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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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The email about GF: (I don't think this violates any NDAs....Mods please delete if needed)

'Our experimental referral program has now come to a close. Firstly, I’d like to say thank you. Thank you for sharing your experiences, thank you for letting your friends drive your car, thank you for spreading the word.

Gigafactory Grand Opening Party
Although the exact date is to be confirmed, we expect the Gigafactory grand opening party to happen in the first half of 2016. Once the event details are set, our marketing team will be in touch with a personal invitation for yourself and a guest.

Should you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to email (removed by AlMc)

Thank you again for your support in helping us spread the electric revolution!'

With warm regards,

(removed TM staff member's name)
 
On the topic of the GF opening.. will the event signify that the first 25% is fully completed? And will that mean a significant increase in Tesla Energy production for the 2nd half of the year?

Building yes (25%).

Cell production hasn't started AFAIK and it's not known if Panasonic has started moving in Cell manufacturing equipment. Feel free to post if anyone has info.

TE power-packs production underway for months now.
 
Building yes (25%).

Cell production hasn't started AFAIK and it's not known if Panasonic has started moving in Cell manufacturing equipment. Feel free to post if anyone has info.

TE power-packs production underway for months now.

Thanks for the response. I understand that they have been producing and even installing power packs for some time now. I was wondering when we will see a significant ramp up in TE that really has an impact on financials.
 
Tesla down 3% for the day and good discussion on Short-Term Trading about buying, holding, selling....then this from you in a pedantic war of words with Vring....like the pedantic back and forth with Julian....can you please stop squatting in this thread and move the academic discussions elsewhere.
Please put me on your ignore list.

For my part, I believe that exaggerated claims of Tesla's importance should be challenged. If you are this passionate about Tesla falling a measly 3%, just wait until the stock is totally hyped up and people expect Musk to walk on water. There is a certain degree of conservatism that people should hold in their estimation of Tesla. The basic investment thesis is strong enough without the hype.
 
The CR report and the price action are pretty weird. For any one looking for quality issues and such, all the info is only a few clicks away all within this forum. So I'm quite surprised that this is "news".

Secondly, there are quite a lot of very satisfied/delighted customers as well. So you can pick a sample however you want and write the most glowing review or write the most horrible review.

Thirdly, what matters to investors is if Tesla is able to deliver or not and at what rate? If there are QC issues and SCs are getting involved, is it sustainable and up to what point? Again that too is info available on this forum but scattered all over the place. That should be true basis for selling or buying... I guess market and its bots are trigger happy. They see a headline and trade.

In a nutshell, for stock price's medium term horizon, like say 6 months, that CR report added zero value.
 
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Last one, because I think this changes the trend since we are out of that channel.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gLibg0fW/

GL to everyone holding right now.

Please, post away. No need to apologize. Its nice to see someone talking about short term price movements. I frequent this thread less and less thanks to a handful of members that insist on posting pages of conjecture that have nothing to do with the near future.

Thank you for posting.
 
Please put me on your ignore list.

For my part, I believe that exaggerated claims of Tesla's importance should be challenged. If you are this passionate about Tesla falling a measly 3%, just wait until the stock is totally hyped up and people expect Musk to walk on water. There is a certain degree of conservatism that people should hold in their estimation of Tesla. The basic investment thesis is strong enough without the hype.
Please put me on your ignore list.

For my part, I believe that exaggerated claims of Tesla's importance should be challenged. If you are this passionate about Tesla falling a measly 3%, just wait until the stock is totally hyped up and people expect Musk to walk on water. There is a certain degree of conservatism that people should hold in their estimation of Tesla. The basic investment thesis is strong enough without the hype.
JHM - sorry I was a little pissy. I have no desire to put you on my ignore list - I value your contributions, insight, knowledge and commitment to researching and inquiring on many technical aspects of energy storage, trading, and all things Tesla. I actually enjoy the long discussions on somewhat obscure topics on the weekend. My specific qualm was one of time and place. 3% means nothing LONG TERM - but SHORT TERM, where this thread ostensibly lives, it matters to those who are trading SHORT TERM. I didn't trade anything I held LONG TERM today, just some SHORT TERM calls that I exited. The discussions on these pages helped me to look at technical and other indicators to see if I wanted to hold, sell or buy.

Please continue to post at will - and I will infrequently disagree with your placement of a post or the timing. Sorry to waste everyone's time.
If there is anything else to share, let's PM each other.
 
Seems like hokum to me (see my earlier message) - hope some people got in quick when it just spiked low.

Yeah. Posted the link via Edit. (Found in Twitter $TSLA.) I skimmed it. It seems anecdotal.
These are the same things we've been seeing before, only more of it. Whether SP had this calculated in or not is to be seen.

Good job Consumer Reports, taking one owners story and making blanket messages and using the headlines for clickbait. For those who were waiting to buy in. Congrats. lol
Just one owner, but it still seems l like an excessive number of problems.
consumerreports.org said:
The 75-year-old retiree planned to drive it across the country with his wife and son to their home in New Rochelle, N.Y. But the new-car gleam of Karpf’s $138,000 titanium-on-beige P90D Model X faded with a string of problems as soon as he left the factory—delaying his journey.

One of the wildly designed, upswinging “falcon wing” rear doors failed to close. The other falcon wing door failed to open, except from the inside. One falcon door didn't sense an overhang and bashed into it, leaving a ding in the door. The driver’s door window wouldn’t motor down properly, until it dislodged a piece of chrome stripping that was restricting its progress.

All these problems required separate visits to the factory in Fremont and service center in Santa Monica, both of which Karpf noted handled the problems quickly and completely.

In addition, there are manufacturing design issues. For example, the Model X’s uniquely curved windshield has resulted in “double vision” distortion of headlights, taillights, and streetlamps at night. The effect is distracting and tiring, and it makes following distances difficult to gauge.

Then there was an AutoPilot self-driving issue that occurred when the road’s shoulder fell away; Karpf's car became confused, requiring Karpf to take command. Lastly, the Model X's heating system was insufficient to keep the SUV warm on a brisk Lake Tahoe evening.

“When you don’t have climate control on, with three people in the car, things can get a bit testy in there,” Karpf says.

Karpf is not alone. Tesla message boards are already swelling with complaints from Model X owners regarding balky doors, interior trim-piece tolerances, paint-spray quality, malfunctioning second-row seats, sheet-metal panel gaps, and climate control issues. The Model X is still very early in production, with only a few thousand vehicles produced to date.

Tesla also has conducted a recall of 2,700 Model X units for a third-row seat latch that did not fasten properly—a potential safety issue.

In response to Consumer Reports' questions about these quality issues, a Tesla spokeswoman wrote in an email: “We are committed to making the world's most reliable cars. While we have seen some issues with early Model X builds, the issues are not widespread, and we are working closely with each owner to respond quickly and proactively to address any problems. We will continue to do so until each customer is fully satisfied. This commitment is one of the reasons why 98 percent of our customers say they will buy another Tesla as their next car.”

Such issues are expected from a brand-new model. Consumer Reports recommends against buying a vehicle in its first year of production—especially a ground-up vehicle with the incredible complexity of a Tesla. Even the Toyota Prius, noted for bulletproof reliability, slipped slightly during its 2010 redesign.

<snip>
In Consumer Reports’ most recent annual reliability survey, the Model S sedan had a worse than average overall problem rate, and it quite nearly indexed as much-worse than average. The main problem areas involved the drivetrain, power equipment, charging equipment, giant iPad-like center console, and body and sunroof squeaks, rattles, and leaks. Consumer Reports releases reliability data in the fall.

The problems have involved not only new-from-factory 2015 Model S units, which grew in complexity with the addition of all-wheel drive and new infotainment features, but also with older models that are beginning to see years of wear and tear take their toll. (See more details on our Tesla Model S model page.)

The saving grace for owners has been Tesla’s attention to customer service. Almost every survey respondent made note of Tesla’s rapid response and repair time, despite the lack of a traditional dealer service network. For its early adopters, Tesla has made a practice of overdelivering on service problems under the factory warranty.

Tesla owners like Karpf typically identify themselves as early adopters willing to put up with being beta testers for new technology. When asked if he would endure such issues if the car carried a Lexus or Mercedes-Benz badge, he chuckles. But Karpf does not regret his purchase.

“This thing is beautiful,” he says. “The car’s power is incredible. It handles fantastic. It’s hard to believe it’s almost three tons. I’m rather impressed with the car overall.”
 
Take a look at daily trading over the past couple of weeks and you will see a trend of a plunge that peaks during the East Coast lunch hour, followed by a recovery or a partial recovery. This is not a normal TSLA trading pattern. I suspect that we're seeing a new strategy being utilized by shorts re-entering TSLA or you could even have some clever shorts doing a sell in the morning when volume is low and then rebuying after the drop has reached the bottom. It could be a repeating strategy that is working.

Of course one response you may consider is recognizing the pattern and getting ready to play it to your advantage tomorrow or the next time you see it.

Some daily trading charts can be found here.
 
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Model X has some basic facts: Safety; Autopilot; Acceleration; Handling. It's a car that has no rival on today's market. Also I saw many owner's feedback like this one. This CR hit piece is carefully disguised as a fair review. Just my two cents.
Can someone please tell me why Consumer Reports would write a "hit piece" considering their previous positive coverage? They are not Seeking Alpha, Breitbart or any other group with a clear anti-EV bias. Read the X forums, there are many problems reported by early adopters. This is a fact that can't be denied despite the desire to do so based on vested interests. What possible could CR gain from embracing an anti-EV approach? On the other hand, their credibility (if any) certainly can be undermined by failing to call these out. JMO though. We can see the impact that this has on the short term, but if indeed it is a non-issue like many assert, it will soon be forgotten and the upward trend will continue.
 
I'm not sure that I'm allowed to talk about it here, but I notice that Western Lithium (WLCDF) is on a bit of a roll. I thought about buying some stock when Tesla announced Nevada as the location of the GF, but never did. Short term their stock peaked then slowly died, but now it's back. Can't say I've seen anything to warrant this though, other than a general interest in lithium.
 
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I'm not sure that I'm allowed to talk about it here, but I notice that Western Lithium (WLCDF) is on a bit of a roll. I thought about buying some stock when Tesla announced Nevada as the location of the GF, but never did. Short term their stock peaked then slowly died, but now it's back. Can't say I've seen anything to warrant this though, other than a general interest in lithium.

I find market information interesting. If you have any insights on investment related information I think quite a few would be interested.
 
consumerreports.org said:
The 75-year-old retiree planned to drive it across the country with his wife and son to their home in New Rochelle, N.Y...

Lastly, the Model X's heating system was insufficient to keep the SUV warm on a brisk Lake Tahoe evening.
A potential problem?

The CR report and the price action are pretty weird. For any one looking for quality issues and such, all the info is only a few clicks away all within this forum. So I'm quite surprised that this is "news".

Secondly, there are quite a lot of very satisfied/delighted customers as well. So you can pick a sample however you want and write the most glowing review or write the most horrible review.

Thirdly, what matters to investors is if Tesla is able to deliver or not and at what rate? If there are QC issues and SCs are getting involved, is it sustainable and up to what point? Again that too is info available on this forum but scattered all over the place. That should be true basis for selling or buying... I guess market and its bots are trigger happy. They see a headline and trade.

In a nutshell, for stock price's medium term horizon, like say 6 months, that CR report added zero value.
Don't you think that the factory should do a better job on initial QC?

This is the ST Thread.

It's fair IMO to question the long term sustainability:
consumerreports.org said:
The saving grace for owners has been Tesla’s attention to customer service. Almost every survey respondent made note of Tesla’s rapid response and repair time, despite the lack of a traditional dealer service network. For its early adopters, Tesla has made a practice of overdelivering on service problems under the factory warranty.

One reason: For warranty issues, Tesla now covers tow costs for up to 500 miles to the nearest Tesla Service Center in North America.

Tesla also claims that, because the factory, service centers, and engineering and design teams all work from the same platforms, it can address issues and implement scalable fixes at a rate that's unprecedented across the industry.

Tesla said in its earnings report for last year that "the cost of first-year repair claims on cars produced in 2015 was at about half the level of cars produced in 2014, and about one quarter the level of cars produced in 2012."

However, as the units in operation continue to multiply, the question arises of whether Tesla can keep up with the service issuesespecially when the Model 3 compact sedan starts production en masse in late 2017.
 
Can someone please tell me why Consumer Reports would write a "hit piece" considering their previous positive coverage? They are not Seeking Alpha, Breitbart or any other group with a clear anti-EV bias. Read the X forums, there are many problems reported by early adopters. This is a fact that can't be denied despite the desire to do so based on vested interests. What possible could CR gain from embracing an anti-EV approach? On the other hand, their credibility (if any) certainly can be undermined by failing to call these out. JMO though. We can see the impact that this has on the short term, but if indeed it is a non-issue like many assert, it will soon be forgotten and the upward trend will continue.

Guess they got bought and all their ICE purchasing just got way cheaper or something of the sort. They are doing themselves no favors in terms of credibility. I want a facelift Model S this year, but I will also try a Model X just in case I like it more and I don't give a rats about their opinion which I regard as blatant dishonesty ever since they started doing this last year when the dishonestly misrepresented a small sample of early production Model S teething issues as though it was applicable to the purchase of a brand new Model S.

It's disgusting but expected. CR is not the only business connected to the periphery of the ICE industry that will cling to it like it has no choice but to shackle itself to a sinking ship. And when they realize they roped themselves to the wrong mast and change their tune consumers will just wonder wtf they are trying to pull.
 
Guess they got bought and all their ICE purchasing just got way cheaper or something of the sort. They are doing themselves no favors in terms of credibility. I want a facelift Model S this year, but I will also try a Model X just in case I like it more and I don't give a rats about their opinion which I regard as blatant dishonesty ever since they started doing this last year when the dishonestly misrepresented a small sample of early production Model S teething issues as though it was applicable to the purchase of a brand new Model S.

It's disgusting but expected. CR is not the only business connected to the periphery of the ICE industry that will cling to it like it has no choice but to shackle itself to a sinking ship. And when they realize they roped themselves to the wrong mast and change their tune consumers will just wonder wtf they are trying to pull.
O, dyssey! Blind AND deaf bobbyheads. Ignore the sirens.
<Carriage return>
 
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