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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I expect the current run will creep up to a new ATH and overshoot it maybe to the early $300s, $330 tops before everyone agrees its overbought on hype. Could easily be a textbook sell in May and go away. So yes.

Then the main short-squeeze run of the year will follow IMO - from July with epic progress on fundamentals as the underpinning. That's the one I'm interested in.

What I'd like to know Julian is; "When a true short squeeze occurs, how far will the SP fall after its new ATH back toward the previous ATH before it stabilizes?" My thought is the larger the squeeze, the larger the fall. For example, if it goes to $600 I expect it to drop afterward a good deal more than if it goes to $400.

Would you care to speculate on how far it will drop ( back to, or below the price just before the squeeze)after reaching $300, $400, $500, etc.?
Thanks for any insight.
 
I'm sure this has been discussed here already, but here goes anyway...

Options Investor Bets Tesla Rally Is Losing Its Charge

Someone sold 693 $260 calls expiring Friday for $2.20 each. Netting $152,460. Once Tesla shares hit $262.20, he/she has lost the $152,460. Every $1.00 Tesla goes over $262.20, options writer is out of pocket $69,300.

Welcome to the House of Pain!

Anyone here want to fess up to buying up those 693 contracts ;)

RT
 
First and formost I have no relationship with MarkIt. I just happen to have access to it. This is what MarkIt says about it's sources:

"
Markit Securities Finance is the leading global provider of securities financing data and daily long and short institutional fund flow insight.

Based in New York, London and Hong Kong, the company's predictive analytics help clients identify investment opportunities and manage risk by analyzing fund flow, stock loan availability, short interest and stock lending volume.

Established in 2002, Markit Securities Finance's unique content set of more than three million daily transactions is sourced directly from contributing customers across securities financing, including Investment Banks, Prime Brokers, Lending Agents, Beneficial Owners and Hedge Funds.
"

So there *might* be some sauce on top of the raw data to normalize it with exchange data. But it is in fact based on some real data. Not just fictional imagination.

This may in fact be a short squeeze that is occurring which I define as some amount of net shorts closing out positions to help drive the stock price up

MarkIt is VERY OFTEN WRONG, particularly in unusual trading scenarios...their proprietary algos they use to give their best 'estimates' of short interest are only somewhat reliable when the stocks trading conditions are relatively normal. Look at the volume the past few days, is that normal????

The only true data point we have is the NASDAQ short interest publication which comes out every two weeks and is backwards looking. Also people often misunderstand the correct date to reference by 3 business days because it goes off of a snapshot on 'settlement date' which really is a snapshot of 3 business days prior since it takes 3 business days for US stocks to settle.

If i remember correct, SBenson had been claiming that MarkIt was stating record high short interest around March 10th as well a few days after we broke 200...this was the last true short interest data point given from the last NASDAQ publication which was disseminated on March 24th reflecting settlement of March 15th which was really for end of trading Thursday March 10th (3 business days prior to March 15th).

Please see my latest post in the short interest thread for more detail on why MarkIt is often wrong and keep the more detailed/technical discussion on short interest in that thread if possible.

Genuine questions:

- How do you *know* markIt is wrong? Have you cross checked markit against exchange data?

- How you *know* a squeeze is happening, other than gut instinct? do you have any data to back it up?

Separately, I am not sure why you are getting so worked up about this. Why does it matter? it's better with a rally if they aren't squeezed yet, no? That would mean an even bigger up run. So we should be happier (on the long side). So why sweat?
 
Someone sold 693 $260 calls expiring Friday for $2.20 each. Netting $152,460. Once Tesla shares hit $262.20, he/she has lost the $152,460. Every $1.00 Tesla goes over $262.20, options writer is out of pocket $69,300.
Of course that could be someone with an actual position they are writing covered calls against. They are hoping they will expire worthless but otherwise will happily take the effective sale price of $262.20 for their stock position.
 
I'm sure this has been discussed here already, but here goes anyway...

Options Investor Bets Tesla Rally Is Losing Its Charge

Someone sold 693 $260 calls expiring Friday for $2.20 each. Netting $152,460. Once Tesla shares hit $262.20, he/she has lost the $152,460. Every $1.00 Tesla goes over $262.20, options writer is out of pocket $69,300.

Welcome to the House of Pain!

Anyone here want to fess up to buying up those 693 contracts ;)

RT

I had 10 of those, not the original trade (I bought yesterday) but I've flipped them. Hopefully it was the original seller who had to buy them back from me :). One man's gain is another man's pain.
 
I'm sure this has been discussed here already, but here goes anyway...

Options Investor Bets Tesla Rally Is Losing Its Charge

Someone sold 693 $260 calls expiring Friday for $2.20 each. Netting $152,460. Once Tesla shares hit $262.20, he/she has lost the $152,460. Every $1.00 Tesla goes over $262.20, options writer is out of pocket $69,300.

Welcome to the House of Pain!

Anyone here want to fess up to buying up those 693 contracts ;)

RT

Don't fight the tape.
 
I agree the Model X and S will be unlikely to fund the Model 3 so more capital will be necessary especially with the need for more capacity to accelerate the Model 3 ramp.

One thought I had was to allow current the reservation holders to start to pre-pay their car. Any prepayments before Sept 2017 would get you 2% of the prepayment towards Model 3 options. Fully refundable but you would loose your reservation if you withdrawal the pre-payment. A full $35K pre-payment would net you $750 discount on the options for the car. Of course you could do less and contribute monthly.

Given the less wealthy and younger people wanting to buy a model 3 I think many would like do this.

Even 10% overall pre-payment on current reservations would net over $1B. Probably cheaper than going to Wall Street and no dilution of the stock.

There will be no prepayments. There are plenty of other funding sources both within and in addition to the capital markets. Taking any payment for the car as opposed to just a place on a reservation list commits Tesla to selling the car and that would fundamentally alter the leverage that external finance has vs Tesla.

The opportunity to deliver a million cars to deposited reservation holders Is staggeringly positive. The obligation to deliver a million cars when you can't do it without the help of external capital is the exact opposite - staggeringly negative. That's how you get pwned.

Musk too smart for that, product too good.
 
263, love it!

Not sure if I'm considered long or not. I bought a pile in mid February at 145 and then 165, and am currently 60% up. However, here in Belgium they recently introduced a "speculation tax" - 33% of all profits deducted at source for all shares sold within 6 months of purchase. However, sell after 6 months + 1 day and there's no tax due - none at all, you don't even need to declare it.

So if I were to sell now, I hand-over €9k to the authorities, so I think I'd rather wait... It makes day-trading impossible, but that's perhaps a good thing, because then I'd never get any work done :eek:
 
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