Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Seesaw]

Looks like Tesla's problem is not production or demand but logistics. This will improve over time.

 

[tinm]

I'm in this until $1000/share, but the number of misfires and unmet goals keeps piling up. Part of the problem is, I have listened to every single quarterly conference call since 2012, which I probably should not do... For many quarters now he's been announcing goals and then under-delivering followed by one excuse after another, always quick to say there is no demand issue. And I'm still, amazingly, willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on the demand issue. Execution, though . . . I still think Tesla badly needs a world-class COO.

And. . . . I have to say, there is much I am in agreement with the recent rant in here by @Cosmacelf . . . Model X late, Tesla Energy extremely late (go listen to the old conf calls! TE was supposed to be the easy thing compared to Model X rollout).... promised ramp-ups delayed and then delayed and then delayed once more. Elon's often weary/stammering performance especially during recent conf calls... it's exasperating. Oh, I'll hang in there, what else am I gonna do. Backed up the truck on TSLA and still going to wait for a big payday a few years from now, but geez. Then to top it off, the controversial SCTY deal, which screams bailout even if at the same time it's the best way of sparking big synergy/revenue w/ TE...

For long-term investors TSLA is exasperating.

One more thing: even if Q3 is a blowout great quarter, to me it's about as impressive (and reliable) as a broken clock that's right twice a day. Doesn't prove much esp w/ 5000+ late Q2 deliveries now counting as Q3. That's 5000+ demerits right there. For Tesla (and Elon) to prove they've finally hit their stride, they need multiple big-win quarters. I'm not confident of that yet, nor am I of Tesla meeting anywhere near delivery numbers in the four quarters of 2017.

But I ain't going anywhere.

 

[Nagrani]

Tesla increases Q2 production by 20% but falls short of deliveries

 

[MitchJi]

NEM 2.0 Begins In San Diego
Brief Excerpts (not a disaster for SCTY):

California’s original rooftop solar program, Net Energy Metering 1.0 (NEM 1.0), continues in each utilities’s area until homeowners supply more than 5% of the peak load. The first city just passed that threshold. NEM 2.0 starts in San Diego.
<Snip>
“Think about the magnitude of that number, 617 million watts of renewable energy being put on the grid. This is electricity the utility didn’t have to build anything for, they just benefit from it. This is a massive power plant San Diegans put in place at their own expense to the benefit of themselves, other ratepayers and ultimately the utility,” said Daniel Sullivan, of Sullivan Solar Power.

“Transitioning new private solar customers to the next phase of the Net Energy Metering program is another sign that our region is a leader in the clean energy movement,” said Caroline Winn, chief energy delivery officer, SDG&E.

“Rooftop solar is a billion dollar business in San Diego County and increasing, on an annual basis, between 30% and 60%. It is a fast growing industry that represents a lot of activity and jobs that can’t be outsourced to other countries,” continued Sullivan.
<Snip>
“Finally hitting the cap is a good thing. Market confusion over. We all know where we stand. In reality the financial impact of NEM 2.0 impact is only $3 – $15/month for the average rate payer. The lifetime savings of a PV system will always dwarf the minor public purpose program fees represented by NEM 2.0. Solar customers will now have to pay as all rate payers do. NEM 1.0 was a slightly better deal, but solar represents incredible savings over the life of the system, mitigating any downside of the new NEM structure,”added Keith Randahn, Baker Electric Solar Director of Engineering.

“Under the new rules, there is no limit to the amount of people who can go solar. We’re going to continue our transition away from fossil fuels, and everything connected with fossil fuels, to the new energy future,” said Sullivan.
<Snip>
majority of those solar systems produce more electricity than the owners consume during the course of a year. A limited number store their surplus energy on batteries, enabling them to be totally independent of the grid.

“There is no reason San Diego can’t be 100% renewable. That’s where we want to go, that’s where the city wants to go, and that’s where San Diegans want to go. The only organization, that I can think of, that doesn’t want to see this happen is SDG&E. The only reason they wouldn’t want it to happen is that it is not in their best financial interests,” said Sullivan.
<Snip>
“What we need is a utility that supports rooftop assets and rooftop ownership. In SDG&E, we don’t have that and I don’t think we ever will. If SDG&E keeps going down this path, what they are ultimately going to do is bring about their own demise. People are going to start installing advanced energy storage because it makes financial sense to cut the cord. That’s when you have a real solar revolution,” said Sullivan.
He added that while the technology is available, storage is still expensive. Once prices go down, Sullivan Solar Power will be asking customers if they wish to be “dropped off” the grid.

“By 2020, I think you’ll see advanced energy storage being installed at the sites that got us to the cap today,” he said.
<Snip>

 

[Stretch2727]

Ok after the delivery announcement I stopped by the local Tesla store (Paramus NJ). There is quite a lot of information to be gleaned from the cars in the lot.

-First thing I noticed was a line (15-20) of non Tesla's parked (likely illegally) on the entry road. They were all marked in the drivers window as trades to Tesla and not for sale. My guess the hangover from a hectic quarter end.

-Almost all the Tesla's on the lot were marked (Customer, Inventory or Marketing) on the drivers side windshield. This label looked like it was installed in the factory. First time I ever noticed this label, but I thought this might give good information on the demand picture.

-There were 20+ Model X on the lot. All but 2 were marked "customer cars". One was marked inventory. Another with Marketing. (my guess a demo).

-There were 30+ Model S on the lot. Most were marked as "customer cars". There were 8-10 marked as inventory/marketing cars.

After the announcement I was worried there was really a demand issue especially with the Model S. After seeing the lot I really have to believe they just could not get the cars into customer hands in time. By not producing 20K cars they could not deliver the targeted 17K cars. Just that they admitted 50% of the 18K was produced in June shows there were issues with production in April and May. My guess is the Model S change over and the Model X seat recall.

 

[Perfectlogic]

For the past two or three years the bears have been harping on demand is going to fail and every quarter Tesla finds enough demand to keep growing production by 50% a year. In an earlier post I listed several very potent demand levers that will be available to Tesla in the near future. There's nothing new in this "demand is going to fall" argument.

How can you be forecasting a 50% chance of doom and gloom for 3Q when production is already up to 2,000 vehicles/week and enough orders are already in to take Tesla through September? I find nothing enlightening about this discussion. It is the same old demand fears but with the kicker that Tesla won't even be able to maintain its current production rate. Yawn.

Edit: Sorry folks, I realize I'm feeding the bears again. I'm off to enjoy a fun 4th of July. Wishing you all the best regardless of what country you live in.

So what if someone else have been calling the demand peak for years, I haven't, I was bullish 2 years ago. The data we have from production and waiting times are telling a tale I haven't seen before now, the S demand has flattened out the last few quarters at around the 50k/year rate, 1k/week. Orders are not in to take Tesla through September, delivery is September if you order today for most places, but that is very different from "through September" as most deliveries takes place in the last month of the quarter, both international and US.

Does it really matter if the guidance of a fast growing company is off by a few days? If those 5k in transit were delivered wouldn't they have beat guidance? Assuming they make 6-8k this month, won't July end up being their best month ever?

They weren't delivered, and Tesla knew the cars in transit would go up. They also missed on cars produced. July might end up being their best month ever but that is expected, Tesla is priced for growth and has guided for 80-90k, which they will now miss most likely.

 

[electracity]

One more thing: even if Q3 is a blowout great quarter, to me it's about as impressive (and reliable) as a broken clock that's right twice a day. Doesn't prove much esp w/ 5000+ late Q2 deliveries now counting as Q3.

I agree. I think Q3 will be big, but that doesn't indicate a trend. From Fred's site:

 

[BornToFly]

After putting mmd, Perfect logic, and X Yes on ignore, this thread is wonderful. I recommend that those of you complaining about the trolls do the same. I chuckle when I think about the time they spent typing their FUD and the fact that I will never even see it. They can type to an invisible board all day. Priceless.

 

[X Yes?]

After putting mmd, Perfect logic, and X Yes on ignore, this thread is wonderful. I recommend that those of you complaining about the trolls do the same. I chuckle when I think about the time they spent typing their FUD and the fact that I will never even see it. They can type to an invisible board all day. Priceless.

Hey, you don't even need the thread. You've got a theory and you're sticking with it. The heck with new information.

Maybe you'll wake up in 2020, a billionaire. Some lottery players get rich too!

 

[Drax7]

We have just had 2 quarters of large misses, who says they will hit their ambitious Q3 target, at this point I think the chance of a miss is greater than 50%. The demand situation is also up in the air, did Tesla get a temp boost from adding the S60 that will fall off a bit in a few months? Is what is holding deliveries up right now eating some of the X backlog? Perhaps, I think the X waiting times have shortened quite a bit.



Tesla knew the number of cars in transit would go up, that will happen as you deliver more cars. 5k in transit isn't a huge number when you are producing 2k/week.

Stick to solar panels, you don't know enough even to speculate

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I have listened to every single quarterly conference call since 2012, which I probably should not do... For many quarters now he's been announcing goals and then under-delivering followed by one excuse after another, always quick to say there is no demand issue. And I'm still, amazingly, willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on the demand issue. Execution, though . . . I still think Tesla badly needs a world-class COO.

For long-term investors TSLA is exasperating.

I started following the saga of Tesla Motors back in 2008, about 2 years before IPO.

The same stuff was going on back then.

The Tesla Roadster was the pinnacle of big promises, but deliveries were uneven and quality problems plagued batches of cars. Around this time, I recall that Elon was promising Model S to launch around 2010. Tesla Motors nearly went out of business that year, but they were also a supplier to Mercedes Benz at the time, and Daimler offered them financial assistance as a result.

Going back even further to the early 2000's, the company grossly underestimated the time and money it would take to even get the Roaster to the stage it was at in 2007-2008.

Business management has always been the problem at Tesla. I've been saying for years that Tesla needs a "Tim Cook" in its top management ranks.

 

[Drax7]

I started following the saga of Tesla Motors back in 2008, about 2 years before IPO.

The same stuff was going on back then.

The Tesla Roadster was the pinnacle of big promises, but deliveries were uneven and quality problems plagued batches of cars. Around this time, I recall that Elon was promising Model S to launch around 2010. Tesla Motors nearly went out of business that year, but they were also a supplier to Mercedes Benz at the time, and Daimler offered them financial assistance as a result.

Going back even further to the early 2000's, the company grossly underestimated the time and money it would take to even get the Roaster to the stage it was at in 2007-2008.

Business management has always been the problem at Tesla. I've been saying for years that Tesla needs a "Tim Cook" in its top management ranks.

You make a good point . Elon as ceo of PayPal was eventually booted out and probably
For similar reasons.

 

[Seesaw]

Elon has said previously that he spends 80% of his time on product design and development

 

[JeffreyY]

Ok after the delivery announcement I stopped by the local Tesla store (Paramus NJ). There is quite a lot of information to be gleaned from the cars in the lot.

-First thing I noticed was a line (15-20) of non Tesla's parked (likely illegally) on the entry road. They were all marked in the drivers window as trades to Tesla and not for sale. My guess the hangover from a hectic quarter end.

-Almost all the Tesla's on the lot were marked (Customer, Inventory or Marketing) on the drivers side windshield. This label looked like it was installed in the factory. First time I ever noticed this label, but I thought this might give good information on the demand picture.

-There were 20+ Model X on the lot. All but 2 were marked "customer cars". One was marked inventory. Another with Marketing. (my guess a demo).

-There were 30+ Model S on the lot. Most were marked as "customer cars". There were 8-10 marked as inventory/marketing cars.

After the announcement I was worried there was really a demand issue especially with the Model S. After seeing the lot I really have to believe they just could not get the cars into customer hands in time. By not producing 20K cars they could not deliver the targeted 17K cars. Just that they admitted 50% of the 18K was produced in June shows there were issues with production in April and May. My guess is the Model S change over and the Model X seat recall.

Thx for the Intel!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

You make a good point . Elon as ceo of PayPal was eventually booted out and probably
For similar reasons.

I'd recommend this book to get one person's unbiased view of what happened at PayPal: https://www.amazon.com/Elon-Musk-SpaceX-Fantastic-Future/dp/0062301233

Ironically, Elon used the same maneuvers employed against him at PayPal to depose Martin Eberhard from Tesla. As I recall, Elon's position was that Eberhard had mismanaged Tesla's finances to the point where the Roadster was costing the company 2x its selling price, and Eberhard's position was that Elon's interference in the Roadster development and engineering was the cause of costly re-designs. The real truth? Probably somewhere in between, and probably none of us will never know the exact truth.

The one thing I took away from Mr. Vance's book was that Elon doesn't think in terms of quarters, and that he actually detests the hassle of Tesla and SolarCity being publicly traded companies because of the "quarterly earnings" mentality. It's why SpaceX has stayed private, because the short term demands of investors are incompatible with a decades-long goal of getting to Mars. I don't like my brokerage account balance going downwards due to bad quarterly results any more than others, but I don't think Elon Musk has any concern for the short term angst of the retail investment community. This is the "short term" thread (but not the trading strategies thread: TSLA Trading Strategies), so I realize that most people here are thinking about the short term outlook, but I really don't think TSLA will make many people money in the short term most of the time. 2013-2014 was an aberration.

 

[madodel]

After putting mmd, Perfect logic, and X Yes on ignore, this thread is wonderful. I recommend that those of you complaining about the trolls do the same. I chuckle when I think about the time they spent typing their FUD and the fact that I will never even see it. They can type to an invisible board all day. Priceless.

They spend a lot of time conversing amongst themselves.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Stick to solar panels, you don't know enough even to speculate

That's funny because 6 weeks ago I predicted that Tesla would do a push for demand very soon if they had any cards up their sleeve, and lo and behold what happened, what might be the biggest push for demand so far with both the S60 and the $1000 discount.

They spend a lot of time conversing amongst themselves.

That's also pretty funny as the bulls are clearly the ones who enjoy the echo chamber and cries out every time someone doesn't agree that it is smooth sailing to a trillion dollar market cap for TSLA. I have never seen a bearish poster say they have put someone on ignore, we are not here to ignore the opposite site of the argument and call them trolls, that would be you.

 

[sundaymorning]

Ok after the delivery announcement I stopped by the local Tesla store (Paramus NJ). There is quite a lot of information to be gleaned from the cars in the lot.

-First thing I noticed was a line (15-20) of non Tesla's parked (likely illegally) on the entry road. They were all marked in the drivers window as trades to Tesla and not for sale. My guess the hangover from a hectic quarter end.

-Almost all the Tesla's on the lot were marked (Customer, Inventory or Marketing) on the drivers side windshield. This label looked like it was installed in the factory. First time I ever noticed this label, but I thought this might give good information on the demand picture.

-There were 20+ Model X on the lot. All but 2 were marked "customer cars". One was marked inventory. Another with Marketing. (my guess a demo).

-There were 30+ Model S on the lot. Most were marked as "customer cars". There were 8-10 marked as inventory/marketing cars.

After the announcement I was worried there was really a demand issue especially with the Model S. After seeing the lot I really have to believe they just could not get the cars into customer hands in time. By not producing 20K cars they could not deliver the targeted 17K cars. Just that they admitted 50% of the 18K was produced in June shows there were issues with production in April and May. My guess is the Model S change over and the Model X seat recall.

This is pretty consistent with Tesla's statement about the 5,000 in transit. I don't doubt Tesla one bit. 5,000 cars are a lot of be "lying"'about. It is what it is, bears and their unicorn demand theories hahah. Tesla will peak at 25,000, they'll never hit 50,000, 80,000 is impossible, 150,000? No way. 500,000 not in my lifetime. 1 million...... And so the demand unicorn goes on. in the meantime, demand for Mercedes, Audis, BMWs have dropped.. customers must be headed somewhere right? Gee I wonder where? Do yourself a favor, go long, Bulls. And pay less attention to bears who "supposedly" sold their shares Friday but never posted their positions here.

 

[Perfectlogic]

After putting mmd, Perfect logic, and X Yes on ignore, this thread is wonderful. I recommend that those of you complaining about the trolls do the same. I chuckle when I think about the time they spent typing their FUD and the fact that I will never even see it. They can type to an invisible board all day. Priceless.

Being proud of ignoring any bearish view on the stock you are invested in, how cute.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very interesting.

Russia gets on the Hyperloop: Government invests in Elon Musk's system