Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[madodel]

as a single data point, (me) the above is more true than you realize. I love the electric of my PHEV Volt, and daily become more and more dissatisfied due to the crippled/lack of range (10.2kWh usable) and crippled charging speed 3.0kw max vs >100kw. (i use 110v exclusively) others agree more or less. PHEV's will be a "flash in the pan"

I agree with you 100%. I never had a PHEV, just a Hybrid. I always felt it was overly complex to have two drive systems, and at least in my Highlander, the car tended to use the engine over the electric motors even when the display said it was in EV. Hybrids of all persuasions are just a bridge to the real deal the full BEV. They are like the DLP Televisions. They served a purpose I guess but I don't think anyone will miss them.

 

[150 kWh]

Guys none of this matters, we're F'd. BMW has an affordable electric sedan and it's available NOW.

Sales of BMW's best selling car, the 3-Series are down almost 23% YTD in North America according to this page
Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America - June 2016 YTD - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

By making these Ads they just admit it's because of the Model 3 (Nissan did the same when sales of Leaf dropped).

 

[RobStark]

umm, its a 'tad bit' higher than $44k unless there are large discounts, more like in the mid $55k+ range
(a link to price list of EV's and PHEV's a few months old)
http://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EVInfoSheet-20160118.pdf

The 330e is not on that page.

A BMW 330e MSRP starts at $44.1k plus $995 destination charge.

Build Your Own

 

[tinm]

This thread has been DORMANT since May!!! NOT A SINGLE POST IN JUNE AND JULY. In my mind, that is evidence that things are MARKEDLY IMPROVED.There is only 1 post in August and it comes as the initial post from a new member. Truly remarkable you were able to spot this single new post in an otherwise forgotten thread so quickly and bring it immediately to our attention. Strong work!!

EDIT: This is not meant to minimize any assertions that Tesla needs to continue to improve. But we should note that things are getting better and credit them for that. Thanks.

Or, it could be simply nobody sees that thread anymore so it went dormant. Many threads around TMC go prematurely dormant ever since TMC migrated to the new "live in the now" forum software the design of which has a bias for highlighting a relatively small number of active threads while essentially concealing an always-growing long tail of old threads. (And the lackluster search doesn't help any.)

 

[Papafox]

In the final 2 1/2 hours of after-hours trading on Friday, TSLA dropped nearly $3, likely due to concerns about the $411 repayment in 3rd quarter. Volume was extremely low, however. Over the weekend I have not seen much emphasis in the press on the need for Tesla to pay this amount. We'll see if the "usual suspects" are just saving this story for Monday morning in order to get maximum effect. My feeling was that TSLA was poised to have a good Monday before this issue, now I'm taking a wait and see posture.

 

[Buddyroe]

This thread has been DORMANT since May!!! NOT A SINGLE POST IN JUNE AND JULY. In my mind, that is evidence that things are MARKEDLY IMPROVED.There is only 1 post in August and it comes as the initial post from a new member. Truly remarkable you were able to spot this single new post in an otherwise forgotten thread so quickly and bring it immediately to our attention. Strong work!!

EDIT: This is not meant to minimize any assertions that Tesla needs to continue to improve. But we should note that things are getting better and credit them for that. Thanks.

You might want to double check the last 2 posts in that thread. Both were from today (before I even linked it.). Not sue how you missed them.

 

[30seconds]

Another shocker from the Germans

Emissions-Cheating Software Found in Volkswagen Group’s 3.0-Liter Diesels: Report - The Truth About Cars
Emissions-Cheating Software Found in Volkswagen Group's 3.0-Liter Diesels: Report

 

[RobStark]

Another shocker from the Germans

Emissions-Cheating Software Found in Volkswagen Group’s 3.0-Liter Diesels: Report - The Truth About Cars
Emissions-Cheating Software Found in Volkswagen Group's 3.0-Liter Diesels: Report

CARB recently rejected a fix for the VW Group 3.0L diesel. This isn't news.

This has the BLUE DEF diesel after treatment equipment so it should be fixable.

What is unknown is the cost in terms of performance and MPG after the software is fixed and approved by CARB.

 

[30seconds]

Looks like VW is also starting to recalling turbo gas engines for high particulate emissions as well.

But hey they have 22 EVs that are about to blow Tesla's out of the water.

 

[sdtslafan]

You might want to double check the last 2 posts in that thread. Both were from today (before I even linked it.). Not sue how you missed them.

Sure, i just double checked.

There are only 2 new posts on the thread, both of which were added today. Before these 2 posts, there were no posts for over 3 months.

The first post added today is from a first time poster. We can't be sure this is even a real customer and not someone short trying to influence sentiment on this board. The second poster is just a response and is not voicing a complaint.

Weak.

 

[Johan]

Guys none of this matters, we're F'd. BMW has an affordable electric sedan and it's available NOW.

Seems like they forgot rule #1 from Ad school:

"Never talk about a competitor".

It makes you come across as intimated, as someone playing catch up trying to down talk the industry leader. They might just have gone ahead and said Tesla Model 3. Boy, are they scared!

 

[MitchJi]

So two things:
I'm more in the camp that hybrid vehicles like this will quickly prove to have a brief moment in the economic sun, and will then disappear, and that BMW is going to regret their R&D down this chain in less than a decade. However, if what they know is gas engines and they see the end coming quickly, I can also see how this looks like a path that avoids a survival crisis for them.

The second - I think these ads and vehicle will ultimately prove to act as Tesla ads, based on the way that owners of other EVs want to switch to a Tesla when they can. Gotta love it when the competition starts advertising for you.

The competitive response I want to see from BMW, is to come up with something that is actually competitive. In quality / performance of each individual car, as well as battery supply to compete on volume. Or Ford, GM, VW, ...

That economic sun sets for Tesla with the GF! When Tesla announced the GF they stated a conservative 30 percent cost savings, not including cell chemistry, by the end of 2017, and a fifty percent cost savings by 2020, when they were planning to produce 35 GWh of cells. Not they will exceed that production, in either 2017 or 2018. So now they've tripled the capacity of the plant and going further upstream with their raw materials, obviously to save money. So I contend that their cost reduction in 2017-2018 is at least 40 percent. Cell chemistry is probably more than five percent. And we know that their current packs cost less than $190 per kWh.

Using $190, which we know is high, and deducting 45 percent (40 + 5) we get $104.50. Check what BMW changes for their gas motor upgrade for their i3. It's clear that they don't have a prayer of producing a competitive 200 mile range BEV.

The main reason that BMW has gone all in on PHEV's is that they can't figure out how to get batteries at a price that are competitive.

 

[elasalle]

From 2Q shareholder letter -- "Despite the disciplined pace of capital spending in the first half of this year, we still expect to invest about $2.25 billion in capital expenditures in 2016, in support of our accelerated production plan for Model 3."

Late Fri I saw this article Tesla Motors discloses $1.1 billion in third-quarter cash needs regarding 1.1B for 3Q - so isn't that in line with what was already mentioned on call? This and some recent articles/comments regard GG spending seem to indicate that Mgmt is disclosing like new costs - that too almost 1 week after shareholder meeting?

 

[winfield100]

The 330e is not on that page.

A BMW 330e MSRP starts at $44.1k plus $995 destination charge.

Build Your Own

you are correct, i am wrong.

 

[MikeC]

Sure, i just double checked.

There are only 2 new posts on the thread, both of which were added today. Before these 2 posts, there were no posts for over 3 months.

The first post added today is from a first time poster. We can't be sure this is even a real customer and not someone short trying to influence sentiment on this board. The second poster is just a response and is not voicing a complaint.

Weak.

Not to mention the complaining post states that the issue he is complaining about was initially caused by the poster hitting a hydrant in a parking lot. I don't think that's pertinent to Model X quality control at the factory.

 

[geneclean55]

In the final 2 1/2 hours of after-hours trading on Friday, TSLA dropped nearly $3, likely due to concerns about the $411 repayment in 3rd quarter. Volume was extremely low, however. Over the weekend I have not seen much emphasis in the press on the need for Tesla to pay this amount. We'll see if the "usual suspects" are just saving this story for Monday morning in order to get maximum effect. My feeling was that TSLA was poised to have a good Monday before this issue, now I'm taking a wait and see posture.

Agreed. Seems to be counter-balanced by quite a few articles on auto-pilot 'saving' guy with a health emergency while driving in Missouri.

 

[sub]

Guys none of this matters, we're F'd. BMW has an affordable electric sedan and it's available NOW.

"Why wait in line for the car everyone wants when you can have the car nobody wants today!"

 

[SunCatcher]

Seems like they forgot rule #1 from Ad school:

"Never talk about a competitor".

It makes you come across as intimated, as someone playing catch up trying to down talk the industry leader. They might just have gone ahead and said Tesla Model 3. Boy, are they scared!

BMW isn't the only one. Porsche is paying for Tesla ads too!

"Porsche is taking on Tesla."
"The entire underbody houses the battery, distributing the weight equally…" Gee, why didn't Tesla think of that???
Porsche is an awesome car company. But they have some catching up to do. And no sign whatsoever how long their wait is.

A lot to pay attention to in the EV world these days. Huge, disruptive paradigm shift of epic proportions underway. I can't wait to see what each new day brings...

Here’s the stunning electric car Porsche is making to take on Tesla

On second look; not actually a Porsche ad, but a Tech Insider story video...

 

[yesla]

That economic sun sets for Tesla with the GF! When Tesla announced the GF they stated a conservative 30 percent cost savings, not including cell chemistry, by the end of 2017, and a fifty percent cost savings by 2020, when they were planning to produce 35 GWh of cells. Not they will exceed that production, in either 2017 or 2018. So now they've tripled the capacity of the plant and going further upstream with their raw materials, obviously to save money. So I contend that their cost reduction in 2017-2018 is at least 40 percent. Cell chemistry is probably more than five percent. And we know that their current packs cost less than $190 per kWh.

Using $190, which we know is high, and deducting 45 percent (40 + 5) we get $104.50. Check what BMW changes for their gas motor upgrade for their i3. It's clear that they don't have a prayer of producing a competitive 200 mile range BEV.

The main reason that BMW has gone all in on PHEV's is that they can't figure out how to get batteries at a price that are competitive.

They could buy batteries from Tesla....

 

[vgrinshpun]

When talking about labor I was talking about the labor cost of installing the TE products, not just building them. There's also the inverter and other supporting hardware that may not make high margins as the battery packs themselves and drags down the overall GM of TE.

Tesla said they will expand stores to 441 by the end of 2017, compared to 215 at the end of March this year (during model 3 reveal). So yeh, 20% growth in stores is a massive underestimate.

Majority of CapEx reflected in cost (as in depreciation) as of now would be in OpEx not in COGS. The dominating part of GF is not contributing to current COGS nor majority of COGS next year (maybe in Q4) because there's no revenue generating activity happening there (except small amount of TE and wiring of the motors). The Fremont factory still got huge space empty. The 500k/year capacity paint shop and close to that capacity pressing machines have only about 80% sitting there idle. So I don't think majority of CapEx would be in COGS this year nor next year. And we also have SC as CapEx not included here.

Cost of installing of the TE products is not included in the $470/kWh list price shown on their website, so whatever it is, it will not have any effect on the GM. The $470/kWh includes only batteries, so the pricing and GM on inverters, does not factor in my calculation as well. The 50% GM on TE that was included in my calculation stands given the published data.

Regarding the stores, there will be no need to have 441 stores until the very end of 2017 when Model 3 will start shipping in quantities and a sizable dent is made in the quantity of reservations on the books (backlog), so expansion of stores in conjunction with Model 3 ramp will have zero effect on Q1, Q2, Q3 and most (if any) of Q4 2017. On top of this expansion in stores does not mean proportional increase of the SG&A. From 215 in March Tesla grew their store presence to 260 now, a 20% increase, with SG&A expenses, as addressed by Jason Wheeler during the ER call, and shown in the shareholder's letter financial summary, staying flat.

Regarding the CapEx, as was addressed before, absolute majority of them are included in COGS, not OpEx, so will not affect the GM.

I do not believe that your concern about Tesla not being non-GAAP profitable in 2017 is valid. Tesla is very likely to bring about $1B of non-GAAP profit in 2017, as shown in my napkin math example.