Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[jhm]

On the flip side, I wonder what the chances are that SolarCity is pushing for a better deal. I don't pretend to know what their books look like, but Elon himself said that the company will be generating cash in the near future.

I plotted the historical SCTY/TSLA ratio and it looks like this is about the lowest it's ever been. The pink band represents the 0.122-0.131 exchange offer and the red dot is 6/21/16, the last trading day before the offer.

View attachment 187698

Thanks for the chart. Love it!

As far as a better deal goes, I can tell you that as a SolarCity shareholder I'd be delighted with .122. Why? Because I believe the combined company's stock will appreciate much faster than SCTY alone. It's the growth rate that matters in the long run.

What you see clearly in your chart is that this ratio has been declining for years. This means that Tesla has been appreciating faster than SolarCity. I don't believe that the merger will slow Tesla down at all. Rather it could speed it up and extend the decades of high growth opportunity. So had this merger happened a year ago at the market rate, SolarCity shareholders would have been much better off than they are today. Getting an exchange rate at a premium to market would be nice, but not at all necessary for this benefit.

Simply put, SolarCity shareholders will do better with this merger at any rate near the market rate than they will without the deal. I see no other suitor willing to pay more or capable of accelerating growth as well as Tesla. So we need to just get this done quickly. No need to haggle over a rate as generous as 0.122.

 

[austinEV]

@austinEV -- any news?

Slowly pushing through tours. Behind schedule due to a freak storm. Elon is supposed to go in in 49 min. But Elon time so who knows. I haven't toured but saw pix. Photography encouraged. Lots of pack manufacturing.

 

[racer26]

There's a few videos from the party and tours on periscope right now. At least one is live.

One seems to be livestreaming the tour itself, they just went through a section for pressing the cathode material to ~60-80um thick.

 

[austinEV]

Slowly pushing through tours. Behind schedule due to a freak storm. Elon is supposed to go in in 49 min. But Elon time so who knows. I haven't toured but saw pix. Photography encouraged. Lots of pack manufacturing.

Edit : holy cow it's a fun party.

 

[austinEV]

Edit : holy cow it's a fun party.

Yeah look at my Twitter for pics and drunken rambling

 

[racer26]

The periscope video I'm watching is demonstrating a new AGV for moving stuff around inside the factory that doesn't depend on floor-mounted guidance, (I'm guessing its loosely autopilot based) its smart enough to not run into people walking around the factory.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Speculation is that the in-pack aging is a key driver for 3X efficiency gains in the gigafactory

...appears to be speculation indeed. Here is short video by Maye Musk ... of the Cell Aging Room at the GF

Maye Musk on Twitter

 

[tinm]

Finally. A link to the official Tesla upcoming live stream.

 

[Citizen-T]

Oh thank God---they are using YouTube. Finally, something that can handle the load.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Oh thank God---they are using YouTube. Finally, something that can handle the load.

That was irony right, got it buffering multiple times :/

 

[racer26]

audio right on cue? are we actually going to start basically on time?

 

[tinm]

Is the feed choppy and failing for others too?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

And now I'm seeing JB and Elon talking, but text and feed not synced and it's buffering again...

 

[mrdoubleb]

Is the feed choppy and failing for others too?

yeah... are they using a dial-up modem?

EDIT: OK, video is now down...

 

[racer26]

Not you. Choppy for me too. And I'm on a gigabit internet connection.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

And now the streamer has stopped streaming... Great...

 

[racer26]

and they just stopped streaming.

 

[ggies07]

I switched to this....

 

[Mario Kadastik]

It's back, but the video feed is pretty much fast lipped Elon ... geez... They should take the guys from SpaceX video streaming service

 

[Citizen-T]

Yeah. That's not YouTube, that's something funky on Tesla's end.