Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

Personally, I have never used the 'ignore' button. I can not do all the research myself and want to avoid confirmation bias. So, I welcome all opinions, information and links to articles, analysts' reports and views.

The time I spend on this and a couple other sites does have a cost but so does losing money by not trying to learn and stay informed about current or future investments.

if the conversation goes down a 'rabbit hole' between a couple other forum members I realize that and skim/skip those conversations.

Just about everyone here has gotten caught up in a rabbit hole before, myself included. If I chose to ignore everyone that did I would miss some of good information/thought provoking information that they might post on another day. And, putting myself on the ignore list for going down a rabbit hole ...my wife and daughter already do that..........

 

[PaulusdB]

Personally, I have never used the 'ignore' button. I can not do all the research myself and want to avoid confirmation bias. So, I welcome all opinions, information and links to articles, analysts' reports and views.

The time I spend on this and a couple other sites does have a cost but so does losing money by not trying to learn and stay informed about current or future investments.

if the conversation goes down a 'rabbit hole' between a couple other forum members I realize that and skim/skip those conversations.

Just about everyone here has gotten caught up in a rabbit hole before, myself included. If I chose to ignore everyone that did I would miss some of good information/thought provoking information that they might post on another day. And, putting myself on the ignore list for going down a rabbit hole ...my wife and daughter already do that..........

IIRC the list of 'ignorers' is visible to the ignored member.
The length of this list should work as deterrent to them...

 

[Seesaw]

it was a decent quarter. Production is up 20%. 15,000 delivered with another 5,000 en route to customers is a great effort.

It is a growth company, there will be bottlenecks with only 250 stores servicing the planet. The great thing is these are increasing all the time and there is probably massive scope for delivery and shipping streamlining.

 

[cluster]

Tesla Q2 delivery (14,370) is down 440 from Q1 (14,810), making it the first sequential decrease.
However, with "5,150 completed Model S/X orders in transit", why couldn't they deliver the extra 440 units?

Suppose they were close to 2000/week production. A significant bulk of these 5150 cars must be made about three weeks before the end of June, e.g., 1700 for week 2/3/4 of June, respectively. Usually, Tesla pushed hard for US deliveries at the end of quarter, so it is probably safe to say about 800 cars produced in the week 2 of June were for US delivery, which means Tesla had about three weeks to deliver 800 cars for US customers. But they missed it by 440 units, only ~3% of 14,810.

Can someone explain to me how possible? (unless all were Model X requiring weeks of QC at the service center)

 

[mmd]

Ok after the delivery announcement I stopped by the local Tesla store (Paramus NJ). There is quite a lot of information to be gleaned from the cars in the lot.

-First thing I noticed was a line (15-20) of non Tesla's parked (likely illegally) on the entry road. They were all marked in the drivers window as trades to Tesla and not for sale. My guess the hangover from a hectic quarter end.

-Almost all the Tesla's on the lot were marked (Customer, Inventory or Marketing) on the drivers side windshield. This label looked like it was installed in the factory. First time I ever noticed this label, but I thought this might give good information on the demand picture.

-There were 20+ Model X on the lot. All but 2 were marked "customer cars". One was marked inventory. Another with Marketing. (my guess a demo).

-There were 30+ Model S on the lot. Most were marked as "customer cars". There were 8-10 marked as inventory/marketing cars.

After the announcement I was worried there was really a demand issue especially with the Model S. After seeing the lot I really have to believe they just could not get the cars into customer hands in time. By not producing 20K cars they could not deliver the targeted 17K cars. Just that they admitted 50% of the 18K was produced in June shows there were issues with production in April and May. My guess is the Model S change over and the Model X seat recall.

Thanks for the info! Was there no security checking while you checked out 50+ cars in the lot?

So it seems most here find it okay that 8-10 out of a total of 50 cars were marked for inventory and parked at the store parking lot. Why, in a built-to-order system that Tesla uses, is this a sign of "no demand issue" ? This 20% inventory out of 50 cars seems in-line with 1440 missing vs 5150 delayed customer delivery cars.

 

[PaulusdB]

IIRC the list of 'ignorers' is visible to the ignored member.
The length of this list should work as deterrent to them...

Thanks for your support for this post, @mmd.
You haven't made it to my ignore list, but I appreciate your request.

 

[X Yes?]

IIRC the list of 'ignorers' is visible to the ignored member.
The length of this list should work as deterrent to them...

If you have ignored me, it's not visible. I can't say I would care, I'm not interested in having a conversation with someone that refuses to change their position in the face of new information. I prefer to reach people that can challenge me with new information or angles I have not considered.

I did ask for someone to state the demand case, so far crickets...

 

[X Yes?]

There were 30+ Model S on the lot. Most were marked as "customer cars". There were 8-10 marked as inventory/marketing cars.

30% of Model S going into inventory is not a reassuring data point for demand.

 

[EinSV]

If you have ignored me, it's not visible. I can't say I would care, I'm not interested in having a conversation with someone that refuses to change their position in the face of new information. I prefer to reach people that can challenge me with new information or angles I have not considered.

I did ask for someone to state the demand case, so far crickets...

Please see the "Demand" thread which is dedicated to this topic, as well as the previous 1158 pages of this thread.

Incidentally, I am glad that you have finally decided to fess up on your short position, which you evaded or denied while trolling the Suspension-Gate thread, the "woman drives into her nail salon" thread, etc.

I am sure it feels good to have finally gotten that off your chest.

 

[X Yes?]

Incidentally, I am glad that you have finally decided to fess up on your short position, which you evaded or denied while trolling the Suspension-Gate thread, the "woman drives into her nail salon" thread, etc.

You need to go back and check your notes. I never claimed to have a short position, but I now believe there will be an attractive entry point in the double digits.

 

[Drumheller]

30% of Model S going into inventory is not a reassuring data point for demand.

I agree, but we don't know that. We have one data point. Also, having 30% of cars on site at that time marked as inventory doesn't mean 30% are going into inventory. Those cars could have been set aside for days / weeks while the focus was on delivering customer cars. So there may have been hundreds of cars that went through while those inventory cars sat ignored for the end of quarter rush.

We simply do not have enough information to definitively state what demand looks like. Everything is conjecture based on small pieces of information that may be unrelated.

 

[EinSV]

You need to go back and check your notes. I never claimed to have a short position, but I now believe there will be an attractive entry point in the double digits.

I see. Just a concerned citizen for now.

 

[AlMc]

30% of Model S going into inventory is not a reassuring data point for demand.

I agree, but we don't know that. We have one data point. Also, having 30% of cars on site at that time marked as inventory doesn't mean 30% are going into inventory. Those cars could have been set aside for days / weeks while the focus was on delivering customer cars. So there may have been hundreds of cars that went through while those inventory cars sat ignored for the end of quarter rush.

We simply do not have enough information to definitively state what demand looks like. Everything is conjecture based on small pieces of information that may be unrelated.

That is only one data point and we can not be sure what it represents. My case in point: I have good contacts within my local Service Center (Devon). Truck transports come and go all the time. Some of those cars stay and some move to other SCs.
Paramus is also a 'point of entry' for several other SCs in the northeast. So, many of those vehicles seen in Paramus may be headed to several other Scs..just waiting for transport.

 

[sdtslafan]

I see. Just a concerned citizen for now.

You need to go back and check your notes. I never claimed to have a short position, but I now believe there will be an attractive entry point in the double digits.

As with any rapid growth company, anything is possible. But there is nothing at this point to support a drop to double digits. There really isn't anything to support a drop to 200.

Having watched this stock daily and incessantly for over 3 years, things are never as bad as they may seem.

In November 2013, we missed guidance followed by a fire the next day and a total of 3 fires within a month. This was a very perilous time for the company because there was concern that the Model S had a problem and it was the ONLY product the company had. Even at that time, in the middle of an NHSTA investigation, the stop never dropped below 115.

Since then, the company has added a shield which completely remedied the risk of fires. In addition, Tesla added dual motor, autopilot, the Model X, Model 3 prototype, Tesla Powerwall and Powerpack, and Gigafactory.

Due to growing pains with the ramp which have diminished investor confidence, the current stock price is one which has factored in extreme pessimism. Unless there is an unexpected catastrophe, chances are the stock will rise from here.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'd like to know, honestly, what people hope to achieve by bickering and being confrontational here.

First: I am a long-term investor in TSLA, though my holdings are very small compared to the majority here, and I am not in the financial position to trade frequently or use options. I am biased in favor of Tesla Motors as a company, because I like the company's technology and vision, and believe it has a substantial chance of drastically changing transport and energy use. However, I also recognize that being in favor of a company is not necessarily being in favor of a stock. I use an iPhone and wouldn't use any other phone right now, but as many of you know, I have been searingly critical of Apple recently and wouldn't hold shares in AAPL.

How much of a difference does it make to either try to pump up expectations to absurd levels, or try to beat down the stock by spreading FUD? What does this contribute to the forum? Are people trying to help each other? Or is this just a big gloating/Lulz contest depending on whose account is looking greener at the moment?

 

[neroden]

I'd recommend this book to get one person's unbiased view of what happened at PayPal: Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future: Ashlee Vance: 9780062301239: Amazon.com: Books

Ironically, Elon used the same maneuvers employed against him at PayPal to depose Martin Eberhard from Tesla. As I recall, Elon's position was that Eberhard had mismanaged Tesla's finances to the point where the Roadster was costing the company 2x its selling price, and Eberhard's position was that Elon's interference in the Roadster development and engineering was the cause of costly re-designs.

Elon has made statements to the effect that the redesigns were necessary to lower the long-term production cost. Which is probably true. And they probably were expensive.

The real truth? Probably somewhere in between, and probably none of us will never know the exact truth.

The one thing I took away from Mr. Vance's book was that Elon doesn't think in terms of quarters, and that he actually detests the hassle of Tesla and SolarCity being publicly traded companies because of the "quarterly earnings" mentality. It's why SpaceX has stayed private, because the short term demands of investors are incompatible with a decades-long goal of getting to Mars. I don't like my brokerage account balance going downwards due to bad quarterly results any more than others, but I don't think Elon Musk has any concern for the short term angst of the retail investment community. This is the "short term" thread (but not the trading strategies thread: TSLA Trading Strategies), so I realize that most people here are thinking about the short term outlook, but I really don't think TSLA will make many people money in the short term most of the time. 2013-2014 was an aberration.

I agree. I'm a long-termer. I basically look here because it's become the de facto investors social chat thread, and useful tidbits of data tend to drop here. Also, since I'm doing short put strategies, it's worth keeping an eye on whether they'll get assigned.

 

[neroden]

Ok after the delivery announcement I stopped by the local Tesla store (Paramus NJ). There is quite a lot of information to be gleaned from the cars in the lot.

-First thing I noticed was a line (15-20) of non Tesla's parked (likely illegally) on the entry road. They were all marked in the drivers window as trades to Tesla and not for sale. My guess the hangover from a hectic quarter end.

-Almost all the Tesla's on the lot were marked (Customer, Inventory or Marketing) on the drivers side windshield. This label looked like it was installed in the factory. First time I ever noticed this label, but I thought this might give good information on the demand picture.

-There were 20+ Model X on the lot. All but 2 were marked "customer cars". One was marked inventory. Another with Marketing. (my guess a demo).

-There were 30+ Model S on the lot. Most were marked as "customer cars". There were 8-10 marked as inventory/marketing cars.

Thanks for the data. Do you know what the inventory/marketing split was? I've been *very* curious about this. I've been trying to figure out how many cars are being devoted to marketing.

 

[MartinAustin]

Model S & Model X

You'll notice that the web site has been redesigned to equally market the Model X and Model S. This is a big milestone for the company. For the first time, they're no longer cautious about creating demand for the Model X.

 

[neroden]

I too am fascinated to see what happens this week. We know that the buying the last couple of weeks hasn't been shorts covering because the short shares have risen to their limits. A big negative response would indicate that buying was based upon expectations of a beat on 2Q delivery numbers, but I think those expectations were much higher on this forum than in the general investor's ranks

I strongly suspect that Fidelity increased their stake. They've been doing so at every downturn. Probably some other existing institutional investors did the same thing. Institutional buying pressure is a really bad situation for anyone who's shorted the stock....

 

[neroden]

Who could possibly sell tomorrow because of the delivery miss but knowing there were 19,000+ orders for the quarter?

• Shorts but no shares to short
• Weak hands but most could have already exited their position on SC merger, AP death and suspense gate
• Institutional holders? Unlikely, could rationalize Q2 may be cash flow positive if ABL from 5150 in transit vehicles is accessed
• Retail investors - if they held thru prior SP plunges, why exit now knowing real production ramp up has begun
• Only possible sellers are new disgruntled investors swayed by all the negativity, despair sets in by similar minded folks and decide to lemming march to the nearest cliffline.
• Others? I'm open to other scenarios

Institutional investors who are unhappy with the SC merger but due to large stakes were unable to unload all their shares at once and are feeding them onto the market slowly?