Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[sub]

Ignore list updated, +2.

I agree that a charging network won't keep people from buying an EV, but it will lower significantly the number of people willing to buy that brand/model. I currently have the i3, love driving electric locally and want to do it full time but I can't until I get my model 3's. I would never buy an EV with no charging network and/or low range like the i3 (not to mention it's goofy looks), I leased it to fill the gap until I have Tesla's sitting in the garage.

 

[Intl Professor]

snip

I expect the Model 3 to be superior to the Bolt, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the better choice. Expansion of the Service Center network is crucial to Tesla's long-term success, but I doubt that it will be greatly expanded by the time the Model 3 hits the streets.

This may be wishful thinking on my part, but by the time the Model 3 hits the streets there may be many traditional auto mechanics looking for another job. Of course they may have different skills, but....

 

[skljsd329832]

I wholeheartedly agree and have done the same for these two characters.

We need to take a view on this depending how TMC responds.

I am very glad to share Tesla business / TSLA stock insights here which may help people to make money and not lose money. Nobody can say if the next call will be as good as the last but so far so good.

This however needs to be conditional on TMC maintaining a safe place to talk sense and to get some value in return out of interacting with smart people - without coming under a hail of sneering personal attacks from a pair of morons (or pair of sock puppets if that is the case).

I don't need to beat around the bush. TMC has served its intended purpose as a public records office, we have a proven forecasting track record that is inherently valuable and from now on TMC is just an optional use of my time which I don't have to tolerate being wasted in this manner. Certainly don't have to tolerate being insulted. As you can see this/these individual/s are willing to throw dishonest low blows under the cover of a block - it's too much.

So it's them or us. Please let TMC know your decision and we will abide by the outcome with no hard feelings either way.

 

[Johan]

Yeah that $400 price target for July was on point! Oh sorry, forgot that you changed it after 3 months when the stock was down 10%, guess you were right all along.



I think the word you are looking for is "safe space".

I don't think you have the kind of track record or rapport here on TMC to be this snarky. You've stated your position and beliefs rather clearly now. Now it's time for you to lean back and let the discussion evolve in new directions, or post if you have new bits or pieces of information or observations that warrant discussion. Then, assuming you're as correct as you seem to be certain of, come back toward the end of 2016 to gloat and brag about being right if evidence has built pointing to falling demand.

 

[EinSV]

We need to take a view on this depending how TMC responds.

I am very glad to share Tesla business / TSLA stock insights here which may help people to make money and not lose money. Nobody can say if the next call will be as good as the last but so far so good.

This however needs to be conditional on TMC maintaining a safe place to talk sense and to get some value in return out of interacting with smart people - without coming under a hail of sneering personal attacks from a pair of morons (or pair of sock puppets if that is the case).

I don't need to beat around the bush. TMC has served its intended purpose as a public records office, we have a proven forecasting track record that is inherently valuable and from now on TMC is just an optional use of my time which I don't have to tolerate being wasted in this manner. Certainly don't have to tolerate being insulted. As you can see this/these individual/s are willing to throw dishonest low blows under the cover of a block - it's too much.

So it's them or us. Please let TMC know your decision and we will abide by the outcome with no hard feelings either way.

I believe (hope) that TMC understands that contributors to the TMC investment forums choose to post here rather than elsewhere because of the very high level of knowledge, information and discourse on these forums. It should be obvious that those who prefer the food fight atmosphere imperfect logic and james are trying to create here would be spending their time at seekingalpha, yahoo, etc. instead of on TMC.

I expect the reason these shenanigans have not been shut down already has to do with Mod vacation schedules or something along those lines.

 

[Gerardf]

Btw I don't think i'm nearly as disliked here as you think, it's pretty much the same 5 guys who dislikes all my posts with a few more from the outspoken bull mafia making their hurt feeling known in the thread. I think there is a silent majority who actually appreciates some fresh blood and a discussi.

Uhm, no. There is no silent majority that appreciates your posts. The majority is keeping silent in the hope you take the period off from posting as you promissed. Personally I have been silent in the hope you would stop posting and derailing this thread possibly even scaring away some valuable posters. I am wiling to bet that THAT is the opinion of the silent majority.

You stated you are not here to annoy others, however to my opinion your style of communiction and disrespect for other posters tell a very different story.

I dare you to ask for likes to measure supporters of you keeping posting here instead of take your break.
And if less than some number (say 10) you will finally take the promissed time out. I personally would be surprised to see you get 5 likes.. Even 3 would surprise me actually.

Oh, and for you not being banned here.. It might have to do with that we have a very mild moderator in this thread (which is ok, i very much appriciate him).

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't need to beat around the bush. TMC has served its intended purpose as a public records office

Very nice of you to acknowledge all their hard work. It's all about you, isn't it?

... we have a proven forecasting track record that is inherently valuable

It's noted that if you ignore all the times you were wrong, then you were completely right all the time. That's quite a record. And what's with this recent acquisition of the royal "we"?

... and from now on TMC is just an optional use of my time which I don't have to tolerate being wasted in this manner.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out. The reek of noblesse oblige is a bit hard to take.

 

[skljsd329832]

Just briefly on the subject of Bulls and Bears.

This is the Short Term Price Movements Thread.

The ultimate objective is to be bullish about the price going up from the bottom of a trough until just before it crests.

The ultimate objective is to be bearish about the price going down from the top of a crest to just before it troughs.

My private definition of a Long Term Tesla Bear is: A Total and Complete Retard and just as likely likely a Total Fraud - or to borrow an only slightly more elegant line from Elon: A douche bag and an idiot.

Yet this is the Short Term TSLA Price Movement Thread where anyone with a distinct need for the price to go only one direction forever will be be at a disadvantage almost regardless of preference.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

If you make a prediction that turn out to be wrong, then it was wrong. Everyone has 20/20 hindsight, predictions are about predicting the future, which he failed at.

No, that wasn't 20/20 hindsight, that was a change in circumstances. After his rant about Musk's decision to pursue an early ramp instead of profitability, TSLA continued to drop. There was no change of demand, new competition, or government intervention that we could foresee that caused the drop other than the earnings call. It was Musk's executive decision to change course and announce an unprecedented goal of accelerating production. Something that flew in the face of reason.

If both (Democrats and Republicans) US presidential candidates announced that they would require EV's for all federal agencies within their presidency, you don't think TSLA wouldn't skyrocket after that? Likewise, if they announced a new roadway tax on all EV's, TSLA stock would drop. Are either of these scenarios "predictable"? You can only make stock purchase decisions based on predictions of what current info means. When new info comes out, you have to account for it, even if it means changing course.

 

[skljsd329832]

Very nice of you to acknowledge all their hard work. It's all about you, isn't it?

It's noted that if you ignore all the times you were wrong, then you were completely right all the time. That's quite a record. And what's with this recent acquisition of the royal "we"?

Don't let the door hit you on the way out. The reek of noblesse oblige is a bit hard to take.

There have been no forecasting errors discounting missing the market wide effects of a terrorist attack by three days or unless you argue missing a crest by $10 and by 2-3 days for the whole year and was an error - despite trading every single call resulting in compounding gains for anyone that did so and anyone prone to disagree making losses to the same extent.

We refers to a team of researchers on the ground in 42 countries with unique insights into the EV arena combined with analysis and forecasting that appears to function as intended.

 

[Xpert]

Funny, I seem to remember listening to individual called Julian begging of this year, and regretting deeply that. I allowed his convictions to reinforce my own beliefs deep, deep into the hole. That cost me serious emotional drama, and peek to through loss of 87% (Dec 31st - Mar 9) on my whole portfolio.

And I'm good now, thank you very much, back to black. Luckily I had enough emotional stamina to survive and play right moves. But, never, ever again...

Anyhow, It's just... My memories reconcile soooo poorly with this narrative of Julian's omnipotence, and yeah, I know. I was there, every minute, of, every day...

Similar situation for me around 74% down now in the black. Difference is I don't blame others for my loss, I knew I was taking a huge risk on a trade that went horribly wrong. We both should have had better short term risk control.

Noone can be 100% right. Julian was not the only one bullish before the crash, but to his credit, he was the only one willing to eat his socks in public if TSLA didn't reach $250 from under $150 by May.

 

[skljsd329832]

No, that wasn't 20/20 hindsight, that was a change in circumstances. After his rant about Musk's decision to pursue an early ramp instead of profitability, TSLA continued to drop. There was no change of demand, new competition, or government intervention that we could foresee that caused the drop other than the earnings call. It was Musk's executive decision to change course and announce an unprecedented goal of accelerating production. Something that flew in the face of reason.

If both (Democrats and Republicans) US presidential candidates announced that they would require EV's for all federal agencies within their presidency, you don't think TSLA wouldn't skyrocket after that? Likewise, if they announced a new roadway tax on all EV's, TSLA stock would drop. Are either of these scenarios "predictable"? You can only make stock purchase decisions based on predictions of what current info means. When new info comes out, you have to account for it, even if it means changing course.

Should probably point out that the call going in to Q1 ER was negative (and therefore correct) regardless and independent of the need to revise the basis of the 2H forecast in the light of the radically revised 2H cash flow guidance and early disclosures provided by Tesla management.

There was no hindsight change. Even the content of the disclosures including the big one (doubling of the 2020 production target from 500K to 1M units) -was in fact forecast well in advance (i.e. well in advance of the M3 unveil too). The only change from expectations was at management's discretion concerning the timing of the disclosures and this timing was immaterial to the prevailing call. If anything it reinforced the call of Q1 being "a sluice gate for excuses for a clean run at a clean Q2 ER".

 

[BriansTesla]

I think the market for EVs will (in the short term) be different than some people expect. I believe suburban families with two cars, one of which never travels more than 200 miles/day, will account for the majority of sales.

If that's true, refueling away from home won't be those buyers' major concern. They'll be more interested in knowing that a support network for their car is nearby in the event it's needed.

That's my situation. My EV will never be charged away from home, but a Chevy dealer can be found in almost every community. Three are short drives from my home and, when I'm on the road, one will be not far away. My nearest Tesla Service Centers are very long trips, even here in Tesla-friendly Southern CA.

I expect the Model 3 to be superior to the Bolt, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the better choice. Expansion of the Service Center network is crucial to Tesla's long-term success, but I doubt that it will be greatly expanded by the time the Model 3 hits the streets.

I disagree. What actually happens for any new EV owner is that they realize what great cars they are and want to drive them more often and further. Some go to a lot of trouble to take them on trips and the ICE stays at home more and more. They just are better cars.

 

[DaveT]

Wow, this thread has become completely unreadable today. #sigh

 

[skljsd329832]

Similar situation for me around 74% down now in the black. Difference is I don't blame others for my loss, I knew I was taking a huge risk on a trade that went horribly wrong. We both should have had better short term risk control.

Noone can be 100% right. Julian was not the only one bullish before the crash, but to his credit, he was the only one willing to eat his socks in public if TSLA didn't reach $250 from under $150 by May.

Here is the actual call history:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

I put in a number of entries explaining "bullish" long term outcomes and seeking to advise holders to hold and against taking real instead of temporary paper losses on the Jan Feb down leg but there was no doubt that things would head south until Mid Feb on China Oil and FED FUD combined with TSLA FUD on Model X and Shorters' mistaken linear cash flow projections off of Q3.

The short term (and correct) bullish call of the $200 buy to $205 resume sell during the down leg was largely obscured and drowned out by attack posting but it is there alright.

Any remaining vagueness can only be attributable to the fact that as a general self imposed rule anything written for free on a public investment forum must not be worded as unsolicited investment advice even if occasionally it would be nice to be free to say "buy now or sell now goddamit" - hence the word to the wise format and the socks etc.

 

[skljsd329832]

Wow, this thread has become completely unreadable today. #sigh

Hopefully some good can come of it with a bit of a Troll clear-out and a resumption of sanity for the weeks and Months ahead.

Right now we're looking at an open-ended bull call with key events coming up - namely Shareholders meeting and presumptive GF unveil.

This open ended call is going to need some careful refining. Can't really do that on TMC with TMC under siege from trolls.

 

[mejojo]

What actually happens for any new EV owner is that they realize what great cars they are and want to drive them more often and further. Some go to a lot of trouble to take them on trips and the ICE stays at home more and more. They just are better cars.

This!!! With my Volt, I would not take long trips in it, even though I could.....after the first gallon+, there was no more eSavings.

With my Model S I have racked up 30,000 miles in one year (normal mileage was 18,000) because we take it everywhere because it is a far superior ride, is far safer, and far less expensive.

 

[FANGO]

Is it really that hard to post here without calling anyone a "retard" or "moron"? Can we get some bans please? Does this board have mods anymore?

 

[Renaud]

25, typical Y generation arrogance...

 

[Causalien]

All these trolling. My fingers are a itching.

Mods, may i be relased from your shackles so I can roll with my fellow trolls?

And it rhymes!!!!!!