Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

@flankspeed8

May I remind you:

$200 buy followed by a warning of low confidence the next day on a minor gain.
~ $160 buy - guaranteed $90 gain to $250.
M3 Unveil - Trade through for gains (no better entry on the news).
M3 trading day after - Pick up anything above $230
Seek @Causalien for exit.
$255 - agree with @Causalien on exit call.

Continual analysis feed. No errors that I am aware of.

What is not to like - you prefer some balance of disinformation to make things more congenial - is this a chat section or an investing section?

 

[Lump]

Julian you forget to mention you were banned twice as well, once for threatening physical violence.

 

[geneclean55]

Awash with green on the Asian markets... and perhaps most importantly, encouraging news regarding the Chinese economy stabilizing. If the US markets have another good day tomorrow, I hope TSLA keeps up.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Julian you forget to mention you were banned twice as well, once for threatening physical violence.

Can we please let go of this without piling on, especially since the claim made above is just wrong - Julian did mention that he was banned twice in his post here.

I get it that you are upset that Jesse can't participate in the Forum. I would wholeheartedly join you in advocating that he gets unbanned, as long as he pledges to refrain from personal attacks.

I am also a big fan of Julian's contribution to this Forum - his posts are a welcome breath of fresh air.

I do not enjoy squabbles, and piling on by other members by taking side in personal and disrespectful manner is not helpful in these situations. Can you please limit your postings on this matter to advocating and perhaps facilitating Jesse's reinstatement, and refrain from indulging in expressing your (already well known) dislike of Julian?

 

[MikeC]

For the record, I have found both Julian and Jesse to be very helpful. Past personal disagreements can be left in the past. This thread is best when there is a broad range of input from many intelligent investors.

 

[tanner]

I don't think there is any added hardware for AP 2.0. That blip on the mirror is a shadow/reflection artifact off the chrome from the studio lights.

Sadly you're right. I was buying into the early hype on another thread here.

 

[gene]

White House petition to increase federal EV credit to a greater number of vehicles: Increase the EV tax credit cap per manufacturer. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

 

[mrdoubleb]

This year, we were looking at Non-GAAP profitability Q2 and Q3, and GAAP in Q4. That was based on increased revenue and decreased capital spending. If they decide to increase spending to accelerate production of the Model 3, we could be looking at losses all year. That would be good for the company long term, but could cause the stock price to remain below 300 all year. Thoughts?

Depends. If they commit to a new target date for M3, say Q2 2017 the increased investments would be seen as positive i think.

BTW we need to keep expectations in check about accelerating M3 production. Not happening in 2016.

 

[mrdoubleb]

White House petition to increase federal EV credit to a greater number of vehicles: Increase the EV tax credit cap per manufacturer. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

am i the only one not impressed by those numbers? M3 reservation holders need to find out about this.

 

[FANGO]

So, to sum up: posts about Tesla-related product updates that happened today? Not allowed, will be looked down upon and mod will post more than once to warn people not to post such irrelevant information.

However, endless posts going on for months and months about stupid personal squabbles between two members who can't stop getting at each other's throats even when they haven't interacted in months, and everyone keeps talking about this stupid drama well after it has passed, and posts endlessly about it and takes sides like a bunch of middle schoolers? Totally allowed.

Seems to me we've got that a bit backwards. How about we stop talking about people (yes, that means everyone) and instead start talking about things that are relevant to anything at all. A lot of people stopped posting here because this page turned into a food fight instead of a discussion of technology and investment.

Feel free to sequester this post the same way every other ridiculous appeal about such-and-such fighter in the dumb-squabble-du-jour should be sequestered. Please do, in fact.

 

[Julian Cox]

Julian you forget to mention you were banned twice as well, once for threatening physical violence.

No I did not forget to mention that. I was banned for reacting honestly as I felt to being targeted by this individual but as everyone here will attest and can check for themselves you are a liar when you say that I threatened him with physical violence - simply that it was objectively true that he would likely not perpetrate slander to someone's face and that his misconduct directed towards me was fully attributable to the opportunity to libel another person under the cover of anonymity while cowering behind a computer keyboard. I am quite sure if I had ever met him that he would be far more polite and so would I - construing the dialogue any differently is and was mendacious on your part. Most importantly why are you still defending an individual that is now proven to have been seeking to cause you losses? That is unless you have an interest in resenting this predominantly TSLA long community being faithfully defended even under assault from taking the loss making stances he was so heavily promoting to the point of getting viscously personal when presented with actionable fact and reason based argument and rebuttal?

I said I had an outstanding and publicly verifiable track record of calling this stock (I do) and that I think I can seriously help navigate an un-nerving time for the stock (apparently I could). The guy went nuts and called me a fraud and trolled TMC with mocking and financially misleading straw-man misquotes of my writings all the while being flat wrong!

How about sparing a thought for those couple of long term TMC members that came on here to declare they had seen enough doom and were bailing at the bottom of a predictable (and predicted) $100 V-shaped chart spanning a matter of weeks. This was not a game for them was it - and for me it was heartbreakingly frustrating to be mired and drowned out in BS from this guy when people like that was exactly who I was trying to reach. I did not lose my cool with my troll for my sake - if I didn't care I would not have bothered - it was for theirs!

 

[Hogfighter]

TSLA has become more polarizing in the recent times. Those who previously thought 'TSLA just might be huge' are now looking at it with near certainty. Those who previously thought 'TSLA might go bankrupt' look giddily to the next QE report to see the massive cash burn.

Neither of those 2 camps are going to change positions anytime soon, unless we get to FCF positive.

 

[Julian Cox]

TSLA has become more polarizing in the recent times. Those who previously thought 'TSLA just might be huge' are now looking at it with near certainty. Those who previously thought 'TSLA might go bankrupt' look giddily to the next QE report to see the massive cash burn.

Neither of those 2 camps are going to change positions anytime soon, unless we get to FCF positive.

Precisely - and only one of those camps is not blinded by denial. FCF positive is not going to happen on Q1 ER and definitely will on Q2 ER / Q3 guidance and Q3 / Q4 guidance.

Hence recommending powder dry for the trade of the century. Every dip before then is your friend.

 

[FredTMC]

Precisely - and only one of those camps is not blinded by denial. FCF positive is not going to happen on Q1 ER and definitely will on Q2 ER / Q3 guidance and Q3 / Q4 guidance.

Hence recommending powder dry for the trade of the century. Every dip before then is your friend.

Thx. I disagree on FCF being positive in Q2 & Q3. This could affect TSLA on Q1 Earnings call. I now believe tesla will greatly increase CapEx beyond their original plans/guidance due to Model 3 reservations

This Acceleration of CapEx could actually make TSLA go higher due to higher growth guidance into next year

 

[Drax7]

Thx. I disagree on FCF being positive in Q2 & Q3. This could affect TSLA on Q1 Earnings call. I now believe tesla will greatly increase CapEx beyond their original plans/guidance due to Model 3 reservations

This Acceleration of CapEx could actually make TSLA go higher due to higher growth guidance into next year

I think for the sake of credibility, tesla should show positive Fcf before raising more capital.
Moreover positive Fcf will allow them to raise capital on much more favorable terms.
That is the sort of raise that will squeeze the shorts .

 

[Muaddid]

I think for the sake of credibility, tesla should show positive Fcf before raising more capital.
Moreover positive Fcf will allow them to raise capital on much more favorable terms.
That is the sort of raise that will squeeze the shorts .

Agreed, and they dont need to do it for a whole year, just plan around doing it for Q2, enabling them do do a capital raise in Q3 while ramping up spending. Not to mention, if they are planning on doing a capital raise to start a second factory/giga factory, they need to spend time finding the site first, which has little financial impact.

 

[Drax7]

Current reservations for the Model 3 represent $13 billion in sales, that's about 1/10th the size of Ford. The respective market caps are: $32 B and $50 B. This looks to be insane, but the stock market has never been rational. On the one hand, I'd like for my Tesla stock to continue to rise; on the other, I'm in the process of selling a house and wouldn't mind a temporary dip in the stock around when I close.

Check Walmart versus Amazon sales to valuation, this ford to tesla comparison
Falls in the same category . Don't go there it's meaningless, the birth of a disruptive
Gorilla , about to enter the tornado phase gets a super high valuation.

 

[FredTMC]

Thx. I disagree on FCF being positive in Q2 & Q3. This could affect TSLA on Q1 Earnings call. Reason is I now believe tesla will greatly increase CapEx beyond their original plans/guidance due to Model 3 reservations

I think for the sake of credibility, tesla should show positive Fcf before raising more capital.
Moreover positive Fcf will allow them to raise capital on much more favorable terms.
That is the sort of raise that will squeeze the shorts .

I hope you're right. I'm not sure Elon can 'hold his horses' till then

 

[SBenson]

Julian your ability to spin & rewrite history is fantastic, i wish I can live in a delusional world.

Please provide your verifiable track record for calling the stock since you claim you have one & I hope it not self verified.

Lump, can you please take this into a private chat? Really most people here are not interested in this.

 

[Curt Renz]

White House petition to increase federal EV credit to a greater number of vehicles: Increase the EV tax credit cap per manufacturer. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

am i the only one not impressed by those numbers? M3 reservation holders need to find out about this.

Signed #1992.

A petition to the White House asking Tesla to be allowed to sell directly in all states was launched in June 2013. We learned about it on this message board two weeks after it commenced when it had less than a thousand signatures. TMC members began signing and telling their friends. The goal of 100,000 signatures was reached within the required 30 days. The White House responded in July 2014: Response to We the People Petition on Tesla Motors | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

I encourage all TMC members to sign the current petition and spread the word: Increase the EV tax credit cap per manufacturer. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government