Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

InsideEV estimates for the US are out.
Model X looks good, and when you throw in a couple hundred worldwide deliveries, it should come out near 5000 deliveries for q2. This is close to my estimate.
Their Model S estimates are lower than i would expect though.

Thx. No disrespect for the good work they do...

As they indicated in there estimates for tesla motors, they don't have any greater insight than anyone else.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'll post this here since it hasn't been mentioned in a long time. Solar City has a similar tiered executive compensation package, that implies SolarCity thinks its stock could be worth as much as $400 per share. However, it might be impossible for Solar City to create that type of value, without merging with Tesla. If Tesla can acquire SolarCity for anywhere near $30, it will be a win win for SolarCity and Tesla.
SolarCity - Current Report

 

[vgrinshpun]

Nice if true. 214 SMA20 looks like resistance. do we have different charts?

Same charts, different temperament, apparently

TSLA did briefly topped SMA 20...

 

[MitchJi]

Should all cars with cruise control be recalled? Cruise control and autopilot provide assistance, but are not yet the ultimate decision makers. The instructions make that clear.

In this case with Tesla, an over-the-air software upgrade will undoubtedly be sent to cars that causes autopilot to better recognize semi-trailers perpendicular to a road. No need to recall cars into Tesla's company owned service centers. With other automakers, their franchised dealerships demand that recalls be handled at the dealerships and not through over-the-air software upgrades.

Tesla to Fix Self-Parking Feature After Consumer Reports Raises Safety Concern

There are fail-safes. The vehicle will stop if it encounters an obstacle that requires additional torque from the motor, a curb, for instance. The vehicle also will stop if anyone touches a door handle, though Tesla didn’t inform car owners of this. Sensors on the vehicle are designed to stop the car if it detects an obstacle in its path. However, the sensors do have blind-spots and cannot see all objects, so it is critical to be vigilant when using this feature, especially if you have children or pets.

When you first enable the feature, a popup screen states that the Summon system may not detect obstacles that are very narrow, or placed very low or high. Our evaluation bore that out. We tried out the Model S P85D with several large objects that a homeowner might leave in a driveway or on the floor of a garage—such as a duffel bag and bicycle—and the car failed to stop before hitting them. One of our testers also damaged one of the car’s 21" wheels against a curb in his garage when using the Summon mode after he was unable to stop it in time. Obviously, Tesla doesn’t intend for the Model S to be used in Summon mode unsupervised, but if the car cannot be relied upon to stop itself to avoid any obstacle, then it must have a foolproof way for the user to apply the brakes remotely.

Clearly Tesla needs better sensors at some point, preferably real soon. I'm not saying that Tesla is to blame for this accident, (I don't think they were) but imagine what could happen if a frazzled mom sets her baby down, and isn't paying attention and runs over her child with summon. Not good regardless of the legal issues.

 

[esk8mw]

Does anyone know how TSLA values finished goods inventory and work in process inventory in the financial statements?

i.e., would they use COGS as the value of the car or expected market value? Or something else?

 

[weak_pig]

The current rate for TSLA is 32.27% on IB.

i'm a bit confused on shorting interest. Assuming if I short a stock when no interest were charged, will I be slapped with short interest if i hold on to the borrowed stock as more and more ppl short and as it approaches the short squeeze? Or I pay whatever interest at the point of Shorting (if any)?

 

[Hawkeye]

Thoughts on inside ev? Anyone already run the numbers with prior estimates and see how off they were? Also US sales are 50% of total world wide sales? If so this estimates show maybe 17000 deliveries and not much of a beat.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[Chickenlittle]

Thoughts on inside ev? Anyone already run the numbers with prior estimates and see how off they were? Also US sales are 50% of total world wide sales? If so this estimates show maybe 17000 deliveries and not much of a beat.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

1. Need to look at * foot note. Estimated not measured or counted
2. June numbers out??? On July 1st, people have 30 days to register cars. How do they have accurate count?

 

[dha]

Question: does InsideEVs ever revise their Tesla delivery numbers after the company's official numbers are out?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Thoughts on inside ev? Anyone already run the numbers with prior estimates and see how off they were? Also US sales are 50% of total world wide sales? If so this estimates show maybe 17000 deliveries and not much of a beat.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

I put a table together with their estimates, using Q1 US % penetrations to SWAG a couple Q2 total estimates.

 

[MikeC]

i'm a bit confused on shorting interest. Assuming if I short a stock when no interest were charged, will I be slapped with short interest if i hold on to the borrowed stock as more and more ppl short and as it approaches the short squeeze? Or I pay whatever interest at the point of Shorting (if any)?

I think some interest is always charged to borrow stocks. The rate can be adjusted daily and your cost to continue shorting would go up as the rate goes up.

 

[CButterK]

Thoughts on inside ev? Anyone already run the numbers with prior estimates and see how off they were? Also US sales are 50% of total world wide sales? If so this estimates show maybe 17000 deliveries and not much of a beat.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Not sure how you are looking at it, but based on the numbers, it seems like a decent beat to me... So, Inside EVs estimate, 5700(800+1200+3700) deliveries of Model S for Q2, and 4630(850+1600+2180) Model X. So for the US in Q2, they are estimating 10,330 S/X delivered. Inside EVs have traditionally been off only 2-4% off(usually to the upside I believe). So conservatively, 10,330x96%=9917 deliveries in the US, and the ratio between US vs ROW(rest of world) have been 49% US and decreasing lately due to increased deliveries in Asia. So, conservatively again, 9917 at 50% =19,834 deliveries. In order to only deliver 17K units, Tesla has to reduce ROW deliveries by 14% vs previous quarters. It seems unlikely. I'll stick to my original estimation of 18.5K+ deliveries for Q2, but more hopeful now that it might be even higher...

 

[Crowded Mind]

Not sure how you are looking at it, but based on the numbers, it seems like a decent beat to me... So, Inside EVs estimate, 5700(800+1200+3700) deliveries of Model S for Q2, and 4630(850+1600+2180) Model X. So for the US in Q2, they are estimating 10,330 S/X delivered. Inside EVs have traditionally been off only 2-4% off(usually to the upside I believe). So conservatively, 10,330x96%=9917 deliveries in the US, and the ratio between US vs ROW(rest of world) have been 49% US and decreasing lately due to increased deliveries in Asia. So, conservatively again, 9917 at 50% =19,834 deliveries. In order to only deliver 17K units, Tesla has to reduce ROW deliveries by 14% vs previous quarters. It seems unlikely. I'll stick to my original estimation of 18.5K+ deliveries for Q2, but more hopeful now that it might be even higher...

Except this is the first quarter with really significant X deliveries which will have a much higher US penetration than 50%. That needs to be accounted for.

 

[Hawkeye]

I put a table together with their estimates, using Q1 US % penetrations to SWAG a couple Q2 total estimates.

Thanks! I was planning on buying some options today to play the deliveries. I will still just further out like September and December calls. We might just be around 17000 deliveries (hopefully not a miss) and not a huge beat. I don't know about international Model x delivery, can't be too many. Elon could easily be relaxed and upbeat knowing production issues have been ironed out but still miss for the quarter.

 

[Hawkeye]

Except this is the first quarter with really significant X deliveries which will have a much higher US penetration than 50%. That needs to be accounted for.

Agree. As far I know there were some China, Norway and Denmark deliveries of the model X. Anyone know of a rough estimate of these deliveries? We could be looking at an another miss this quarter on deliveries.

 

[CButterK]

Except this is the first quarter with really significant X deliveries which will have a much higher US penetration than 50%. That needs to be accounted for.

I Agree on the X. However, they already had bunch of X built but not delivered in Q1, and they have been operating at >2K/week capacity for a while now, which leads me to believe they produced larger % of S to compensate for deliveries to ROW. The volume has to go somewhere, regardless of S or X... You maybe correct that Tesla made a decision to starve ROW to maximize deliveries of X to US, but it seems they have increase production of S to fill the gap, and it seems they were not delivered to the US, so wouldn't it be relatively safe to assume they ended up in ROW for Q2? Am I missing something else here?

 

[austinEV]

Same charts, different temperament, apparently

TSLA did briefly topped SMA 20...

I was genuinely concerned my stockcharts.com was messing up No snark intended.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Agree. As far I know there were some China, Norway and Denmark deliveries of the model X. Anyone know of a rough estimate of these deliveries? We could be looking at an another miss this quarter on deliveries.

We're probably looking at something like 25-50 Model X deliveries in Europe. There were ~7 customer cars in Norway and ~18 in Denmark, plus a few demo cars. I don't know if we're the only markets to have recieved the Model X yet, but we probably aren't looking at huge volumes anywhere in Europe.

I have no idea how many were sent to China - maybe something like 200.

 

[geneclean55]

Question: does InsideEVs ever revise their Tesla delivery numbers after the company's official numbers are out?

Yes, they do. Which makes it difficult to compare their estimates after they change the numbers following release of company numbers.

Unless you took a screenshot or something like that soon after InsideEV release their numbers

 

[geneclean55]

I Agree on the X. However, they already had bunch of X built but not delivered in Q1, and they have been operating at >2K/week capacity for a while now, which leads me to believe they produced larger % of S to compensate for deliveries to ROW. The volume has to go somewhere, regardless of S or X... You maybe correct that Tesla made a decision to starve ROW to maximize deliveries of X to US, but it seems they have increase production of S to fill the gap, and it seems they were not delivered to the US, so wouldn't it be relatively safe to assume they ended up in ROW for Q2? Am I missing something else here?

We're probably looking at something like 25-50 Model X deliveries in Europe. There were ~7 customer cars in Norway and ~18 in Denmark, plus a few demo cars. I don't know if we're the only markets to have recieved the Model X yet, but we probably aren't looking at huge volumes anywhere in Europe.

I have no idea how many were sent to China - maybe something like 200.

If we are including non-US but North American MX deliveries in the ROW of bracket, then up to a couple hundred went to Canada.