Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

There has been a major uptick in sock puppets, trolls, or whatever you want to call them posting on TMC over the past few weeks. Maybe a sign the shorts are desperate? Also, has someone been trying to overload TMC? At significant moments, the website has appeared to be offline.

 

[brian45011]

But today @brian45011 educated me more on this topic and if OpEx really had no D&A in it, I don't know how to explain S+X alone be profitable.

I did not mean to imply there is no D&A in OpEx. Stores, service centers, superchargers and other capitalized assets used in selling, administrative and other non-manufacturing activities all are attracting D&A expense. There may be some even in R&D, ie leasehold improvements at Hawthorne(?)

This is another aspect of what Jason was referring to in the excerpt quoted above. Again, much of SG&A is relatively fixed in the short term. If Tesla can sell more units even at lower GM/unit, those relatively fixed OpEx expenses can be better used and the bottom line improves, just as long as the marginal Gross Profit from those additional units is greater than marginal increase in OpEx.

 

[RobStark]

The factory is not 90% empty. I toured Monday and asked several times. They don't like giving straight answers but they suggested it was nearly full. The model 3 line will be installed in a long narrow strip in the front of the factory currently used for part warehousing. The upstairs is used but sort of underused with things that could be moved like electronics manufacturing.

I think once the m3 line is in it would make more sense to find another factory.

I think as they increase actual production and assembly of vehicles they move things like storage,white collar workers and interior track out of the Fremont factory.

Presumably all the new buildings (like the former Solyndra facility, the former UAW Union Hall) they acquired/leased in or near Fremont is for that purpose.

 

[Papafox]

Weekend Chuckle
(not to be taken as a real story)

Consumer Reports today has petitioned the FAA to require all aircraft manufacturers to rename the electronic device used in modern planes to simplify the task of flying.
"Clearly the word 'autopilot' is confusing and has led a few pilots to put too much trust in the devices," said a Consumer Reports spokesman. "These devices are only safe if carefully monitored by a human and we feel the name 'monitored-flying assistance device' is more appropriate." The FAA is reviewing this proposed change in terminology.

 

[neroden]

I don't know how to explain S+X alone be profitable.

Well, they can't be, at this geographical scale. Tesla has to more-than-double the number of service centers, for example.

However, with Model 3, Tesla is multiplying the number of cars sold by around 5. So that's how they cover the huge overhead.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Weekend Chuckle
(not to be taken as a real story)

Consumer Reports today has petitioned the FAA to require all aircraft manufacturers to rename the electronic device used in modern planes to simplify the task of flying.
"Clearly the word 'autopilot' is confusing and has led a few pilots to put too much trust in the devices," said a Consumer Reports spokesman. "These devices are only safe if carefully monitored by a human and we feel the name 'monitored-flying assistance device' is more appropriate." The FAA is reviewing this proposed change in terminology.

that meme needs to just crawl away.

 

[neroden]

The current share price is supposed to represent a flow of cash discounted over time. If the flow of cash gets pushed out to a later date, the model will generate a lower price. That's just the way the formulas work.

The time discount is miniscule given 0% T-bill rates.

 

[pGo]

I'm surprised nobody is talking about Elon saying in the conference call that he expects no humans to be on the production lines by 2018. That seems like a major advance in production speed and accuracy.

It'll happen eventually when 3.0 factory version is accomplished. Probably 6 years from now.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It'll happen eventually when 3.0 factory version is accomplished. Probably 6 years from now.

I believe he said on the conference call that version 1.0 would have no people on the line. So we're probably not talking about that many years.

 

[Fallenone]

I did not mean to imply there is no D&A in OpEx. Stores, service centers, superchargers and other capitalized assets used in selling, administrative and other non-manufacturing activities all are attracting D&A expense. There may be some even in R&D, ie leasehold improvements at Hawthorne(?)

This is another aspect of what Jason was referring to in the excerpt quoted above. Again, much of SG&A is relatively fixed in the short term. If Tesla can sell more units even at lower GM/unit, those relatively fixed OpEx expenses can be better used and the bottom line improves, just as long as the marginal Gross Profit from those additional units is greater than marginal increase in OpEx.

But the whole GF associated D&A is not in OpEx but in COGS? They don't really use GF to build S/X now...

 

[jhm]

There has been a major uptick in sock puppets, trolls, or whatever you want to call them posting on TMC over the past few weeks. Maybe a sign the shorts are desperate? Also, has someone been trying to overload TMC? At significant moments, the website has appeared to be offline.

Yes, I just adore sock puppet theatre. Shiny new personas, so charming, wise and informed. They're fun and interactive.

 

[austinEV]

Yes, I just adore sock puppet theatre. Shiny new personas, so charming, wise and informed. They're fun and interactive.

And unfailingly concerned for us God bless them.

 

[pGo]

I believe he said on the conference call that version 1.0 would have no people on the line. So we're probably not talking about that many years.

Check the Alien Droneship reference. IMO that is full automation.

 

[yesla]

Spotted a beautiful formation of a pennant yesterday on the 5min chart. with a bullish breakout. the volume seems to support the indicator.

Today's sideway movement may be anticlimatic but I see 2 positives.
1) we closed over 230, if only ever so slightly - resistance became support. this is a strong line to cross
2) we have been green for previous 5 weeks so this week ending slightly red is acceptable. to continue our up leg on this rally next week

 

[brian45011]

But the whole GF associated D&A is not in OpEx but in COGS? They don't really use GF to build S/X now...

TE is in Services and Other (and manufacturing overhead related to TE would be in COGS of Services and Other).

 

[2virgule5]

Design Studio for a new X now indicating "Available Late 2016" while Model S still says September. Good sign on demand front?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Check the Alien Droneship reference. IMO that is full automation.

The alien droneship is likely what's needed for 1 million or more cars produced at Fremont. Version 1.0 and version 2.0 won't quite be there, but they will likely be fully automated.

 

[Odebek]

I believe he said on the conference call that version 1.0 would have no people on the line. So we're probably not talking about that many years.

he said Version 0.5 in 2017 and V1.0 in 2018 and new versions after that every 18-24 mo

 

[Fallenone]

TE is in Services and Other (and manufacturing overhead related to TE would be in COGS of Services and Other).

Wow then the COGS of current Powerwall/Powerpack would be much much higher than $190/kWh I think.

 

[mickificki]

NASDAQ | SEC Filing

Tesla sec filing today's

"Given the size and complexity of this undertaking, the cost of building and operating the Gigafactory could exceed our current expectations and the Gigafactory may take longer to bring online than we anticipate."

Oh boy.