Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Johan]

How about this: what if Tesla in a quarterly report and call during this year came out with a "would-be" balance sheet showing how they would have been clearly free cash flow positive at a certain point in time (for example in Q2 or Q3) but at the same time an actual balance sheet where they're not FCF positive due to having revised their schedule and goals for Model 3 as a result of unexpectedly high demand and reservation count (resulting in increased investment for production capability and R&D, or "cash burn" as seems to be a preferred term by many)?

Now, for some investors this would seem unnecessary and something that could have been easily deduced without being presented. On the order hand it seems like a big part of the investment community needs to be spoon fed this type of information. Or would it create backlash with bears yelling about creative accounting and presenting numbers that are not based in reality?

From my point of view it would be valuable if Tesla came out and told investors what their balance sheet would look like if they didn't keep reaching for reckless growth while at the same time saying they're going for it.

 

[Hogfighter]

How about this: what if Tesla in a quarterly report and call during this year came out with a "would-be" balance sheet showing how they would have been clearly free cash flow positive at a certain point in time (for example in Q2 or Q3) but at the same time an actual balance sheet where they're not FCF positive due to having revised their schedule and goals for Model 3 as a result of unexpectedly high demand and reservation count (resulting in increased investment for production capability and R&D, or "cash burn" as seems to be a preferred term by many)?

Now, for some investors this would seem unnecessary and something that could have been easily deduced without being presented. On the order hand it seems like a big part of the investment community needs to be spoon fed this type of information. Or would it create backlash with bears yelling about creative accounting and presenting numbers that are not based in reality?

From my point of view it would be valuable if Tesla came out and told investors what their balance sheet would look like if they didn't keep reaching for reckless growth while at the same time saying they're going for it.

I would be taken positively by the bulls, negatively by the bears. Just like their 'core operational FCF' numbers, whatever the heck that is.

 

[FredTMC]

How about this: what if Tesla in a quarterly report and call during this year came out with a "would-be" balance sheet showing how they would have been clearly free cash flow positive at a certain point in time (for example in Q2 or Q3) but at the same time an actual balance sheet where they're not FCF positive due to having revised their schedule and goals for Model 3 as a result of unexpectedly high demand and reservation count (resulting in increased investment for production capability and R&D, or "cash burn" as seems to be a preferred term by many)?

Now, for some investors this would seem unnecessary and something that could have been easily deduced without being presented. On the order hand it seems like a big part of the investment community needs to be spoon fed this type of information. Or would it create backlash with bears yelling about creative accounting and presenting numbers that are not based in reality?

From my point of view it would be valuable if Tesla came out and told investors what their balance sheet would look like if they didn't keep reaching for reckless growth while at the same time saying they're going for it.

Same could be inferred for AMZN for long periods of time.

This IS the classic battle between investors in the long-term plans vs those who want profit every quarter

 

[2Pearls]

Signed #1992.

A petition to the White House asking Tesla to be allowed to sell directly in all states was launched in June 2013. We learned about it on this message board two weeks after it commenced when it had less than a thousand signatures. TMC members began signing and telling their friends. The goal of 100,000 signatures was reached within the required 30 days. The White House responded in July 2014: Response to We the People Petition on Tesla Motors | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

I encourage all TMC members to sign the current petition and spread the word: Increase the EV tax credit cap per manufacturer. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

I have also signed the petition...Come on people, this is for the greater good.

 

[Bgarret]

Does anyone else wonder what in the world is going on with the Model S refresh? Elon has called press conferences and events for apps that seek out the nearest supercharger ("end range anxiety anyone") - and the 4yr refresh on its signature product is slopped out on the website with no fanfare - almost stealthily. A 75D is slipped on to the model X configurator, but no mention of a battery upgrade for the Model S?

Not a single tweet yesterday from Tesla or Elon about the new Model S???

Something is awry - not sure whether good or bad, but something is distracting Tesla mightily.

 

[tanner]

Something is awry - not sure whether good or bad, but something is distracting Tesla mightily.

M3 prod

 

[tanner]

IDK what, if anything, it means... But the My Tesla section of TM is offline for "maintenance" Sign into My Tesla | Tesla Motors

 

[Julian Cox]

Julian your ability to spin & rewrite history is fantastic, i wish I can live in a delusional world.

Please provide your verifiable track record for calling the stock since you claim you have one & I hope it not self verified.

Here: Julian Cox now on TMC (summary) Here: Source: Julian Cox's Social feed | Seeking Alpha

It would be a shortcut to the same answer to note the absence of TMC commentary saying it ain't so.

Then here:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/search/434059/

 

[uselesslogin]

Not a single tweet yesterday from Tesla or Elon about the new Model S???

Yeah who launches a product like that - my only thought is the Australia leak caught them off guard and they had planned to push it back to later in the week due to the recall.

IDK what, if anything, it means... But the My Tesla section of TM is offline for "maintenance" Sign into My Tesla | Tesla Motors

Not just the login - the order page is down too.

 

[Johan]

Does anyone else wonder what in the world is going on with the Model S refresh? Elon has called press conferences and events for apps that seek out the nearest supercharger ("end range anxiety anyone") - and the 4yr refresh on its signature product is slopped out on the website with no fanfare - almost stealthily. A 75D is slipped on to the model X configurator, but no mention of a battery upgrade for the Model S?

Not a single tweet yesterday from Tesla or Elon about the new Model S???

Something is awry - not sure whether good or bad, but something is distracting Tesla mightily.

I agree it's strange. But historically their communication strategy has been all over the place. Some news just kind of appear, some news (that may be less important) are announced with lots of hoopla in events or "press calls". Sometimes news come in the form of blog posts, sometimes in tweets from the-man-himself and sometimes from Tesla's official Twitter. Sometimes someone at Tesla just announces some important news at random (Jerome Guillen devolving important financial info at a random event comes to mind). So far their new VP of communications hasn't shown himself any different than his predecessors.

Tl;dr: don't read to much in to this, it's just how messy Tesla's communications have always been.

 

[Krugerrand]

Neither of those 2 camps are going to change positions anytime soon, unless we get to FCF positive.

Even when Tesla (yes, when not if) becomes FCF positive I predict that the goalposts will simply be moved (again) by those who for their own personal reasons are convinced more negative energy should be invested in Tesla, TSLA, Elon Musk, EVs etc... We have only to go back a few years to the beginning to see several examples of goalpost moving. The same people who declared the end of days in 2012 are still declaring the end of days in 2016. Both sides are determined to be right. It's a classic good vs evil battle.

Meaning for short term that we're going to have a lot more volatility in TSLA moving forward regardless of FCF positive. Our consolation for this should be that the more negative people are towards Tesla, TSLA, Elon Musk, EVs etc..., and the more roadblocks get flung in their path, the more determined Team Tesla seems to get.

 

[spacekadet]

Does anyone know what the max pain is for this week's options?

 

[uselesslogin]

Hmm - actually I guess it is just MyTesla that is down. I can see the configurator from incognito mode.

 

[Johan]

Does anyone know what the max pain is for this week's options?

As of yesterday's close $240. This site is free and seems to calculate it correctly:

TSLA | maximum-pain.com

 

[tanner]

Hmm - actually I guess it is just MyTesla that is down. I can see the configurator from incognito mode.

I can confirm that it is currently down as well, at least for me.

 

[schonelucht]

How about this: what if Tesla in a quarterly report and call during this year came out with a "would-be" balance sheet showing how they would have been clearly free cash flow positive at a certain point in time (for example in Q2 or Q3) but at the same time an actual balance sheet where they're not FCF positive due to having revised their schedule and goals for Model 3 as a result of unexpectedly high demand and reservation count (resulting in increased investment for production capability and R&D, or "cash burn" as seems to be a preferred term by many)?

They already did that last quarter when they invented their 'core cash flow from operations metric'. The street is not going to fall for that. If they are not cash flow positive this quarter and they want to blame 'bringing the schedule forward' then they will have to show which specific factories/extra lines/additional battery plants/... that they spent the cash on this quarter above what was already planned. There is zero indication of that happening.

How about this : Tesla just show us a cash positive quarter. They have done it before on much lower sales volume.

 

[AudubonB]

Mod. Note:
The market's open.

Check your egos, your pet peeves and - most importantly for all members who aren't yourselves - your private squabbles at the door before you enter this thread.

Thank you.

 

[austinEV]

How about this: what if Tesla in a quarterly report and call during this year came out with a "would-be" balance sheet showing how they would have been clearly free cash flow positive at a certain point in time (for example in Q2 or Q3) but at the same time an actual balance sheet where they're not FCF positive due to having revised their schedule and goals for Model 3 as a result of unexpectedly high demand and reservation count (resulting in increased investment for production capability and R&D, or "cash burn" as seems to be a preferred term by many)?

Now, for some investors this would seem unnecessary and something that could have been easily deduced without being presented. On the order hand it seems like a big part of the investment community needs to be spoon fed this type of information. Or would it create backlash with bears yelling about creative accounting and presenting numbers that are not based in reality?

From my point of view it would be valuable if Tesla came out and told investors what their balance sheet would look like if they didn't keep reaching for reckless growth while at the same time saying they're going for it.

Oh god no. We don't really have to debate it since it is not like Elon will do what we say on a message board, but I really, really hope they don't take that route. That plays *directly* into the Bear's arguments, that TM is a cash-burning loser that depends on handouts. And creating yet another synthetic metric does the same-- that smacks of goalpost moving. Instead of using GAAP or lightly modified "non-GAAP" that they have been using for years, they create new metrics in 2 consecutive quarters? Heck, I would think something was fishy and I am captain of the fan club.

Plus, by sticking with the apparent plan of polishing up Q2 they will prove way more effectively the same point, that on an operational basis they are profitable. Then they can pivot instantly or in another quarter to say "well, we need to reinvest so we drive these great profits even higher in the future". That is language the market understands and Elon and Wheeler are in the mood to care about this right now.

There is a selfish aspect too, since (as Julian also said) there is a second very tradeable setup coming. I am aware Elon may not care about my trading plans, but here our interests are aligned I think.

Elon/Wheeler's options:

A) Push bad news into Q1 and and good news into Q2. Model S (refreshed!), Model X and even TE are all accretive right now. Spending is largely all optional in this quarter and they can just slow down and push things into Q3 or Q4. Push the line, even extra shifts if needed. Announce great deliveries July 3. Announce great earnings, FCF Mid Aug. Stock is propelled to new highs and they announce a cap raise of a few Billion to finance M3 expansion.
B) Try to do a Cap raise now on the relative strength of the M3 announcement while it is fresh on people's minds. Raise some money now and immediately start spending watering down the positive financials in Q2 and Q3 which will still be pretty good. Maybe even great if they just cannot spend fast enough, propelling the stock to new highs AFTER they did a cap raise at ~250.

B is an OK plan but why go that route when you have A? I wouldn't be shocked if they go that route. A bird in the hand and all that.

 

[FredTMC]

Does anyone else wonder what in the world is going on with the Model S refresh? Elon has called press conferences and events for apps that seek out the nearest supercharger ("end range anxiety anyone") - and the 4yr refresh on its signature product is slopped out on the website with no fanfare - almost stealthily. A 75D is slipped on to the model X configurator, but no mention of a battery upgrade for the Model S?

Not a single tweet yesterday from Tesla or Elon about the new Model S???

Something is awry - not sure whether good or bad, but something is distracting Tesla mightily.

Ya. M3 prod plans and cap raise

 

[Curt Renz]

I have also signed the petition...Come on people, this is for the greater good.

Thank you. Others can sign the petition to extend the EV tax credit at: Increase the EV tax credit cap per manufacturer. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

Meanwhile, it may be even more effective to write those who represent you in Congress.