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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Anyone who thinks it's a bad thing that Tesla will likely make SuperCharging an option, rather than a standard feature in the Model 3 is very wrong. My bet is all Model 3 will come with the tech built in, and anyone who buys a Model 3 will have the ability to pay for the Supercharger upgrade if they decide they need it. Additionally, I think Tesla said the base model will be ~60kwh, and will have ~250 miles of range, meaning Tesla has significantly improved the battery chemistry and range, meaning Supercharging shouldn't be necessary for a significant number of Model 3 buyers.

I'll also remind you that some Model S did come with the hardware for Supercharging, but required a paid upgrade to use it.
Agreed. But I must have missed something, as what has been stated AFAK is, "supercharging capable", "less than 60kwh", and "min 215 miles of range" for the base model. So, if they confirmed 60kwh & 250 miles range for the base M3, that is awesome news!
 
I sold all of my TSLA stock and I am now ready to join the shorts.

OT: Just kidding. I sold because I am moving back to Australia and etrade told me I can't maintain my account. So I sold a few days ago and made enough for 2 Model 3 deposits .. Win/win :)

Will join back once I am down under. Shorts, Please keep fighting to lower the re-entry point for me.
That's weird, before I moved from Oz to the US, I had an ETrade account. Mind you the foreign money rules have become a lot more stringent since then, but I'm surprised that they would make you close the account. People in Oz, Sydney, in what is the office I used to run for a US corporation, still have ETrade accounts.
 
Agreed. But I must have missed something, as what has been stated AFAK is, "supercharging capable", "less than 60kwh", and "min 215 miles of range" for the base model. So, if they confirmed 60kwh & 250 miles range for the base M3, that is awesome news!

Regarding the battery pack size:

The base Model 3 will be offered with a battery pack option smaller than 60 kWh

Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling

Regarding range:

Tesla announced the driving range in the Model 3 to be “at least 215 miles.” Achieving a 215-mile range will require a pack, most likely, of about 50 kilowatt-hours.
Tesla Model 3

I thought I read somewhere that the base model would have ~250 miles but I can't find the comment. It's possible I was thinking about this quote about the base Model 3 having at least (a minimum of) 215 miles of range.
 
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Just listened to the production number statement. For some context the slide in the background is titled (he was talking about the numbers being added to the Tesla fleet during the year ):
"Tesla Fleet"

He says:
"We are hoping to sort of be at an annualized rate of somewhere between 80-100k cars a year by the end of this year."

I think it's clear that he meant that by the end of the year Tesla will have produced 80-100k cars per year. Not that their run rate would hit that number at the end of the year.

Mitch,
Good job!

Yes. 'Annualized rate' is the operative phrase here. When something is annualized, you have one data point for each year. If there is steady growth, the run rate at each data point is the average for that year, which is effectively the midpoint run rate, which is at end of June.
 
Mitch,
Good job!

Yes. 'Annualized rate' is the operative phrase here. When something is annualized, you have one data point for each year. If there is steady growth, the run rate at each data point is the average for that year, which is effectively the midpoint run rate, which is end of June.

This was more or less my take on it as well.
Production problems seem to have been a feature for the first half of the year which are being sorted out (if not already sorted out). So why would we expect there to be a slow painful increase to 80-100k during Q3-Q4? Presumably production rate in December won't be that different from July.
 
I thought the tone of the meeting was great. This seems the right time to do the history thing, as well as the employee recognition.

We all hunger for the M3 2.0 reveal. For any newcomers since Elon's shout out about TMC the meeting was reveal 1.5, as someone may already have said. Comments (even the bleets) are a shortened guide to the value of this venue for matters about Tesla, the meat of the meeting. Think of it as a summary of its meaning based on physics first principles.
 
Very important and serious question!

What the heck happened to the Amendment proposed by Doug Lamborn, that was an explicit threat aimed at Elon Musk?

Rep. Doug Lamborn (R., Colo.) this week proposed an amendment that would prohibit Mr. Musk from using SpaceX money to buy SolarCity bonds. The provision is intended to send a message to Mr. Musk that congressional Republicans are watching him.
It’s more for messaging it than debating it and bringing it to an actual vote,” Mr. Lamborn said Wednesday. “It’s enough to raise the message about it.

Elon Musk Supports His Business Empire With Unusual Financial Moves

The strange part is it looks like Doug Lamborn is allied with Jim Inhofe. It's hard to tell if this amendment was proposed with the support of Inhofe. There is almost no mention of this amendment on the internet, besides the WSJ article stating Lamborn proposed the amendment, that doesn't say what bill the amendment was attached to, or who Lamborn was working with. I was only able to find the below comment on the following website. I tried to find some mention of this amendment on Lamborn's website, but couldn't find anything.

Congressman Backs Space Renaissance Act, Death Ray Weapons at Parabolic Arc

Lamborn and Jim Langevin (RI-02) have partnered to introduce a House companion bill to legislation introduced in the Senate by Senators Martin Heinrich (D-NM) and James Inhofe (R-OK) designed to allow the military an accelerated process to acquire Directed Energy weapons.

I can't find any website that provides a link to the proposed amendment, or an explanation of what specifically what logic was used to argue for the amendment. The WSJ doesn't even say what Bill Lamborn tried to attach the amendment to. I think Lamborn tried to get it attached to H.R. 4909 - National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017.


NDAA - National Defense Authorization Act

Conveniently Lamborn doesn't highlight this on his website, and it's not clear if it is even mentioned. Also, Lamborn conveniently does not mention his relationship with Inhofe, the most outrageous Climate Change Denier, and lunatic, who has somehow not been deemed unfit to hold office.

 
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This was more or less my take on it as well.
Production problems seem to have been a feature for the first half of the year which are being sorted out (if not already sorted out). So why would we expect there to be a slow painful increase to 80-100k during Q3-Q4? Presumably production rate in December won't be that different from July.
Elon did seem specific that Tesla would exit 2016 at an 80-100k range. If they were leaving Q2 or Q3 at 80-100k, why wouldn't he say they were there, or would be there in September. He's usually pretty optimistic, so going to the right without cause, seems unreasonable. I want to be wrong very much.
 
Very important and serious question!

What the heck happened to the Amendment proposed by Doug Lamborn, that was an explicit threat aimed at Elon Musk?
Maybe he was just talking out his ass, and if he is in fact associated with Imhofe, that would be where this guys brains are. His Facebook is full of rants against government regulation but no mention of his threat to regulate how a privately held company can invest its funds. Must be that dirty word "Solar" that sets off his tiny brain.
 
Elon did seem specific that Tesla would exit 2016 at an 80-100k range. If they were leaving Q2 or Q3 at 80-100k, why wouldn't he say they were there, or would be there in September. He's usually pretty optimistic, so going to the right without cause, seems unreasonable. I want to be wrong very much.

It is the 2016 annual share holder meeting, maybe he just wanted to give a general sense of things for 2016 as a whole, not breaking it down into quarters and such, which seems more appropriate for the quarterly conference calls. But just my take, i am not an expert on how to read these corporate presentations.
 
It is the 2016 annual share holder meeting, maybe he just wanted to give a general sense of things for 2016 as a whole, not breaking it down into quarters and such, which seems more appropriate for the quarterly conference calls. But just my take, i am not an expert on how to read these corporate presentations.
Current rate, exit rate for Q2 and can you re-affirm 80-100k guidance would have been a great question. Perhaps they are having a chuckle watching us fret over the context of the 80-100k, but this is a significant value issue for the stock, at least in the short term.

Edit: Maybe a poll to vote if we think Elon was hedging on 2016 guidance.
 
Current rate, exit rate for Q2 and can you re-affirm 80-100k guidance would have been a great question. Perhaps they are having a chuckle watching us fret over the context of the 80-100k, but this is a significant value issue for the stock, at least in the short term.

Edit: Maybe a poll to vote if we think Elon was hedging on 2016 guidance.

Haha. Remember when people were worried when they thought Musk was only going to show pictures at the model 3 reveal. And even yesterday some people thought Musk was going to step down at the shareholders meeting.
 
Ha Ha Ha! Mr. Hyperbole speaks again, chanting out moonshots to investors. Here is the first para from Q2 2014 shareholder letter. We all know how that went. How quickly we forget the past.

You're being disingenuous. Actually, you're being a lot of things but the forum rules don't allow me to say what those are - which is lucky for you.

How about highlighting the whole part that's relevant, instead of cherry picking what suits your story and changes the context? Like the part that proceeds it and says 'Provided that we execute well...' (That's called a caveat. And no, that's not edible.)
 
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