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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Ever the pragmatist, that Elon Musk.

Just as somebody is going to die on their way to Mars or on Mars. Life is a risk. Advancing technology, doing what's never been done before...all add risk. Mix in human fallibility, stupidity, bad luck etc... and additional risk is added. I grew up riding my bike all over town, often times without my hands on the handlebars, and certainly without a helmet. Every time had a level of risk. I knew it as a child, my parents certainly knew it.

If some people would rather exist in a bubble than live, then they should go do that and leave others to their own devices; destructive or otherwise.

You know, unfortunate as it is, it is only when these things happen; accidents, death, that the majority of people using autopilot (for example), will take the warnings seriously enough to actually pay full attention; not climb into the back seat, have a nap, watch a movie, etc. The reality of the risk is driven home (no pun intended). The more incidents that remind us of the risk, the more we take the warnings to heart. That is just the way it is.
Does anyone really think that humans at the wheel would be as alert and attentive as they are if 30,000+ people a year didn't die in car crashes?
 
I guess it depends how you do it. If you have a standard shingle, American roof, it seems expensive to tear that off and replace it with a new roof. My house's roof costs about as much as a solar electric system needed to power the house completely ($24k or so). To me that is a nonstarter for most people. If you are going to put a membrane on the roof, like they do on flat commercial roof, it has to be attached down by glue, and it is very thin. At the moment, solar doesn't work on thin, tough, waterproof membranes. It could be done, but the wind force on flat object increased exponentially as size increases (though, I haven't thought about those formulas for many, many years, so I can't quote them), and you make a sail. The tech seems to be aimed at thin solutions inside of windows right now.

New construction/roof replacement is the time for solar roofs, rest of the time, regular old system of panels on roof is fine. At construction time, if solar is the roof, that could potentially be cheaper than solar on roof.
 
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I know there are some Chinese options, like these: Zhejiang Heda Solar Technology Co.,Ltd

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if these are solar shingles, how many connections are out there in the weather? does anyone remember UniSolar and their flexable roll solar PV (low power) If you replace a bad 1 or 2 in the middle of the roof, do you walk on and crack the others?
 
Battening down the hatches a bit. Sold all call options last week and trading shares today.
Plenty of 'dry powder' now for post ERs (SCTY and TM).
Hope I am wrong on my suspicions of the stock direction.
Good luck to all longs..I still will be better off if I am wrong, short term, than right.
Yeah. Another stop-loss event at $226 for what remained of my short-term TSLA position. I was expecting red up through ER but not this much. Now looking for a re-entry point over the next week. Will take it slow.
 
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Based on deliveries numbers, this Earnings Report is probably gonna be pretty ugly. And the market is discounting Elon's guidance so much that positive guidance may or may not move the stock up. Plus some people probably bought in anticipation of Gigafactory party and are now selling the news.
Still, a drop of $8 on the day after yesterday's $5 drop on news that is ostensibly good for TSLA (getting a better deal on SCTY than originally planned) seems a bit crazy. Its not like the earnings being less than rosy hasn't been known for weeks. Making me feel like the earnings news is going to have a hard time dropping things further, but who knows.
 
Didn't someone point out here at TMC that it turned out that interview was recorded in April?
Yes I did. Also on SA I pointed this out to Santos. Our "premium contributor" used no one can listen to all interviews as an excuse (so he knows some random German radio show better than NPR as a premium contributor in US) and did nothing to update that article of his. Tells you something about what "premium" means on SA.
 
Inside EVs estimate for US July delivery numbers are out . 2150 S and 750 X. Not very impressive IMO but the first month in a new quarter has always been relatively slow in the US. What's curious to me is that they also estimated at least half of the S were 60 kWh. I'm wondering how they estimate this? By checking the emblem in the rear? But we also know the 60kWh is only software limited. So what will the emblem say if someone ordered a 75 kWh? Someone ordered a 60 and quickly upgraded it?
 
Inside EVs estimate for US July delivery numbers are out . 2150 S and 750 X. Not very impressive IMO but the first month in a new quarter has always been relatively slow in the US. What's curious to me is that they also estimated at least half of the S were 60 kWh. I'm wondering how they estimate this? By checking the emblem in the rear? But we also know the 60kWh is only software limited. So what will the emblem say if someone ordered a 75 kWh? Someone ordered a 60 and quickly upgraded it?
It will ship from the factory with the badging that was actually paid for. If upgrade happens after that, physical badging will be updated at Service Center but the display will show actual "paid" capacity.

From reading the Model S order thread, it is clear that the MS60 is taking a large market share.
 
Inside EVs estimate for US July delivery numbers are out . 2150 S and 750 X. Not very impressive IMO but the first month in a new quarter has always been relatively slow in the US. What's curious to me is that they also estimated at least half of the S were 60 kWh. I'm wondering how they estimate this? By checking the emblem in the rear? But we also know the 60kWh is only software limited. So what will the emblem say if someone ordered a 75 kWh? Someone ordered a 60 and quickly upgraded it?

Wow, isn't that scary bad?? The running assumption was that they would be producing and selling 1K/week each... Any insights by anyone into this?
 
Inside EVs estimate for US July delivery numbers are out . 2150 S and 750 X. Not very impressive IMO but the first month in a new quarter has always been relatively slow in the US. What's curious to me is that they also estimated at least half of the S were 60 kWh. I'm wondering how they estimate this? By checking the emblem in the rear? But we also know the 60kWh is only software limited. So what will the emblem say if someone ordered a 75 kWh? Someone ordered a 60 and quickly upgraded it?

Seems awfully weak given that at the end of June we know there were 5k cars in transit... and that the run rate of the factory was ~2k/week. I'm gonna go with - 2150 S and 750 X is nowhere near correct for July.

EDIT: On further thought, US deliveries are typically about 50% of worldwide, so 2900 on an 9k factory run for 4.5 weeks is... still low, but not AS insanely low as I initially thought.

It will ship from the factory with the badging that was actually paid for. If upgrade happens after that, physical badging will be updated at Service Center but the display will show actual "paid" capacity.

From reading the Model S order thread, it is clear that the MS60 is taking a large market share.

Is MS60 actually taking market share from what would otherwise be MS75's, though, is the important question. If MS60 is taking market share from BMW and Mercedes (and other marques) that MS75 wouldn't, then that's a good thing. If its gaining market share by cannibalizing too many MS75 sales, then that's a bad thing, because its eating too much margin. Judging by TSLA's choice to introduce an MX60 using the same formula, I'm assuming they have enough evidence from the MS60 experiment to suggest that the lower price brings in more than enough new buyers to offset the loss of margin from buyers who otherwise would have bought a 75.
 
On the CC yesterday, Musk said that he had recused himself from from the exchange ratio setting process. So 0.11 was news to him as it was to us. Also he has stipulated that if a materially better offer come along and disinterested shareholders vote for it, his shares of SolarCity will be sold along with the new deal. So while Musk owns about 29% of SolarCity, he is generally stepping back to let disinterested boardmembers and shareholders speak.

For my part, I think that even a counter offer with a substantial premium to the Tesla offer would be a bad deal for SolarCity. It would mean that SolarCity loses the leadership of Musk and disconnects with the greater vision of Tesla.

So ultimately SolarCity shareholders must decide if they want to be part of Musk's vision or not. Musk is not forcing this on anyone. But I fear the company would be hollowed out if it chose to go a separate way.

The more I think about it, even if there is a really high bid I think Tesla would find some way to match it. I'm thinking for Gigafactory 2 and beyond they want to make cars/batteries/panels/whoknowswhatelse.
 
IMHO - panel is the roof might be Tesla's solution rather than solar shingles etc. No need to stay within existing framework of shingles or tiles or whatever. So some kind of interlocking panel + something to make it continuous with some side frame to accommodate sizing would be great with microinverter attached under the panel with easy access from the attic (as opposed to the current need to climb on the roof) would be great.

Yeah if these things last for 20-30 years I'm thinking they just skip the roof all together and the panel will become the roof.
 
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