming in guns firing like this with likely incorrect information (and a strongly incorrect understanding of Tesla the company and their financials). Just a warning, people may start to consider you a fud spewing bear/shill and quickly ignore your posts if you aren't more measured.
For the record, of course the percentage of Tesla sales spending to revenue is much higher than an established car company, their revenue will be much much higher, and if course they sell through dealers and don't spend on their own for sales like Tesla must.
Your (overly aggressive) argument above about the stock is deeply flawed. Hell, Tesla lacking scale is exactly why they shouldn't be valued the same as a grown up car company with little room to grow. Your statement on cash burn is equally misleading as plenty here will be happy to explain if you are here to learn about how the business is run.

 

[esk8mw]

"There is not another stock, with revenue growing at 50% per year, that trades at just over 3x this year’s revenue (For comparison, Home Depot trades at 2x revenue: McDonald’s trades at over 4x revenue). It is true that if TSLA is just another auto manufacturer, then the stock is overpriced. But if TSLA is anything other than that…if it is something different, something that we’ve never encountered…..then the stock is potentially wildly underpriced."

This is ridiculous and reveals how you have no idea what you are talking about. Tesla is just another auto manufacturer, but worse, burning cash and lacks scale. MCD is a world class franchisor with 28.8% EBIT margins. They are spending 7% of sales on cap-ex. Tesla is spending 40%+ with no end in sight. TSLA enterprise value to sales is 8.2x. GM's is 0.59x with a 0.39x 5-year average. This should be your trading comp. Using McDonald's or Home Depot is beyond laughable and has zero basis in reality.

Hey there, shorty. Getting nervous yet? Good luck trying to use GM as a comparison. Say hey to valuationmatters for me.

 

[Irishjugg]

I forgot to mention capex above when I focused on sales, but the same fact I made about sales, that Tesla's comparatively much lower revenue will necessarily make their percentage of revenue spent on called a larger percentage, purely because the denominator is so much smaller.

 

[Papafox]

"There is not another stock, with revenue growing at 50% per year, that trades at just over 3x this year’s revenue (For comparison, Home Depot trades at 2x revenue: McDonald’s trades at over 4x revenue). It is true that if TSLA is just another auto manufacturer, then the stock is overpriced. But if TSLA is anything other than that…if it is something different, something that we’ve never encountered…..then the stock is potentially wildly underpriced."

This is ridiculous and reveals how you have no idea what you are talking about. Tesla is just another auto manufacturer, but worse, burning cash and lacks scale. MCD is a world class franchisor with 28.8% EBIT margins. They are spending 7% of sales on cap-ex. Tesla is spending 40%+ with no end in sight. TSLA enterprise value to sales is 8.2x. GM's is 0.59x with a 0.39x 5-year average. This should be your trading comp. Using McDonald's or Home Depot is beyond laughable and has zero basis in reality.

Southpaw, please take some advice. When Tesla is on an upward march with good news likely to be announced ahead, it can sprint upward at astonishing rates. Get out of your short position and take your losses before it gets much, much worse. Seriously, trying to talk the stock down on this forum is an act of futility.

 

[Gerardf]

"There is not another stock, with revenue growing at 50% per year, that trades at just over 3x this year’s revenue (For comparison, Home Depot trades at 2x revenue: McDonald’s trades at over 4x revenue). It is true that if TSLA is just another auto manufacturer, then the stock is overpriced. But if TSLA is anything other than that…if it is something different, something that we’ve never encountered…..then the stock is potentially wildly underpriced."

This is ridiculous and reveals how you have no idea what you are talking about. Tesla is just another auto manufacturer, but worse, burning cash and lacks scale. MCD is a world class franchisor with 28.8% EBIT margins. They are spending 7% of sales on cap-ex. Tesla is spending 40%+ with no end in sight. TSLA enterprise value to sales is 8.2x. GM's is 0.59x with a 0.39x 5-year average. This should be your trading comp. Using McDonald's or Home Depot is beyond laughable and has zero basis in reality.

Looking at your number of post on this forum, it looks like you are new to the forum Welcome !

The issues you bring up have been discussed in detail in various threads in the investor section of this forum.
In case you did not invest some time yet to read some of the threads, I would like to advise you to do so. I predict the things you brought up in your first three post are all covered.

Advise: you might want to show a bit more respect for the opinion of those who post here a long time.

Edit: I fully agree with the post of Papafox. Should you have a current short position, be very careful. People of this forum have spend a lot of time analyzing TSLA, and consensus is that being short on TSLA, specially at this moment, is a risky position.

 

[JRP3]

Sounds to me like it will only be pictures.

You misinterpreted the statement.

 

[Southpaw]

Bubbles are mass psychology phenomena and this one is no different. They will not hit an inflection point where cap-ex scales down. That's the nature of the fast moving auto business.

 

[Southpaw]

You are almost definitely wrong with near 100% certainty. You are making the same misinterpretation that many articles did right after that too. Elon does prototypes, not pictures.
You are new here, so welcome, but I would be careful coming in guns firing like this with likely incorrect information (and a strongly incorrect understanding of Tesla the company and their financials). Just a warning, people may start to consider you a fud spewing bear/shill and quickly ignore your posts if you aren't more measured.
For the record, of course the percentage of Tesla sales spending to revenue is much higher than an established car company, their revenue will be much much higher, and if course they sell through dealers and don't spend on their own for sales like Tesla must.
Your (overly aggressive) argument above about the stock is deeply flawed. Hell, Tesla lacking scale is exactly why they shouldn't be valued the same as a grown up car company with little room to grow. Your statement on cash burn is equally misleading as plenty here will be happy to explain if you are here to learn about how the business is run.

If you look at auto manufacturers and other capex intensive industrial companies you will see that enterprise value/invested capital is generally below one because returns on capital are so poor. Tesla's will also revert to sub-1x (e.g. 90% downside) as their business model is so flawed.

 

[Johan]

Bubbles are mass psychology phenomena and this one is no different. They will not hit an inflection point where cap-ex scales down. That's the nature of the fast moving auto business.

The auto business is anything but fast moving for anyone but Tesla. Please do explain what you meant by your statement.

Addition: saw you next post. Hello. Goodbye. Glad the new forum has an ignore feature as well.