mejojo
Active Member
They will keep posting as long as someone is willing to engage them. I think it's funny. It's most funny when they say they are just trying to keep some poor souls from losing their money.
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They will keep posting as long as someone is willing to engage them. I think it's funny. It's most funny when they say they are just trying to keep some poor souls from losing their money.
Briefly unignoring perfectillogic to point out the straw man. TSLA is selling the car at a price point where they ARE making money.
/end unignore & back to my ignore cave.
Perfectlogic
Member
That is simply not true. I bet you haven't even spent time analyzing the income statement and is just letting your confirmation bias guide you like most people here.
The company is not designed to show a profit at current size. The market obviously understands the plan, as Musk diluting equity is well received.
The question is not profits, but liquidity. As long as Musk has adequate access to the resources he needs to build a well differentiated brand, investors are happy. If you think Tesla should be run for good net income now then this is not the company for you.
From my point of view Tesla only faces execution risks over the next five years.
I'll add that demand discussions might be more productive if they revolve around customer acquisition costs.
I get the impression that others have explained this to you already. Your claims and statements conflate data from multiple streams with different timings and make you a victim of your own assumptions. With Tesla you cannot link production capacity and deliveries with demand in the way you are suggesting. There are many other considerations from QC pass rate to deliberate cash flow regulation, upgrade rollout plans, regional delivery plans and supply chain bottlenecks - and more. This is not a simple case of an oversupply of cars waiting on dealer lots subject to the whim of consumers to either show up and buy them or not.
Therefore to call people that clearly understand and have a handle on these complexities in far greater detail than you do "absolutely delusional" is inappropriate when in the cold light of day you are merely behind their learning curve. And obviously so.
Perfectlogic
Member
I am not saying Tesla should be showing a net profit right now, but I think it's bad that they haven't turned significantly profitable from their S operations even at this scale. This raises the risk of the Model 3 taking a while to be profitable, or if they are even able to make a profit at the $35k selling point. If Tesla's cash flow problems continues for several years the dilution will be huge.
Perfectlogic
Member
Sure, you can't understand entry level logic and I'm behind the curve. Whatever you say, as long as it is bullish people will agree with you here.
Welcome to my entry level logic. Both bullish and Bearish. Hint. This is not a debate where you come out on top. Capiche?
They could be profitable at this scale. But probably not long term.
The right thing is to do what they are doing, pump every last cent of incoming cash flow into further growth. Once they get up to 1-2 million cars per year they can ease off the throttle and start turning a profit.
Perfectlogic
Member
So you think having a graph over the past 4 months with catalysts written on it makes you an expert, or what is your point? I mean everyone investing in Tesla should know all that. Information doesn't give you an edge (unless it's insider), logic does.
I will be gone for the next 5 hours or so, I know demand for my perfect logic is high but there will have to be a waiting list.
It's the weekend... I hope people lighten up, especially after a positive week.
I think we definitely do not want a bull echo chamber here, and demand issues actually are still a widely debated and open topic outside of this forum.
I'll take the other side... originally, I thought using the wait times would be useful like you apparently do. However, after several quarters, it became very clear to me that it isn't a useful indicator at all. Combine that with anecdotal evidence on the ground and in this forum to help fill in some gaps, and it is clear that the website wait times are not a metric to base any investment thesis upon. Certainly, not reliable enough to know when it might work and when it might not, much like VIN counting is no longer useable. It can be part of a larger picture, but very dangerous on its own.
There is a nuance to this... Tesla does no advertising. But they do perform demand generation activities and they do, essentially, guerrilla marketing, leveraging really cheap social media very effectively. Their demand level is not infinite... but the issue for a company in the stage that Tesla is in is very different than other products for other, more established companies. For Tesla, a lot of their new customers have never considered a BEV before. Many did not even know that Tesla exists, and when they did, their first reaction is often, what is this?? Really, this is a thing? If you have ever been in the forefront of something very new and have to explain the existence of it, why you might want it, why you should have it, and so forth, that's a very different demand generation than picking between known, well established products, choosing between brand/product a, b, c, etc. I've had countless discussions about BEVs, introducing them for the first time, at least in a very real, how-would-I-own-this-product kind of way.
Tesla's need to continue to do perform demand generation activities does not mean they are demand limited. They are still production limited, but they have to make sure that they stay production limited. Their demand generation activities include things like building out the Supercharger network. Each Supercharger that is built or even on the drawing boards increases the number of people that could decide that a Tesla BEV works for them. Tesla is at a very different stage of growth in a very new environment with still a lot of greenfield to conquer.
I think we definitely do not want a bull echo chamber here, and demand issues actually are still a widely debated and open topic outside of this forum.
I'll take the other side... originally, I thought using the wait times would be useful like you apparently do. However, after several quarters, it became very clear to me that it isn't a useful indicator at all. Combine that with anecdotal evidence on the ground and in this forum to help fill in some gaps, and it is clear that the website wait times are not a metric to base any investment thesis upon. Certainly, not reliable enough to know when it might work and when it might not, much like VIN counting is no longer useable. It can be part of a larger picture, but very dangerous on its own.
There is a nuance to this... Tesla does no advertising. But they do perform demand generation activities and they do, essentially, guerrilla marketing, leveraging really cheap social media very effectively. Their demand level is not infinite... but the issue for a company in the stage that Tesla is in is very different than other products for other, more established companies. For Tesla, a lot of their new customers have never considered a BEV before. Many did not even know that Tesla exists, and when they did, their first reaction is often, what is this?? Really, this is a thing? If you have ever been in the forefront of something very new and have to explain the existence of it, why you might want it, why you should have it, and so forth, that's a very different demand generation than picking between known, well established products, choosing between brand/product a, b, c, etc. I've had countless discussions about BEVs, introducing them for the first time, at least in a very real, how-would-I-own-this-product kind of way.
Tesla's need to continue to do perform demand generation activities does not mean they are demand limited. They are still production limited, but they have to make sure that they stay production limited. Their demand generation activities include things like building out the Supercharger network. Each Supercharger that is built or even on the drawing boards increases the number of people that could decide that a Tesla BEV works for them. Tesla is at a very different stage of growth in a very new environment with still a lot of greenfield to conquer.
That would be Publicly Documented and Date-Stamped IN ADVANCE Calls of TSLA's stock movements for the whole year to date - and counting. If you can not figure out how to get an edge from knowing the TSLA stock price will be IN ADVANCE. Then I guess you signed up for the wrong sport freshman. Maybe you should try the Underwater Shorting team?
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Ken.......Too many people in that video to be 'AlMc's beach'. But you, Johan, and a number of others here are welcome.......as long as the conversation does not include the word 'demand'
Good comment. To put it to a simple analogy: Discussing Tesla profitability and demand at this juncture is like discussing a large hotel construction project mid construction. This when you know all of the rooms in the main block are pre-booked awaiting completion and all of the expensive beach-front chalets are occupied with a waiting list for more of those too. These contribute some cash and numerous other benefits to the main construction including rave customer reviews.
Unless there is ever a good reason to imagine the construction of the main wing is way over budget or way behind shedule this is essentially an excellent opportunity to short the shorters that seem to have this construction project confused with the economics of an ageing condo.
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
My name is Johan, and I approve this message. Every word of it, strangely enough considering who the author is.
Apparently a bear debating another bear can set one of the bears straight. Interesting and fascinating phenomenon.
It just goes to show how difficult it is to disagree with a Tesla permabear without being right.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Right, and we now have a specific thread dedicated to that topic, so that unless something regarding it actually changes in some way that it might actually affect short term price movements it can be discussed there. This is in no way to create a "bull echo chamber" but to clear this thread of less meaningful chatter.
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