Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

This was an excellent lay out of his vision. I believe it can be achieved but a plan is 'sizzle'. Execution of the plan is the steak. Sizzle, IMO, does not lead to a short squeeze.

I expect a positive but muted response to the SP and no short squeeze simply triggered by this statement.

It may occur after the GF party if it becomes apparent that cells are flowing at a more rapid rate than WS expected and/or the CC part of the Q2 ER has information shared of a positive nature that WS did not expect

 

[TMSE]

This was an excellent lay out of his vision. I believe it can be achieved but a plan is 'sizzle'. Execution of the plan is the steak. Sizzle, IMO, does not lead to a short squeeze.

I expect a positive but muted response to the SP and no short squeeze simply triggered by this statement.

It may occur after the GF party if it becomes apparent that cells are flowing at a more rapid rate than WS expected and/or the CC part of the Q2 ER has information shared of a positive nature that WS did not expect

Short squeeze will happen in earnest after confirmation of Q3 production guidance on August 3rd. I expect it to be around 24K.

 

[dandurston]

Looks good. Will be interesting to watch the stock tomorrow.

My guess is a modest rise (~$234).

 

[kbeckley]

Love the plan. Also agree that Tesla Energy and the factory as a machine will be undervalued in the ensuing discussion of future models.

 

[sundaymorning]

This was an excellent lay out of his vision. I believe it can be achieved but a plan is 'sizzle'. Execution of the plan is the steak. Sizzle, IMO, does not lead to a short squeeze.

I expect a positive but muted response to the SP and no short squeeze simply triggered by this statement.

It may occur after the GF party if it becomes apparent that cells are flowing at a more rapid rate than WS expected and/or the CC part of the Q2 ER has information shared of a positive nature that WS did not expect

Don't forget Tesla was built on sizzle. It ipo on sizzle, investors jumped in on S sizzle and then X sizzle. Sizzle is exactly what I need to hear inirder to buy even more shares.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

My guess a 5% pop minimum. Everybody wants a piece of this.

 

[racer26]

I agree with the earlier poster that Elon's vision of a city bus replacement is the real reason so much effort went into making falconwings work.

I also think that the reason that Elon says they're going to be unveiling the Semi and the Bus next year, is because the Model 3 line? Its not, and likely never was, *just* the Model 3 line. Its a flex line that was designed from the ground up to be able to produce a whole range of vehicles, which have been under development a lot longer than anyone truly realizes. And so converting it to add the extra vehicles to it won't have nearly the same standup time as MS/MX/M3.

 

[tinm]

I'm unclear when Elon says building the factory as a product . . . as in, sell factories as "kits" to other automakers? Or, skip legacy automakers altogether (too slow to change, not nimble enough), and sell to anyone or any company who wants a "factory" to pump out their own cars, and Tesla gets a cut of each? Maybe Tesla sells factory products to, oh, Google? Apple?

Maybe this is why the patents were given away? Because they plan to sell turnkey factories as products... Thing to keep an eye out for now is this: will these new factory-as-product designs be patented or also giveaways?

 

[MitchJi]

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

This is a really aggressive schedule for battery costs and for full autonomy! Which means that they have good reasons for that optimism.

 

[AlMc]

Don't forget Tesla was built on sizzle. It ipo on sizzle, investors jumped in on S sizzle and then X sizzle. Sizzle is exactly what I need to hear inirder to buy even more shares.

You are quite right. But TSLA has been range bound for some time because at least recently there have been several missed guidances (steak)
Despite some sizzle in the CCs.

I admit that I could be wrong and the SP will skyrocket because of this...boo hoo for me And the other bulls as We will profit nicely.

Just saying that we need to get to a 'win feels like a win' before we see ATHs

And IMO...,in the short term...this thread....it is unlikely that this propels the SP up quickly

 

[Crowded Mind]

Julian Cox should not be banned. Thank you for presenting this case to us months ago.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Julian Cox should not be banned. Thank you for presenting this case to us months ago.

If they let him back, he has to keep his posts to 144 characters.

 

[Xpert]

I think we're going to get a lot of Tesla Energy info at the Gigafactory party. The version 1.0 Model 3 factory in 2018 will probably also be able to build the Model Y.

Gigafactory party yes. Model Y 2019 possibly. Truck is a no until after 2020 I'd say.

 

[Electrifying]

Julian Cox should not be banned. Thank you for presenting this case to us months ago.

Looks like he still writes at cleantechnica : http://cleantechnica.com/author/julian/

 

[austinEV]

I am struck by how well written it is. I never really had Elon pegged as a top notch writer.

I think the headline takeaway is the intention to do a semi. That is interesting and as far as I can recall, new. So that is a new trillion dollar industry to think about now.

Smp2 is well done, thank you Elon. Mostly content we expected with a few surprises, very well articulated. An easy primer for new tesla enthusiasts to understand the mission.

I actually do expect a rally tomorrow just on the semi and strength of the message overall.

 

[Xpert]

My guess a 5% pop minimum. Everybody wants a piece of this.

I'd bet no. Perhaps 2% up at amateur hours then back down with market. No energy no squeeze.

 

[jhm]

I, for one, hope that the stock price does not rally. The important thing is the course Tesla is setting, not silly market "validation," wherein momentum traders hype up gains only to dump the stock at the next peak price. No let's keep the price down and keep the stock to ourselves. Hype traders should stay the hell away.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm unclear when Elon says building the factory as a product . . . as in, sell factories as "kits" to other automakers? Or, skip legacy automakers altogether (too slow to change, not nimble enough), and sell to anyone or any company who wants a "factory" to pump out their own cars, and Tesla gets a cut of each? Maybe Tesla sells factory products to, oh, Google? Apple?

Maybe this is why the patents were given away? Because they plan to sell turnkey factories as products... Thing to keep an eye out for now is this: will these new factory-as-product designs be patented or also giveaways?

The Model S is a product. It has a purpose (to transport people) and its design was thought out in great detail with the intent of achieving greater efficiency, higher performance, lower cost, and more utility.

Elon is talking about thinking of the manufacturing process (the factory) the same way: Devoting time to designing the factory and the manufacturing/production processes with a purpose in mind (to build cars) but with greater efficiency (more cars per minute), with higher performance (better quality), and at a lower cost. Basically conceiving a better factory, and devoting engineers to the task of achieving that goal through innovative designs, iteration, and testing.

 

[dakh]

I'm thinking this will circulate news Friday and over the weekend and we get a good pop Monday amateur hour. That's on top of whatever action happens Friday, which I still am not sure what that'd be. How do I trade this?

 

[steve3]

I think the headline takeaway is the intention to do a semi. That is interesting and as far as I can recall, new. So that is a new trillion dollar industry to think about now.

Actually, JB said earlier this year that logistics was very interesting to Tesla. I believe it was at the conference in Germany around the time of the shareholders meeting. Agreed, absurdly huge opportunity here.

SMP2 brings Tesla Energy, Tesla Mobility & Tesla Logistics businesses in view, albeit not yet tangible. This sets the table for a refresh of how to view and value TSLA, a story stock again...but with the added history of what has been accomplished to date (no longer a hope and a prayer starting from scratch). Like an infant getting his/her legs, it may be wobbly short term, but lookout once it takes off.