Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Krugerrand]

Are *you* incharge of anything at Tesla to help us keep calm?

Leave aside the pissing contest, stick to the point!

No need to be an a-hole.

When did I mention being scared of all the random gibberish you are ascribing me to??

Demand an apology here!

I wasn't actually talking about you specifically, so no need to hyperventilate. Next time feel free to ask for clarification if you aren't sure or if I've failed to be clear.

The bear argument was to be scared of those things I mentioned and now the bear argument is to be scared of the what you mentioned. The contradiction is ridiculous.

I'll assume you've just had a bad day.

 

[geneclean55]

With all due respect it was obvious it was going to happen over a year ago, even said so here in January. I suspect in all honesty it was obvious to Musk many years ago. All that has actually happened is that the projections JB Straubel was putting out in 2013 remain on target.

The only really weird exception to rational expectations was talking about only 500K units in 2020.

I strongly expect (as I always have, frequently and publicly) that this 500K figure was fielded when seeking $2.3 billion in bond funding ostensibly for the Gigafactory - at which time picking a figure higher than the accepted upper limit of the capacity of NUMMI would have set off alarm bells about the need for another vehicle factory and strained general credulity that would have harmed that fundraiser.

There was always going to be the kind of production ramp that is now happening. For once (at least since 2013) Tesla is actually ahead of the expectations it has set.

Right, i remember reading comments to that effect on this thread prior to the reveal. I am just surprised that some posters are perturbed by the accelerated ramp. TSLA value is currently based on potential and perceived momentum to reach that potential. This would be an example of momentum.

 

[SBenson]

But enough about us.

Everything else - whatever

This bit - agreed. Moving on..

 

[techmaven]

Two notes on the paint shop:

Dürr:
Dürr receives largest robot order from Tesla | Spray Finishing News

Eisenmann:
http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/133998/docs/2015_03_31_Tesla_Motors_en_final_US.pdf?t=1461349609277

A good portion of Mr. Funk's SA article was on the paint shop, and according to the both Durr and Eisenmann, it is capable of 500,000 vehicles.

Mr. Funk also summarily dismissed Tesla's purchase of a tool and die shop out of MI.

The costs of these improvements are only partially reflected in the current products... clearly Tesla has been making strategic investments (spending cash) gearing up for Model 3 for quite some time. That's why the cash burn cannot be directly applied to just S or S+X.

 

[CButterK]

As regards to the Model 3 program execution risk. With money as a bottleneck taken off the table for now (and by implication probably off the table in future too) . One thing that is worth keeping in mind is that the Model 3 program has been a Tesla program for well over a decade at this juncture while essentially waiting and working for affordable and competent battery technology to come up to meet it at scale. This program is not new and nothing like the rushed job that it appears to be. For example the Model 3 prototypes shown on the 31st March were confirmed (first hand by a Tesla Engineering VP on video) to be running the production drive train.

Model 3 is more than likely the longest contemplated, best thought out and planned vehicle launch for many a decade if not of all time.

This...

I believe Tesla would have introduced the Model 3 1st, if they could've pulled it off from a cashflow perspective. When you connect the dots with info out of Tesla over the years, it points to a theory that Model 3 has been actively moving forward in parallel with Model S/X with some remaining puzzle pieces(cost) to be developed to fit into the Model 3 Program.

Here is an example: Seems Model 3 design was already in place 6 years ago, almost 3 years before S even started shipping...

Was Tesla Model 3 Design Actually Revealed Back In 2010 By Tesla? (w/video)[/QUOTE]

 

[skljsd329832]

Can you please clarify if you are forecasting up from here to Q2 ER or up from here to May 31st only? Do you think this is the best buying opportunity between now and August? What's your updated price target for July/August?

Thanks

At present this looks like the best buying opportunity for the months ahead and it looks like the first $30 up from here is safe and most likely more. Hesitant to say more because at this juncture the outlook appears too good to be true.

Why: All green lights. Present business, future business. All substantive bear arguments have fallen flat. Nothing but nebulous hand-waving supporting circa 30 million shares held short. No liquidity concerns have merit. No competitive concerns have merit (in real life traditional competitors are panicked without any idea how to forecast the future let alone how to act on it). Real competitors (well funded new market entrants such as Apple) are years behind the curve and these will shatter the thesis of TSLA bears all the more, which is to say that the traditional auto industry will inevitably crush Tesla's prospects, not that the Traditional auto industry is actually in considerably greater trouble than they had ever thought possible. BTW this is the real impact of Apple unveiling a competitor - to the Internal Combustion Engine.

Huge caveat: This is an opinion. Not investment advice. While it is true to say that stating forecasts for this stock has gotten bolder and less couched in caveats as the year has progressed: I can state with absolute clarity that from Q4 ER in mid February to the present day there can be categorically no room for reasonable doubt that previous calls from that point forward to the present day have been stated with sufficient clarity to leave no room for reasonable doubt that each has been unremittingly and unwaveringly correct through numerous key events totalling more than $170 of cumulative price action (both up and down) forecast correctly in advance since mid February without any countervailing errors. Nevertheless just like anyone reading this we have no possible way of knowing if future prediction performance will match past performance. Argument from authority (mine / ours) is categorically disavowed. If it makes sense to you do it, if not don't.

 

[SmartElectric]

Here is an example: Seems Model 3 design was already in place 6 years ago, almost 3 years before S even started shipping...

I love Tesla as much as the next guy, but comparing the outline of a car frame to the end-end system design as complex as an EV is not a good way to make your point...there's lots more to design than the shell. Peace. Just sayin'

 

[skljsd329832]

I love Tesla as much as the next guy, but comparing the outline of a car frame to the end-end system design as complex as an EV is not a good way to make your point...there's lots more to design than the shell. Peace. Just sayin'

Tesla's patent records have been hinting at Model 3 development for years and years.

 

[DaveT]

I can state with absolute clarity that from Q4 ER in mid February to the present day there can be categorically no room for reasonable doubt that previous calls from that point forward to the present day have been stated with sufficient clarity to leave no room for reasonable doubt that each has been unremittingly and unwaveringly correct through numerous key events totalling more than $170 of cumulative price action (both up and down) forecast correctly in advance since mid February without any countervailing errors. Nevertheless just like anyone reading this we have no possible way of knowing if future prediction performance will match past performance. Argument from authority (mine / ours) is categorically disavowed. If it makes sense to you do it, if not don't.

So are you saying post-Q4 (from mid-February) your calls have been perfect but pre-Q4 they weren't?

 

[steve3]

I believe Tesla would have introduced the Model 3 1st, if they could've pulled it off from a cashflow perspective.

Undoubtedly the oak tree is in the acorn...Model 3 has been the object of focus since inception. But during roadster production, when Elon would talk about the vision, he said it takes three iterations of a new technology for it to be sufficiently evolved for mass adoption. It was always Generation 3 before Model 3. That said, I agree with the view that Model 3 preparations have been integral to every decision leading to the present & into M3 launch.

 

[CButterK]

I love Tesla as much as the next guy, but comparing the outline of a car frame to the end-end system design as complex as an EV is not a good way to make your point...there's lots more to design than the shell. Peace. Just sayin'

Sure... You are right. I'm sure the Model 3 development team just sat there watching the clay model dry up & rot in a corner for the last 6 years, while working on Model S/X and not leveraging anything they learned from it... Peace. Just sayin back'

 

[skljsd329832]

Two notes on the paint shop:

Dürr:
Dürr receives largest robot order from Tesla | Spray Finishing News

Eisenmann:
http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/133998/docs/2015_03_31_Tesla_Motors_en_final_US.pdf?t=1461349609277

A good portion of Mr. Funk's SA article was on the paint shop, and according to the both Durr and Eisenmann, it is capable of 500,000 vehicles.

Mr. Funk also summarily dismissed Tesla's purchase of a tool and die shop out of MI.

The costs of these improvements are only partially reflected in the current products... clearly Tesla has been making strategic investments (spending cash) gearing up for Model 3 for quite some time. That's why the cash burn cannot be directly applied to just S or S+X.

Great info.

From the Dür link:

"Capacity: 500,000 bodies per year
The car body paint shop has two sealing, two primer and two top coat lines. It is designed to paint as many as 500,000 bodies per year. The plastic parts paint shop delivers the necessary amount of bumpers to meet body production demands. Primer and base coat are waterborne in both paint shop areas, car body and plastic parts. The clear coat is a 2k solvent based paint. The paint shop, which Tesla ordered in 2014, will be ready by end of 2015."

This concurs with Tesla's Shareholder Letter for Q3 2015 that states that the new paint shop was finished and commissioned.

Between these documents there seems to be clarity that the full 500,000 annual unit paint shop capacity has been completed, completely obviating any requirement for Steve Funk's speculations on the topic. The question he raises has already been answered - and by direct deduction - there is no point building a 500K unit paint shop on a 200K unit assembly line so we can pretty much make a choice between

Tesla being fundamentally clueless about what they are doing at Fremont by 300,000 units of spare paint shop capacity for cars it needs to ship in from China or Europe to paint them and send them back again painted, or Steve Funk of Seeking Alpha is fundamentally clueless on the same topic.

The Eisenmann piece states that this was a "9 figure order". If that's nine figures in US $ it was a big job. If Euros - even bigger - and it was done and paid for in 2015. Interestingly enough - ordered in 2014.

 

[SmartElectric]

Sure... You are right. I'm sure the Model 3 development team just sat there watching the clay model dry up & rot in a corner for the last 6 years, while working on Model S/X and not leveraging anything they learned from it... Peace. Just sayin back'

Missed my point entirely.

Pointing out that the shell outline was similar years ago and that Tesla would reuse and improve technologies across their product line does not adequately detail the case you are trying to make...

 

[skljsd329832]

So are you saying post-Q4 (from mid-February) your calls have been perfect but pre-Q4 they weren't?

I am saying that since actually quite some way before Q4 '15 ER even those seeking to feign confusion with malice a forethought have been left zero room for manoeuvre. From Q4 '15 ER onwards - forget about it.

Jan 28 - bear attack inbound guard against realizing losses. What do you think - sound like a bullish call to you? Maybe it does to some, definitely suggested not selling if you happened to be holding stock on the basis it would go up again after ER. Since Q4 '15 ER ER - no. Just buy it or sell it as appropriate in as tight a language as possible without directly offering unsolicited investment advice.

 

[larmor]

Two notes on the paint shop:

Dürr:
Dürr receives largest robot order from Tesla | Spray Finishing News

Eisenmann:
http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/133998/docs/2015_03_31_Tesla_Motors_en_final_US.pdf?t=1461349609277

A good portion of Mr. Funk's SA article was on the paint shop, and according to the both Durr and Eisenmann, it is capable of 500,000 vehicles.

Mr. Funk also summarily dismissed Tesla's purchase of a tool and die shop out of MI.

The costs of these improvements are only partially reflected in the current products... clearly Tesla has been making strategic investments (spending cash) gearing up for Model 3 for quite some time. That's why the cash burn cannot be directly applied to just S or S+X.

Great link... Apparently TM has access to excel and was able to project several years out with multiple worksheets, columns up to ZZ. May be they should consult some of the bears here, who do not have access to a spreadsheet, business plan, or otherwise fail to understand that TM is a real company making real cars. just sayin'

 

[techmaven]

Also, on Tesla Michigan, which is the renamed Riviera Tool company that Tesla acquired:

Tesla Motors receives Cascade blessing to transfer tool-and-die firm's tax relief

Tesla has retained most of the Riviera staff, with current employment standing at just over 100, which "is up from 88 since they took over," said Peterson. "In addition, they told us that four large machines have already been purchased and are coming to the Cascade plant."

On a related note, Dan Rasky made some great videos discussing the differences between NASA and SpaceX which are applicable to Tesla:

On insourcing the manufacturing of the Pica ablative shield:

Likely Tesla Tool & Die is now making Tesla's time critical dies... after all, Tesla needs to control the critical sections of their timelines. I would recommend watching all of Mr. Rasky's videos wrt SpaceX and by extension, Tesla.

 

[CButterK]

Missed my point entirely.

Pointing out that the shell outline was similar years ago and that Tesla would reuse and improve technologies across their product line does not adequately detail the case you are trying to make...

I apologize, but I think I'm still missing your point... What exactly is the case do you think I'm making? All I'm saying is, I agree with Julian that the Model 3 has less execution risk due to how long it's been in the works(at least 6 years) relative to the S/X development and leverage. Perhaps you were missing my point? If not, based on your automotive design/manufacturing expertise, do you feel that minimum 6 years for a car(that has been their goal since inception of the company) is not a sufficient time to reduce execution risk relative to say, model X?

 

[DaveT]

I am saying that since actually quite some way before Q4 '15 ER even those seeking to feign confusion with malice a forethought have been left zero room for manoeuvre. From Q4 '15 ER onwards - forget about it.

Jan 28 - bear attack inbound guard against realizing losses. What do you think - sound like a bullish call to you? Maybe it does to some, definitely suggested not selling if you happened to be holding stock on the basis it would go up again after ER. Since Q4 '15 ER ER - no. Just buy it or sell it as appropriate in as tight a language as possible without directly offering unsolicited investment advice.

Can you explain what the point is of you trying to claim you have a perfect track record with your TSLA price action calls? This is a serious question I'm asking. I'm not trying to just stir an argument.

 

[sundaymorning]

Brent is back to $50, first time in 7 months.

Brent oil pushes above $50 for first time in nearly 7 months

 

[FredTMC]

Also, on Tesla Michigan, which is the renamed Riviera Tool company that Tesla acquired:

Tesla Motors receives Cascade blessing to transfer tool-and-die firm's tax relief



On a related note, Dan Rasky made some great videos discussing the differences between NASA and SpaceX which are applicable to Tesla:

On insourcing the manufacturing of the Pica ablative shield:

Likely Tesla Tool & Die is now making Tesla's time critical dies... after all, Tesla needs to control the critical sections of their timelines. I would recommend watching all of Mr. Rasky's videos wrt SpaceX and by extension, Tesla.

This was fascinating. Thx. I used to work in space systems. Worked with NASA and AF. Amazing stuff. Rapid prototyping and scale up validation.