Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

I'm thinking it will closer to 425,000..... which is still a staggering amount.

That's 424,980. You forgot to subtract Anton's 20 !

Agreed. The 80K-90K guidance is just BS to fool the investors in Q1 CC to save SP. Q1 model S delivery only 12K, that's limited by demand not by any production BS excuse.

Maoing, however bearish sounding is right. Demand for X is soft for now. Model S must hold the cash flow going until 3. Likely rescue comes from Tesla Energy + (a bit lower possibility) the X becoming a smash hit in China (which it's designed for in the first place).

I think maoing is saying that he thinks MS demand is soft?

I don't believe that the MX was designed for China. I believe that it's designed for soccer moms in the US and Europe. I think unless the FWD's turn out to the unreliable it will be a success everywhere (US, Europe and China), similar to the MS or better.

 

[CButterK]

That's 424,980. You forgot to subtract Anton's 20.

Yup. Per Elon's tweet, 18 of Antw@t's 20 will be cancelled...

Elon Musk on Twitter[/QUOTE]

 

[Seesaw]

That's 424,980. You forgot to subtract Anton's 20 !

I don't believe that the MX was designed for China. I believe that it's designed for soccer moms in the US and Europe. I think unless the FWD's turn out to the unreliable it will be a success everywhere (US, Europe and China), similar to the MS or better.

The X in many ways is the most amazing car ever built by the human race... Something that can run on sunshine, seat 7, tow 5000 pounds and outrun a Ferrari. It will be interesting to see the language of production going forward - whether they are ramping up still or steadied at a set number a week.

 

[BobSk]

Yup. Per Elon's tweet, 18 of Antw@t's 20 will be cancelled...

Elon Musk on Twitter

I think that guy is counting on refund of all 20. Someone get paid to write bad stuff probably cannot afford one. I am wondering who is paying all of these guys who have been diligently spreading FUD ever since TSLA's IPO. If they put that huge effort on anything else, would probably have achieved something positive.

I read one hedge fund manager spent 75 million dollars to attack a company (after he shorted $1B on that stock, not TSLA though). FBI started watching them. It's a fascinating story.

 

[BobSk]

When Elon tweets a lot, I think he is not terribly busy.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm thinking X will pleasantly surprise. I think some of the issues around some early cars and lack of demos is a symptom of prioritising deliveries.

I'm hoping for a good report on Model X, but I'm not counting on it.

On the positive side, the Model X forum here at TMC has had a reasonable amount of activity: customers are taking delivery, and they seem generally happy with build quality. Some minor fit/finish issues are noted. Also, in the "random sightings" thread, people are seeing Model X driving around, and car carriers loaded with Model X for transport to Service Centers are also captured in photographs.

So, what I want to hear from Elon is the current production rate on Model X, as well as the number of Model X delivered each week. Basically, I want to know whether this ramp situation has resolved or not.

 

[EinSV]

If there really is the glowing Car & Driver MX review floating around, let's get that out there today. I've only read excerpts posted here on TMC. Love to see a tweet by TM and Elon today. Juice it...

Confirmed -- just read the review (subscription only), which is very positive except the 'dumb' FWDs. Very good summary below.

Punchline is: “…the Model X really has no competition… even against fossil-fueled SUVs, the Tesla’s effortless performance and efficiency can’t be matched.”

“The acceleration hits so hard that it causes an involuntary and embarrassing ‘uhhhn,’ a sound usually reserved for prostate exams… We tested the Tesla on the same day that we ran the McLaren 570S and the Porsche 911 GT3 RS at the track. Only the Model X’s acceleration caused an unintentional moan.”

“The aluminum structure is a fortress of solitude.”

Regarding the windshield, “We were left dumbfounded, like slack-jawed tourists endlessly looking upward.”

“Whoever does Tesla’s chassis tuning is a genius.”

“A thick-rimmed steering wheel…provides rich and consistent feedback that would make us break out the champagne if we found it in a modern BMW.”

“…the Model X really has no competition… even against fossil-fueled SUVs, the Tesla’s effortless performance and efficiency can’t be matched.”

The author was no fan of the Falcon Wing doors, but concedes the wow factor -- "And yet, the dumbest thing about the Model X is the first thing you will show off."

 

[GoTslaGo]

When Elon tweets a lot, I think he is not terribly busy.

I heard that he's personally watching the QC on the Model X's. If he's not terribly busy, that's a great thing!

 

[doctoxics]

How does Ben Kallo get 16,500 deliveries for Q2? Tesla announced 750 Model X deliveries/wk on April 4th. The X line appeared to get stalled for a few weeks in mid April but now seems to be moving again. One would expect a 1,000 X deliveries/wk by the end of June if there are no additional issues causing delays. Q2 Model X deliveries should be for 13 weeks at 750/wk for a total of 9,750. Assume what we lost in mid April was recovered by the ramp up to 1,000/wk by quarter end. Tesla delivered 12,420 Model S in Q1 with no production the first week of January. Assuming 13 weeks of production in Q2, we likely have 13,000 Model S delivered. Assuming the Model X ramp is moving forward to the full production rate of 1,000/wk, Models S and X deliveries in Q2 should exceed 22,000 (9,750 + 13,000).

 

[Seesaw]

I wonder if there were some S order holdouts waiting for the refresh.

 

[Papafox]

Tesla cannot be too concerned about Model X demand, because it has failed to stock the vehicle in Tesla Stores. Once Xs make their way into more stores, the orders will multiply. The combination of rave reviews for this product plus an ability to take a test drive in a P90D will keep the production line filled (what's not to like about an SUV that accelerates and handles like a Porsche sportscar?). The move from 70kwh to 75kwh battery for the X was extremely smart, because now the cheapest X has suitable range for most journies within the U.S.

 

[geneclean55]

Tesla cannot be too concerned about Model X demand, because it has failed to stock the vehicle in Tesla Stores. Once Xs make their way into more stores, the orders will multiply. The combination of rave reviews for this product plus an ability to take a test drive in a P90D will keep the production line filled. The move from 70kwh to 75kwh battery for the X was extremely smart, because now the cheapest X has suitable range for most journies within the U.S.

i think this is true, but in terms of short term price movements, i think people were hoping for stellar numbers for q2ER, short-squeeze, yada-yada

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

They did this same conference in 2014 for sure because we considered sponsoring it with our local utility. Not sure if they have done it other times. Earnings call is at 2:30, plenty of time in Elon's schedule!

Did Elon say anything about the quarterly results at event in 2014? Tesla is in a quiet period before earnings release. However, if Tesla releases its earnings report early I think Elon can elaborate on specifics from the report at the event.

Speaking of other interesting info.. Does anyone know anything about this level 2 wireless charging system that looks to be built with Tesla in mind?

Meet the Plugless Level 2 wireless EV charging station

 

[sundaymorning]

Here comes the "demand soft" conspiracy theorist nuts. For newbies out there, be weary of this "rinse and repeat" ideology within this forum. Whenever Tesla slows its product, shuts down its factory for tooling, or the US/Euro/Asia delivery dates change, these knuckleheads return like a pack of hyenas. Even at the current S production which is 12,000 S first Q, the minimum and most bearish outlook goes something like this:
Q1: 12,000 S
Q2: 13,000 S
Q3: 14,000 S
Q4: 15,000 S

This leaves room for 26,000 X full year to meet minimum production of 80,000. Or you can look at it this way: all those talks of X parts being delayed by suppliers published by reputable agencies were false... Tesla had no supplier issues. The third row seat issue was an illusion as a scapegoat for an eventual miss all mastermind by a lying scumbag CEO name Elon.

 

[BobSk]

I heard that he's personally watching the QC on the Model X's. If he's not terribly busy, that's a great thing!

Yes that's the point. When there are difficult issues, he gets really busy and no time for tweeting.

 

[BornToFly]

My X went into production the first week of April. It is still at the factory undergoing final inspection. If it takes a month to build and inspect a car before shipping, I don't see how they can hit their production targets. Worried about Q2. At least I don't have to worry about the 285 covered calls I sold using my core holdings anymore....

 

[Papafox]

My X went into production the first week of April. It is still at the factory undergoing final inspection. If it takes a month to build and inspect a car before shipping, I don't see how they can hit their production targets. Worried about Q2. At least I don't have to worry about the 285 covered calls I sold using my core holdings anymore....

Rdalcanto, would you be so kind as to report on this thread when you take delivery of your X?

 

[Julian Cox]

Here comes the "demand soft" conspiracy theorist nuts. For newbies out there, be weary of this "rinse and repeat" ideology within this forum. Whenever Tesla slows its product, shuts down its factory for tooling, or the US/Euro/Asia delivery dates change, these knuckleheads return like a pack of hyenas. Even at the current S production which is 12,000 S first Q, the minimum and most bearish outlook goes something like this:
Q1: 12,000 S
Q2: 13,000 S
Q3: 14,000 S
Q4: 15,000 S

This leaves room for 26,000 X full year to meet minimum production of 80,000. Or you can look at it this way: all those talks of X parts being delayed by suppliers published by reputable agencies were false... Tesla had no supplier issues. The third row seat issue was an illusion as a scapegoat for an eventual miss all mastermind by a lying scumbag CEO name Elon.

What is all this about Model X demand? Are we discussing hesitancy in the rate of people joining the end of a very long line until they are sure X production is running smoothly or something materially different?

In fact is there any credible reason to believe that the demand backlog for Model X has ever dropped lower than 15,000 - 20,000 units at any time since it was hovering around 30,000 - or any reason to imagine more than a tiny handful of those 30,000 have magically found a better deal from another vendor and won't be back with four of their friends when they are satisfied production is smooth?

Anything at all but the fantasies of some miserable bears?

 

[vgrinshpun]

What is all this about Model X demand? Are we discussing hesitancy in the rate of people joining the end of a very long line until they are sure X production is running smoothly or something materially different?

In fact is there any credible reason to believe that the demand backlog for Model X has ever dropped lower than 15,000 - 20,000 units at any time since it was hovering around 30,000 - or any reason to imagine more than a tiny handful of those 30,000 have magically found a better deal from another vendor and won't be back with four of their friends when they are satisfied production is smooth?

Anything at all but the fantasies of some miserable bears?

Ignorance is a bliss.
Haven't you seen this??
Tesla is toast.

 

[nienco2]

What is all this about Model X demand? Are we discussing hesitancy in the rate of people joining the end of a very long line until they are sure X production is running smoothly or something materially different?

In fact is there any credible reason to believe that the demand backlog for Model X has ever dropped lower than 15,000 - 20,000 units at any time since it was hovering around 30,000 - or any reason to imagine more than a tiny handful of those 30,000 have magically found a better deal from another vendor and won't be back with four of their friends when they are satisfied production is smooth?

Anything at all but the fantasies of some miserable bears?

OK, I'll bite, I know you prefer your views not go blindly unchallenged.
We know for certain there are some people who switched X reservations for S since the reveal and then even more recently given X delays and issues, how many? only TM knows. Probably helped boost S numbers, so kind of a trade off. Some have cancelled and some are waiting to see and drive the car. What gives me pause is the deafening silence of talk about all the "new" deposits taken on X's since 9/30. My guess would be if the numbers were impressive EM would have found time to at least tweet that out, a la "off the hook powerwall interest." I've heard it said the big rush will come when there are demos in the SC's for people to test drive. Well I guess we'll see but then what about all the 3 reservations? Will they need to be test driven before the cash actually changes hands?

I know the X production and quality issues will be/are sorted out. But, this vehicle was focused grouped for "soccer moms" and yet some of the complicating features seem at odds with that premise. Very few self identified women buying in on their own initiative. Read the X forums and you will see the majority are very tech savvy, curious and patient individuals for whom figuring stuff out is a clear strength. Sound like "soccer moms" to you? Plenty of trumpeting the 3 reservations but given that's at least 18 months away from seeing car #1 why not more information on the car that has to fill the void in the meantime? Q1 income should be okay since the X's that got sold for the most part were SIG's with ASP of around $140k. btw I actually owned an Osborne computer 30 some years ago so there's that I worry about as well. Why make so public a display to compete with yourself so far in advance? If there is a good rationale to explain how introducing the 3 will not impact S orders I am willing to be enlightened. Maybe we'll get some "color" on that as the analysts like to say on the 4th.
cheers