-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
I think it might be time to point out that Tesla is not a member of the Internal Combustion Engine industry any more than the Horseless Carriage makers like Ford were really members of the Horse-Drawn Carriage industry.
The reason why this is interesting is that it seems to have taken this morning for fund managers to separate TSLA out from their Automotive index funds because it would be a bit silly to sell off the automotive sector right now on news of the Model 3 without making that clear distinction otherwise you risk throwing out the baby with the bath water.
It would not be at all surprising if some fund managers were slow to catch on and ended up dragging down TSLA at a loss as a member of a sector sell off that Tesla itself is responsible for trouncing - when for example TSLA and GM ought probably to be a pair trade!
ludicrousspeed
Member
Trust me, I'm as big a Musk fan as there is, but he's clearly trying to draw attention or "hype". Not many here were expecting him to announce reservation numbers at the event, which he did, and then has tweeted an updated number 4 times since. I don't really have a problem with it, but he's definitely looking to get the SP higher for a capital raise in the near term. Again, nothing wrong with that, but that's how I see it.
I definitely agree that Q1 deliveries do not speak directly to cannibalization, but in the world of FUD and low information "reports" it's important to keep the narrative that Tesla is still experiencing high demand for S/X and is selling as many as they can produce.
Put another way, if Q1 falls short, do you really expect that FUD spreaders would conduct careful analysis and add nuance to their argument that "S/X demand falls off a cliff in anticipation of 3 reveal!"?
I fail to see the relevance of Model X delivery numbers in the wake of what has happened in the last few days. The stock price is now being driven totally by the confidence, or lack thereof, that Tesla can make a solid profit on the Model 3.
This quarter's Model X deliveries are completely contingent on ramp issues specific to the Model X ramp. A few thousand more or less is irrelevant now to the valuation of TSLA.
This quarter's Model X deliveries are completely contingent on ramp issues specific to the Model X ramp. A few thousand more or less is irrelevant now to the valuation of TSLA.
That must have triggered many limit orders from weak longs to sell at $250, as over 200,000 shares were traded during the minute that price was hit. Now that they have been cleared out of the way, the next assault on $250 should go more smoothly.
@dreamingof3 @AmpedRealtor
This has occurred before May, your position if you have not sold it already at a loss is in the money or better and hence I formally discharge disavow any obligation to eat my unwashed socks and send you the video.
@Curt Renz
Edit - Ha! Funny you should mention it. It hit my sock bet limit order.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The 'Optimism Index' is pinging quite high right now. I like to load up when the Optimism Index is way low. In January, you couldn't find a positive article on TSLA. Now it's difficult to find a negative one (outside of SA, which I avoid like the plague).
I sold some LEAPs and bought the stock today....got out of the Ferrari and back on the bus.
I sold some LEAPs and bought the stock today....got out of the Ferrari and back on the bus.
Meh, this run is just getting started. Remember the real event for 2016 is some quarter, probably Q2 ER in Aug where they show polished financials. (maybe May For Q1, but that is a fan's hope). We are seeing something unusual, a run based on a product announcement. Good financial news is a stronger lever, whatever and whenever such news shows up.
To those wondering why Q1 deliveries matter... If they can show that the X is in heavy production that is a terrific 1-2 punch. The future looks great with the M3, and the present looks great with ramp hiccups in the past. If the X ramp is indeed out of the woods, then 2016 will look great financially.
sahanim
Member
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
I don't agree, especially with "often exaggerating its importance or benefits"
verb
verb: hype; 3rd person present: hypes; past tense: hyped; past participle: hyped; gerund or present participle: hyping
1.
promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its importance or benefits.
From tsla stock price action today, Q1 will beat in a big way. Let's wait and see.
RAM_Eh
Member
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Totally agree about the 1-2 punch, which is why I'm still long. It's just that I have more downside protection when the excitement wears off with the stock instead of ATM calls.
Exactly. He's not hyping at all. He is merely reporting a fact of how many orders have been received. Hyping is when you exaggerate the importance of something. He is not exaggerating the importance. He is just telling us like it is. That he might need to increase production to meet demand. That is reality, not hype.
mmd
Active Member
That's quite optimistic. IMO. The head of China sales said, 10,000 in 2016. 5000 just in Q1 may be too much? So far, here is what we got:
US : 9000 from Inside EVS estitmate
Europe: 3000 estimate ( 2207 confirmed as of now)
Need 4000 from china and elsewhere to meet 16000 in q1.
Last edited:
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
