Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[sundaymorning]

That's the kind of response that we might have expected. It failed to impress. Meanwhile, if as earlier claimed you are not short Tesla Motors shares, who is it that you expect to reward you for spending so much time and effort spreading FUD?

This is why bears lose credibility. They send their most diehard anti Tesla Fudsters from yahoo, to blog it out. Instead of providing solid data, they harp on demand demand demand. 25k, 50k, 80k 500,000k there's always a demand issue with them. Even if Tesla reaches 10 million vehicles a year demand will still look soft bc apparently, they have some kind of inside info, a friend of a friend told them at a bar that Tesla won't meet their goals..and although this bloggster is 25 years old, spends the entire day here blogging out their frustrations, they're apparently also a CEO of an unknown & unnamed company with better credibility than Elon Musk. C'mon kid, get a job like the most of us and do something useful with your time. Who are you trying to fool?

It's tragic to see rookies try their best to show off martial arts in front of a forum of Kung Fu masters. You're stepping into the Shaolin Temple kid, give it a break, go impress grade school children with your high kicks, every veteran here can destroy your conspiracy theories with their pinky.

 

[Perfectlogic]

This guy is one of the permabulls who would encourage buying TSLA at any price any time for the long term sake. Most recently quote I found from Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

11 likes on a post saying the current price is a great buying opportunity? Who would have thought.

 

[JamesTSLA]

11 likes on a post saying the current price is a great buying opportunity? Who would have thought.

Among those 11, maybe you can find some familar IDs constantly give "dislike" to you So no wonder they are harsh on your insightful posts. LoL

 

[Bgarret]

Wow, this thread has become completely unreadable today. #sigh

Not if you've blocked some of the more ridiculous posters....then it's more of an existentialist Haiku. Words are written about something that you just can't see, but you can likely glimpse the outlines. One side of a conversation Is visible, and you can only wish the people shouting into the darkness would realize the futility of their efforts in debating bigots that can't get past their prejudices. Like trying to convince the KKK of the advantages of multiethnic culture.

Better to let the bigots continue to shout at the top of their lungs, thereby removing all doubt of the weakness of their arguments, grab a beverage and settle in for a little Game of Thrones.

At least that's what I'm going to do. What are you going to do James???? Oh, wait, couldn't hear...one hand clapping.

 

[Causalien]

Kudos again where kudos due for the April $255 top call.

What I can see looking out from May 19th is a run-up, so far without obvious limiting extent, very likely through the May 31st Shareholders meeting, Gigafactory Unveil Q2 ER and beyond.

Looks like an inverted bottomless pit and equally unnerving not to have a null hypothesis to go with it.

Do you see any kind of technical extent of a likely run-up at this juncture or any obvious challenges to the above synopsis?

Gigafactory and Shareholders meetings are not run up events. Earnings and surprise announcements from developments are. So the only catalyst I see in the future is around July when Q2ER should happen. Which leaves us about 2 months to run up to $250 if there's that momentum and 3 more months to enjoy the distribution phase before the catalysts loses its steam.

I haven't looked at Technicals for the run up yet. Just being distracted by the other more important market right now. I can only say it's not in a bottomless run up mode.

 

[mmd]

Naturally infrastructure will require investment in the form of CapEx but it is worth noting that it will not be directly proportional.

For example expanding a service center is not the same cost as establishing one.

Dealing with an easy to build car is likely to result in easy maintenance also.

Dealing with a simpler vehicle is likely to result in higher reliability.

Charging a smaller battery with chemistry likely more optimized for fast charging will enable a Supercharger to serve more cars per day per charging bay.

Thank you for at least attempting to answer the question Not all service centers have room to grow at the same location. I don't buy your reasoning that the expansion won't need to be proportional.

"Dealing with an easy to build car is likely to result in easy maintenance also." : I'm comparing with 120K Model S, not the new Model X cars. Model S has been claimed to be no maintenance and easy to build also. Your argument doesn't hold.

"Dealing with a simpler vehicle is likely to result in higher reliability." : Same as above. I'm comparing with Model S. It could be much worse due to accelerated production plan for Model 3.

Charging : There is no indication that the Model 3 battery will charge faster. More likely, it will charge slower as the battery is smaller. When Tesla releases the Model 3 charging specs, we can revisit this.

The expansion of service centers and super chargers must happen before Tesla can unleash 500K Model 3 on the road, and so this requires investment first, even before ramping up Model 3 production. If not, it will leave the M3 buyers stranded. Another capital raise should solve that issue.

 

[skljsd329832]

Gigafactory and Shareholders meetings are not run up events. Earnings and surprise announcements from developments are. So the only catalyst I see in the future is around July when Q2ER should happen. Which leaves us about 2 months to run up to $250 if there's that momentum and 3 more months to enjoy the distribution phase before the catalysts loses its steam.

I haven't looked at Technicals for the run up yet. Just being distracted by the other more important market right now. I can only say it's not in a bottomless run up mode.

Would be curious when you do.

FYI I see possibilities in the Shareholders meeting as valuable M3 and MX status report and the recent raise unlocking ability to add to positive guidance. This I see this as not so much as a surprise to the Longs but the opportunity to directly refute core naysayer arguments and I think it good timing to use the event for that purpose. It is also in the nature of Wheeler who is more on-point and aggressive in this regard than his predecessor.

The GF unveil I see as a media event and an opportunity to put Tesla Energy on the map as an actual thing rather than something practically missing from TSLA valuations and projections market wide.

Q2 - on the same page there.

 

[Papafox]

Regarding the influence of an annual meeting on share prices...
Normally I'd agree there's no real bump in share prices from an annual meeting, but we could see something out of the ordinary this year. Tesla has information to let out of the bag at some point (X production is finally humming along at a good clip now with a huge reduction in quality issues) and they have incentive for letting the cat out of the bag (giving their recent share-offering buyers an instant reward for believing in Tesla). Now, if only someone would be so kind as to ask the right question at the annual meeting.

 

[FredTMC]

Any take on the Capex needed for that? So far Tesla has sold 120K cars. If it sells 400K Model 3 in 2017-2018, would it need to spend 5 times as much as it has spent so far on super chargers and service centers?

I don't have current numbers on avg CapEx required per Service Center. We DO know that Supercharger locations run about $150k per location.

My guess is the "CapEx" per service center is LESS than most people think

- Consider that the building itself is leased. So that goes in a different bucket.

- building renovations are CapEx

- service center Wages aren't CapEx.

- equipment (lifts and tooling are CapEx I believe)

Maybe, someone recalls what the cost breakdowns are per service centers. I don't. Finally, service centers aren't all that numerous compared to superchargers.

 

[skljsd329832]

Thank you for at least attempting to answer the question Not all service centers have room to grow at the same location. I don't buy your reasoning that the expansion won't need to be proportional.

"Dealing with an easy to build car is likely to result in easy maintenance also." : I'm comparing with 120K Model S, not the new Model X cars. Model S has been claimed to be no maintenance and easy to build also. Your argument doesn't hold.

"Dealing with a simpler vehicle is likely to result in higher reliability." : Same as above. I'm comparing with Model S. It could be much worse due to accelerated production plan for Model 3.

Charging : There is no indication that the Model 3 battery will charge faster. More likely, it will charge slower as the battery is smaller. When Tesla releases the Model 3 charging specs, we can revisit this.

The expansion of service centers and super chargers must happen before Tesla can unleash 500K Model 3 on the road, and so this requires investment first, even before ramping up Model 3 production. If not, it will leave the M3 buyers stranded. Another capital raise should solve that issue.

FYI none of your attempted rebuttals add up to any sense at all. Just negative hand waving and error.

500K cars are not suddenly shipped in a single block (obviously). The roll out plan is regional from US West to East coast and then international. Nothing to hamper an incremental infrastructure roll out plan to go with it. As for reliability of the Model 3, if there is any teething issue with it, you'll never have the opportunity to find out in order to worry anyone about it. First cars go to employees by the thousands. Public roll out will be post internal roll out - most likely the entire lot of them under NDA - as well as a natural incentive to get their own work right first time and fix it quietly and expeditiously if it isn't.

 

[skljsd329832]

Regarding the influence of an annual meeting on share prices...
Normally I'd agree there's no real bump in share prices from an annual meeting, but we could see something out of the ordinary this year. Tesla has information to let out of the bag at some point (X production is finally humming along at a good clip now with a huge reduction in quality issues) and they have incentive for letting the cat out of the bag (giving their recent share-offering buyers an instant reward for believing in Tesla). Now, if only someone would be so kind as to ask the right question at the annual meeting.

Agreed.

 

[Xpert]

More like people enjoy the bullish echo here, they feel good when they come and read about the riches waiting for them. People like to think about making money, and the more they are able to convince themselves it will happen the better it feels. That's why people react so harshly when someone comes in and tells them it won't happen, people want to believe. Do you know what the slogan is for the danish state lottery? "Imagine if you won".

It wasn't even like all I did was repeat myself. My relatively short back and forth with Fallenone about the GM and overhead cost was probably more real analysis than there normally is in an entire week in this thread. People just don't want to hear it because it isn't bullish. You are fooling yourself if you think the shallow chatter that normally fills up 95% of this thread is any help if you want to beat the market.

If you are curious: $220k all from less than $1k, earned from online poker and investing. Don't feel the need to put it in my profile though, I will let my arguments speak for themselves.

I am sure your arguments speak volumes about you and your poker/investing skills as obviously most people here found them useless.
$1k to $220 is as impressive as all of your arguments here - all empty without facts to back them up. This is exactly why you get mostly thumb downs and ban requests.There are plenty people here who are much smarter, wiser than you and I, who are open to logical TSLA discussions, long or short, and most do not wish to see your posts. Is there something you still dont get?

 

[skljsd329832]

BTW

The importance of building the first few thousands or tens of thousands of Model 3 vehicles for fellow employees and fellows at SpaceX cannot be overstated. Not just for the closed loop to get it nailed down properly before general release.

It is one thing to build a product that can go a bit Friday afternoon and then some nebulous nameless customer somewhere has to call customer services and so on. It is quite another to build a car that may well be your own car, or for your mates on the production line or the head of design, engineering, HR, production, marketing legal etc etc. who can just show up on the line and ask what the heck are you trying to pull if something isn't perfect or worse still walk directly up to Elon at SpaceX and ask him the same question.

 

[TNEVol]

If you are curious: $220k all from less than $1k, earned from online poker and investing. Don't feel the need to put it in my profile though, I will let my arguments speak for themselves.

I'm sorry son that you have'nt yet determined what success truly is. At your age I was challenging the status quo and winning. Not a lot of money from that but looking back a lot of satisfaction.

 

[sundaymorning]

Airlogic insinuates "im a poker player, therefore I'm great." $220,000 at the poker table? I can beat that kind of "air talk," I won $2,000,000 at the black jack table. And oh I refuse to post my winnings here bc I have better things to do... Also, I bought 100,000 calls the last week when tesla was at $205. Your all air son, all air. Gotta love them bears. From recollection, I remember certain bears calling for Julian's head because they thought he was getting away with certain things on this forum, now the bears are all hiding behind this "airiness". Look bears, if you want respect here, earn it the right way, back it up. Don't spill any air, just back it. By the way, I'm a CEO also, but no I won't post any of my credentials here. smh. Bears..

 

[Causalien]

Regarding the influence of an annual meeting on share prices...
Normally I'd agree there's no real bump in share prices from an annual meeting, but we could see something out of the ordinary this year. Tesla has information to let out of the bag at some point (X production is finally humming along at a good clip now with a huge reduction in quality issues) and they have incentive for letting the cat out of the bag (giving their recent share-offering buyers an instant reward for believing in Tesla). Now, if only someone would be so kind as to ask the right question at the annual meeting.

Maybe I am just seeing too far ahead and already know this. I forget that the average person doesn't follow TSLA news and might get excited. But I kind of remember previous instances where we work up a frenzy about the meeting and a few attended. They seem to coincide with a peak.

But my reasoning has more to do with interest rate environment. Most of my free cash will go towards investments that will rise if interest rate rise and do it at a multiple while providing monthly income. Actually, most of my non TSLA portfolio is geared towards this scenario or are indifferent to rates. I can't wait for rate to go back to normality.

So I haven't figured out whether or not TSLA will thrive in a rising rate environment, hence my short term muted interest until Model 3 rolls off the line. What this revealed to me is that I do not think things happening at TSLA will be able to do much against the coming Macro moves until Model 3 and I am subconsciously maneuvering against the coming change in Macro. What Elon has done very well, is taking advantage of the current Macro environment to get as much debt as he can at near 0 interest rate and then have the safety raise before the next President and ensured that TSLA will not die. I don't know who is advising Elon on the financial side, but very well played. Can't say the same for the rest of the SIlicon Valley.

We are very close to a shift in Macro... at least in my part of the world. This I concluded after going undercover and interviewing many people for the past year to get the information I need. I am in the process of finishing up in this industry that I've been involved in for the past 3 years and moving on to the next industry. Most of you are from USA, so I don't know what to say to you since you have different moving pieces.

But to better answer the question. I do not think the event mentioned in TSLA will eclipse that of the Macro even that will happen in my part of the world, hence my money is going where I can get the most potential return for the risk I take.

Wow, that's a lot longer than I intended. Usually I only type out the final paragraph and don't mention the thought process. But it's a long weekend and I am still in the process of moving my blog.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Charging : There is no indication that the Model 3 battery will charge faster. More likely, it will charge slower as the battery is smaller. When Tesla releases the Model 3 charging specs, we can revisit this.

The increase in charging speed does not necessarily have to be associated with the bigger battery. From the Q1 2016 shareholders letter:

"We introduced the Model S refresh in April, with the largest single set of hardware changes (nearly 300 part changes in total) on Model S to date. Updates include an enhanced look for the front of the car, adaptive headlights, faster charging and more range, all for a minimal price increase."

 

[Ameliorate]

Airlogic insinuates "im a poker player, therefore I'm great." $220,000 at the poker table? I can beat that kind of "air talk," I won $2,000,000 at the black jack table. And oh I refuse to post my winnings here bc I have better things to do... Also, I bought 100,000 calls the last week when tesla was at $205. Your all air son, all air. Gotta love them bears. From recollection, I remember certain bears calling for Julian's head because they thought he was getting away with certain things on this forum, now the bears are all hiding behind this "airiness". Look bears, if you want respect here, earn it the right way, back it up. Don't spill any air, just back it. By the way, I'm a CEO also, but no I won't post any of my credentials here. smh. Bears..

Unfortunately, I missed the bottom (which is almost a crime considering the answer was buried somewhere in this thread) but it would be very helpful to myself at least, if anyone is willing to share which calls they find attractive. I'm expecting a good Q2 and a run up to it, just debating between shorter positions until I can buy August calls, or just go for the Sept and pay a little more for over an extra months worth of time that I'm not certain I'll want. Maybe you've got LEAPS(Would make more sense if one had a larger amount of funds to play with, tripling my investment will not change my quality of life, so I've mostly been playing the riskier shorter term)
Just curious, I'm fully accountable for any trades I make.

 

[FANGO]

If you are so proud of your accomplishments that you feel they may enhance your credibility, then please enumerate them in the information section of your profile.

As I mentioned before, ad hominems are not a rigorous argumentation method. That said, you make a fair point here, because you are calling out perfectlogic's ad hominem. This is the Internet, what you claim to accomplish, perfectlogic, is irrelevant. Besides, myself, as the president of every country on earth and the world's only omniscient super-billionaire (that's a billion billion, btw), I'm clearly the most qualified person in the universe to answer all questions on all topics.

PS where are the mods?

 

[Gerardf]

If you are curious: $220k all from less than $1k, earned from online poker and investing. Don't feel the need to put it in my profile though, I will let my arguments speak for themselves.

Ok, so you claim to have earned money from poker and investing.

Are you aware this is an investment forum, not a poker forum, that you are on ?
I am not fooled by your bluff. Are you annoying us here with it because you hold a loosing hand ?

Disclosure: I know nothing about poker. And considering the content of your posts you know nothing about investing.

You are not an investor but a gambler. Your arguments did indeed speak for you.