Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

400k deposits = $400 million. It also looks like it's increasing by ~5000 (or $5million) every day. Is Tesla able to use the money from deposits to increase production? This seems very material and zero analysts are including it in their quarterly forecasts.

Since Tesla clearly says the money from deposits will not be held separately, in escrow, or trust fund, does this mean Tesla has complete discretion about how it is used?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Motor Trend has a teaser video about an exclusive photo shoot of Model 3 at the GF tomorrow.

I was wrong about the date, apparently photo shoot is going to be today. MT arrived at GF about an hour ago:

 

[Julian Cox]

I know this idea didn't take ground, but what if when the cars are fully autonomous, they can just take themselves to a battery swap station.....done and done.

Naturally this is the correct answer except that they will just go to an automated charging station.

Tesla has even shown prototypes of the automation mechanism. The snake charger. Battery swap just adds unnecessary cost and complexity for too little gain in speed over Supercharging and before someone mentions it wireless charging wherever it was contemplated be it in the road or in a garage would add ~ 10% energy costs to the entire transport system in induction losses (about as attractive as almost doubling the energy costs of a 85% efficient vehicle fleet) and wireless induction which is an AC technology cannot by definition make a DC pack connection for DC fast charging and hence can never perform Supercharging - and the drive up and it just happens benefit of wireless is fully supplied by the autonomous snake charger anyway which can naturally perform DC Supercharging with zero induction losses and trivial losses of any kind.

So Musk feels ready to confirm autonomous fleet services. Remember what I said about that and the OTA profit sharing model that turns every Tesla customer big or small into a profit-making fleet operator or an owner with significant positive residual values on his or her purchase. The first wave of profit makers are the current Model 3 reservation holders.

True story.

P.S. For the special few that will violently disagree and get personal about it, we know who you are already.... So please, Seeking Alpha is only a click away and there your views and style of debating the messenger and not the message will be among good company.

 

[Seesaw]

Interesting seeing inside the factory for the first time that Tesla call the factory 'Giggafactory 1'....

 

[JeffreyY]

Musk's Norway interview. A couple of interesting points:

1) Gigafactory is meant to maximize the economies of scale in battery production with raw materials going in and finished batteries coming out.
2) Gigafactory production will equal the entire current world's output of batteries
3) GIgafactory will drop battery costs by 30%
4) Gigafactory is diamond shape and points true North

 

[ggies07]

Naturally this is the correct answer except that they will just go to an automated charging station.

Tesla has even shown prototypes of the automation mechanism. The snake charger. Battery swap just adds unnecessary cost and complexity for too little gain in speed over Supercharging and before someone mentions it wireless charging wherever it was contemplated be it in the road or in a garage would add ~ 10% energy costs to the entire transport system in induction losses (about as attractive as almost doubling the energy costs of a 85% efficient vehicle fleet) and wireless induction which is an AC technology cannot by definition make a DC pack connection for DC fast charging and hence can never perform Supercharging - and the drive up and it just happens benefit of wireless is fully supplied by the autonomous snake charger anyway which can naturally perform DC Supercharging with zero induction losses and trivial losses of any kind.

So Musk feels ready to confirm autonomous fleet services. Remember what I said about that and the OTA profit sharing model that turns every Tesla customer big or small into a profit-making fleet operator or an owner with significant positive residual values on his or her purchase. The first wave of profit makers are the current Model 3 reservation holders.

True story.

Yeah, I remember about the snake. I was just going off of what esk8mw said on worrying about charging locations. I was thinking if Tesla had one or a few battery swap stations within a big city, then it could be done with minimum worry. Though, they could easily put a bunch of chargers in one place and let the cars go to them as well...I like the snake device the best though...

 

[The Blue Owl]

Interesting seeing inside the factory for the first time that Tesla call the factory 'Giggafactory 1'....

I want to test a theory that Elon likes to communicate via pseudo-subliminal messaging (in addition to screaming his plans to the world at the top of his lungs, that is. Judging by the media, that doesn't seem to work that well.) For instance, his Twitter picture is currently showing him talking on the phone, curiously happy. That means he is working the phones to put together the necessary set of deals to insert Tesla into a new orbit. According to my dog-whistle theory of investing, as soon as he hangs up the phone and picks up the violin to conclude the master class, I should buy calls.

And I probably will.

 

[Julian Cox]

Einstein is rightly or wrongly credited with saying that compounding is the most powerful force in the universe, of the physical world that is true up to and including the nuclear chain reaction. But there is one better that can be implemented economically: The positive feedback loop which means Efficiency greater than 100%. This is not allowed in nature because over time anything that grew or gained energy like that that would swallow the whole universe given enough time and in the universe there is enough time such that it would already have been swallowed.

Well that is the economic outlook for Tesla when it throws the switch to selling cars that make customers richer not poorer the more cars they buy and the universe set to be swallowed whole is called the auto industry - or more broadly personal transportation. Tesla will take its cut of the upside for connecting the service and it will grow as fast as labor can be allocated with money no object.

Also a true story.

 

[esk8mw]

I want to test a theory that Elon likes to communicate via pseudo-subliminal messaging (in addition to screaming his plans to the world at the top of his lungs, that is. Judging by the media, that doesn't seem to work that well.) For instance, his Twitter picture is currently showing him talking on the phone, curiously happy. That means he is working the phones to put together the necessary set of deals to insert Tesla into a new orbit. According to my dog-whistle theory of investing, as soon as he hangs up the phone and picks up the violin to conclude the master class, I should buy calls.

And I probably will.

Nope, that's Elon getting a margin call from Goldman Sachs after the stock price drops back to $30!!1!

(/bear)

 

[esk8mw]

Looks like we are forming a wedge pattern on the day. Should break out up or down very soon. I'm going to say down given low volume (easy to manipulate) and overall market conditions today.

 

[BobSk]

Yeah, I remember about the snake. I was just going off of what esk8mw said on worrying about charging locations. I was thinking if Tesla had one or a few battery swap stations within a big city, then it could be done with minimum worry. Though, they could easily put a bunch of chargers in one place and let the cars go to them as well...I like the snake device the best though...

The battery swap idea is forever gone. It's not even competitive today. Charging locations keep increasing, charging speed also improve gradually.

 

[techmaven]

The battery swap idea is forever gone. It's not even competitive today. Charging locations keep increasing, charging speed also improve gradually.

I don't like ruling it out.

I think the location wasn't right. Ideally, battery swap stations are slightly outside of major cities. Like if I'm approaching a city and I'm near empty... I'd like to pick up a fresh battery pack and drive around with it. Then on the way out, I pick up my original now-charged battery pack to head home. The other reason is an unexpected trip out of town, I drop my partially charged battery and pick up a full one. The existing station doesn't permit either use case... it's in the middle between SF and LA. Imagine if San Juan Capistrano was a battery swap station. I think our view of that would be very different.

 

[ClownMouth]

There probably ought to come a point when giving away more is too much information.

Put it this way, removing all doubt that Model 3 is in the bag at double or triple previously announced target production volumes with or without the need for accelerator capital solely for the US market and that the company is doing great. But if the market is feeling generous well........

Is this to suggest a major US partnership/investment by a SV company?

 

[30seconds]

P.S. For the special few that will violently disagree and get personal about it, we know who you are already.... So please, Seeking Alpha is only a click away and there your views and style of debating the messenger and not the message will be among good company.

I haven't seen anyone get personal about disagreements here in a awhile. I do think, however, having a wide range of views is very valuable and would ask those that disagree with you to keep posting.

 

[Runarbt]

What may make sense is a system where once you enter your destination a small automous vehicle picks you up, drops you off at the optimum time/ place for you to take an other larger shared transport solution and then a separate vehicle is timed to arrive on the other end to take you to your final destination.

There are a lot of solutions (not all optimal) for shared mobility with autonomous components

I do think ppl would like to have to change vehicle 3times during a trip. Most prefere to sit down and relax.

I think it might be more like smal units which connect to a larger "train/buss", and disconnect when they get close to their destination.

 

[ibcs]

75,000 shares sold after hours down to 246 - Any news to explain the drop?

 

[Gerardf]

75,000 shares sold after hours down to 246 - Any news to explain the drop?

Will probably jump back up in a moment. This is often seen.

Edit : ok, it is back. But was not what I thought.

 

[MikeC]

75,000 shares sold after hours down to 246 - Any news to explain the drop?

I'm only seeing volume ~13,000.

 

[MikeC]

Prob because GOOG dropping AH?

 

[AlMc]

75,000 shares sold after hours down to 246 - Any news to explain the drop?

Google getting slammed....at the moment.....all ships float up/down

Mike C beat me by seconds!