Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

Fresh off the press - another media review of Model X

We Took the Tesla Model X for a Test Drive

An interesting bit for investors:

"the Palo Alto company is now delivering the seven-seater in solid numbers, suggesting that it was time to give the luxury family vehicle a road test."

Thx for posting.

I just noticed in the MX June Deliveries thread that someone posted the TM site has moved to JULY for new MX orders

MS new orders have also moved from JUNE to "LATE June"

 

[geneclean55]

I am hoping for another week or two of chop, and then i can pick up some calls prior to delivery numbers coming out.

 

[MitchJi]

With respect to the question as to why Tesla is raising only $1.4bn or so at present - I have two possible answers.

Reason 3. They won't need any more funds, until either something like 6-8 months or until after the M3 launch. How is that possible? A combination of ways.

Remember the people claiming that Tesla's margin on Powerpacks was only 15%? Even if that lowball figure was correct (it was not), how much would they be when Tesla starts using cells produced at the GF for a savings of 35-45%?

Or what's going to happen to their income when they hit 1k S and X per week?

 

[larmor]

Cramer likes the offering.... World is now upside down....
Jim Cramer says Tesla could raise as much as $3 billion in its 'well-timed' stock offering.

 

[EinSV]

Reason 3. They won't need any more funds, until either something like 6-8 months or until after the M3 launch. How is that possible? A combination of ways.

Remember the people claiming that Tesla's margin on Powerpacks was only 15%? Even if that lowball figure was correct (it was not), how much would they be when Tesla starts using cells produced at the GF for a savings of 35-45%?

Or what's going to happen to their income when they hit 1k S and X per week?

From the press reports Archambault seemed to think they could fund the rest of the $ needed for the Model 3 ramp from earnings plus the ABL. Not sure what assumptions he was using for TE or S/X profits.

 

[FredTMC]

Cramer likes the offering.... World is now upside down....
Jim Cramer says Tesla could raise as much as $3 billion in its 'well-timed' stock offering.

Yeah I saw that too. Cramer has been middle of the road with TSLA lately. Not bashing it. Doesn't recommend the stock but understands people love the cars, the mission, and the stock.

He agrees with the cap raise.

 

[Jayjs20]

Kinda regret not hopping in on that mini-rally now. Almost straight up from 208 to 213 now.

 

[Fallenone]

Fresh off the press - another media review of Model X

We Took the Tesla Model X for a Test Drive

An interesting bit for investors:

"the Palo Alto company is now delivering the seven-seater in solid numbers, suggesting that it was time to give the luxury family vehicle a road test."

I can't believe Tesla provided a vehicle with such obvious fit issues...

 

[SBenson]

Thx for posting.

I just noticed in the MX June Deliveries thread that someone posted the TM site has moved to JULY for new MX orders

MS new orders have also moved from JUNE to "LATE June"

There is mounting evidence that X production ramped up. I am feeling optimistic about the delivery number.

In my view X ramp has been the single biggest factor in putting a lid on the stock price. Starting Q2 delivery number we should see a sustained rally.

 

[MitchJi]

I can't believe Tesla provided a vehicle with such obvious fit issues...

They really need to nail those problems before consumers reports buys one for testing.

And they also need to fix the baby seat crushing software.

 

[Drax7]

My hunch is that at the hint of 2000 cars per week production the stock will
Rally substantially. That's about $200 million in revenues per week and assures
The firm is in a stable footing. That is revenues exceed all costs.

 

[Fallenone]

There is mounting evidence that X production ramped up. I am feeling optimistic about the delivery number.

In my view X ramp has been the single biggest factor in putting a lid on the stock price. Starting Q2 delivery number we should see a sustained rally.

Or as early as June 1st/2nd for the inside EVs estimates. I'm feeling good about X deliveries from browsing the X sub-forum here. Not perfect, but steady improvement in rate and quality.

 

[FredTMC]

My hunch is that at the hint of 2000 cars per week production the stock will
Rally substantially. That's about $200 million in revenues per week and assures
The firm is in a stable footing. That is revenues exceed all costs.

Yep, as others have mentioned, Q2 really should beat guidance of 17k deliveries

I'd be shocked if they didn't "get'er done".

 

[Renaud]

I'm kind of lost a little bit there.
Is this secondary happening to fund the Model 3, or this happening to fund the Model 3 two years in advance?

If it's the second option isn't just an advance on future income?
If for the next two years they would produce 160k combined X and S at an ASP of 95k$, with GM of 20% and that half of this is used for R&D and tooling that's:

160 000 x 95 000 * 20% * 1/2 = 1,5 Billion

 

[Fallenone]

Added some shares and LEAPs yesterday and today. I think the D is over and TU began yesterday.

 

[Jayjs20]

And...up we go.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA has shuffled off the ball & chains since about 1pm EST. Can it hold a close over $216? If so this would be a recent high... highest this month anyway, I think.

 

[MitchJi]

I am one of those who has been guilty of to much banter and confrontation in this thread in the last week. I've become an avid user of the Ignore feature and it works really well, although some pages contain 13 posts instead of 20

Thank you for the suggestion. You motivated me to add three members to my ignore list, previously limited to one member. I don't believe I'll miss their most foolish posts though because they are normally quoted several times.

So the best I can hope for is to miss the dumbest posts one time but see them quoted multiple times.

 

[MartinAustin]

There have got to be shorts throwing in the towel somewhere.

Obviously the Model S continues to sell well.

Obviously the Model X ramp-up is almost complete and production is approaching "full-strength."

And obviously now, the Gigafactory and Model 3 manufacturing equipment can be set up in time for a ramp next year.

(I hope shorts realise the Gigafactory doesn't have to be 100% finished off before Tesla start producing volume quantities of Model 3 Battery Packs... it'll be in full swing by the end of next year)

 

[austinEV]

Added some shares and LEAPs yesterday and today. I think the D is over and TU began yesterday.

I have been trying to make sense of the strategy. I had been predicting they would engineer a great Q2, goose up the price and do a cap raise, being less dilutive and better for shareholders. The problem(s) with that theory are that it is really specifically good for existing stock holders and not really for anyone else. If it forced a short squeeze that would allow a larger total haul in the cap raise, but who would participate in the secondary at the top of a squeeze...

So...

NEW THEORY, GET YOUR FOIL HATS ON:

They floated this idea to GS and GS said "yeah right, you want us to offer shares in Sept at an all time high. No thanks, our buyers would prefer to buy now and also enjoy the runup you say you can engineer. Do the cap raise now, getting slightly less money with eager buyers instead of later with buyers who will not understand why they should buy at $290." So to grease the wheels they sold the good 6 month story and got slightly less money, but much earlier. Elon and team are still on the hook to deliver gangbuster Q2/Q3 results to cover the asses of those who just came in on the secondary.

Also, market makers kept their thumb on the scale yesterday AH, this morning premarket and today during the trading day to make sure the reaction was seen as positive.