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CyberDutchie
Active Member
I figured "mulder"1231 would think it's a conspiracy(X files music in the background...). Sorry, I know, off topic, doesn't belong in short-term thread... couldn't resist...
Hahaha, funny!
3 files rather then X files in this case...
Car4CivilizedAge
Member
I just visited Tesla in Stockholm (Taby) and I counted 87 people in the queue as the store was opening, more than I expected!
How long did it take for everyone in line to reserve? I might show up at my store sooner rather than later if I know I won't have to wait.
According to The Guardian, there were 200 in store reservations in Sydney. Averaging this out for 210 stores would yield 42K first-day reservations. This would be on top of the employee reservations. Less than I speculated earlier (300 per store), but very impressive nevertheless.
Nice job of tempering expectations, Ben Kallo (in interview on CNBC he speculated 15K reservations in "weeks" rather than three years as happened for Model S) - we need a good positive surprise!
Nice job of tempering expectations, Ben Kallo (in interview on CNBC he speculated 15K reservations in "weeks" rather than three years as happened for Model S) - we need a good positive surprise!
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Runarbt
Active Member
Car4CivilizedAge
Member
If there are 40-50k in person, how many online at 8:30 Pacific? I would guess 2x, somewhat conservatively - especially with Model S &X owners and potential "fleet". Any oddsmakers out there want to set the line on an Over/Under of 150k reservations by market open Friday?
I'll take the over.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Place like California are going to have way more than 200 per store. Here in Florida it'll be at least 500 per store.
From when the stores opened until there was no more queue, it was 2,5 hours. Funnily enough, half way through the queue, someone (something) set of the mall's fire alarm, (the shorts are getting desperate ), so everyone had to exit for 15 minutes before being allowed back inside the mall. In total, with newcomers arriving after the store opened, I would say easily above 100 persons. How many reservations that translates to is anyone's guess.
Over 100k for sure.
I think there will be a good inflow of online reservations the days after the reveal. Many don't know about the car and it will probably also not be clear to them that the wait time will be long so they will reserve.
I think 200k at the end of April will happen.
I wonder if there is a way to estimate online reservations. With respect to in-store reservations counting the queue at-least give some numbers to work from.
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Just FYI, apparently the new TMC Site is keeping track of "robots" that are perusing this Site (see snap shot below). Apparently, at the time of getting this snap shot 109 out of 806 visitors or 13.5% were robots... Any IT professionals willing to speculate what these "robots" might be?
I was there during the fire alarm in Täby Centrum as well, Larken. Here is a picture of the line right before the evacuation:
Lined up at the Yorkdale mall in Toronto (1 of 2 locations in the city), over 100 people in line so far.
So FWIW on call spreads and short term positions.. A few things concern me on the charts, especially as we are looking at EOM today. First off, I would feel a bit better about this if we didn't open this morning with a gap -- it's still premarket, but I don't like seeing gaps in an already volatile stock with downward momentum.
2nd, the 50, 100, and 200DMA indicate we are slightly under, and there is a good chance that trend will continue as RSI indicates a downside.
Fundos: M3 Reveal.. Really though, I do not think the reveal is a macro that will effect the stock price. Actually, a product unveil in any industry rarely directly affects the stock price -- in fact, a stock usually trends horizontal rangebound until a consensus is mounted a few days later. Reservation lines, product unveil, really don't do much for stock movement, rather, they will enforce sentiment when financial numbers are released (please read that last sentence again). Whether you want to believe it or not, this news is already built in to the price right now.
We might start to see upward support by tomorrow, mostly specs that want to position before next week -- especially if one iota of information about S and or X fulfillment numbers are mentioned. I have more confidence there will be several Bull Traps in the next 36 hours than upward momentum -- but that's just what TA points to.
Next week: Expect momentum to the upside, especially because Tesla usually releases Q1 numbers within a few days of Q1 close. That combined with the events this week will likely propel strong support upward. I will have to revisit charts EOW to feel solid in that.
Happy M3 Day! Also, bulls -- remember April Fool's on the upside there is still a massive amount of resistance at 239.7 -- when/if we blow through that support mark, as it stands, there is a strong likelihood of a short squeeze. In fact, short interest aside, this is setting about to be a really big short squeeze. On the downside, beware: There is a gap in the 167 area that has yet to be filled. IMHO all gaps eventually get filled.
2nd, the 50, 100, and 200DMA indicate we are slightly under, and there is a good chance that trend will continue as RSI indicates a downside.
Fundos: M3 Reveal.. Really though, I do not think the reveal is a macro that will effect the stock price. Actually, a product unveil in any industry rarely directly affects the stock price -- in fact, a stock usually trends horizontal rangebound until a consensus is mounted a few days later. Reservation lines, product unveil, really don't do much for stock movement, rather, they will enforce sentiment when financial numbers are released (please read that last sentence again). Whether you want to believe it or not, this news is already built in to the price right now.
We might start to see upward support by tomorrow, mostly specs that want to position before next week -- especially if one iota of information about S and or X fulfillment numbers are mentioned. I have more confidence there will be several Bull Traps in the next 36 hours than upward momentum -- but that's just what TA points to.
Next week: Expect momentum to the upside, especially because Tesla usually releases Q1 numbers within a few days of Q1 close. That combined with the events this week will likely propel strong support upward. I will have to revisit charts EOW to feel solid in that.
Happy M3 Day! Also, bulls -- remember April Fool's on the upside there is still a massive amount of resistance at 239.7 -- when/if we blow through that support mark, as it stands, there is a strong likelihood of a short squeeze. In fact, short interest aside, this is setting about to be a really big short squeeze. On the downside, beware: There is a gap in the 167 area that has yet to be filled. IMHO all gaps eventually get filled.
These lines have to influence share price action today. The last time someone lined up for something from GM, it was to get their recall processed faster.
Remember, there was no advertising letting people know the Model 3 was going on sale today other than word of mouth when they announced the date two weeks ago.
BTW, on the plane, heading to Hawthorne!
Remember, there was no advertising letting people know the Model 3 was going on sale today other than word of mouth when they announced the date two weeks ago.
BTW, on the plane, heading to Hawthorne!
It is possible Model 3 won't do much for the stock short-term but as a long term fundamental investor you don't know when the push upwards will happen and when the market will start "to get it". Short term trading is another game.
For Apple iPhone had a big impact on the stock after the reveal, and we had examples of this happening with Tesla too for other products.
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