Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[maoing]

In other words, the sustainable rate appears to be about 1000 MS and 250 MX per week. Maybe the China market will finally blossom.

No way. I saw a Chinese article which quotes about 6000 delivery goal for 2016, it's just mild growth.

 

[maoing]

I am sorry - yes, big typo. 142 per day or just slightly less than 1000/wk.

I am pretty sure he meant 140/day not 140/week.

Thanks. That makes a lot more sense. I too expect model S demand capped around 50K in 2016.

 

[maoing]

What August number? Tesla doesn't release deliveries until 3 days after end of quarter.

I've never seen any guesstimates that have any accuracy for US deliveries month by month.

Until Tesla release official number, all sources including insideevs are guestimate. But it serves pretty well for early warning sign in Q1/Q2. With no Q3 guidance from Tesla (a BIG warning sign), there is no reason to be too optimistic at this point until we see the hard number.

 

[TMSE]

When is AP 2.0 due? Was it supposed to be out by now but got delayed in light of recent autopilot related incidents?

 

[FredTMC]

Until Tesla release official number, all sources including insideevs are guestimate. But it serves pretty well for early warning sign in Q1/Q2. With no Q3 guidance from Tesla (a BIG warning sign), there is no reason to be too optimistic at this point until we see the hard number.

Yep. All just guesstimates.

My view is Q3 certainly gets a boost since 5000+ cars were in transit at end of Q2.

Tesla won't have the "production ramp-related delay" in getting cars on boats this qtr so "in transit" cars shouldn't be stuck on boats at end of Q3

I expect "in transit" cars will be down a few thousand to "2500" at end or Q3
Therefore, net boost to Q3 is 2500

 

[esk8mw]

When is AP 2.0 due? Was it supposed to be out by now but got delayed in light of recent autopilot related incidents?

Best guesses have been before the end of the year. Logic tells me around Sept/Oct in order to have the biggest impact on 2016 sales. I doubt the accident had any effect on anything AP related. The update will just be a future-proofing hardware update most likely, though perhaps there will be a little bit of added functionality right out of the gate. I don't expect a big leap forward in autonomy at this point.

 

[TMSE]

I just noticed that MS delivery to China, if you order now, is November, even for the high end ones. Why so much delay?

I don't think shipping is a bottleneck as most ships going in that direction go empty after unloading all the plastic crap into mainland US from China.

I believe it could mean one of two things:
1) Demand is so low that they don't have enough minimum cars per shipment (PS: this is the case with Australia and NZ). Minimum could be, let's say 50 cars per shipment to be economically viable.
OR
2) Demand is very high. I tend to lean towards this possibility, but ofcouse you know my bias.

One of the VIN tracker commented here that there is an uptick in wait time between confirmation and production start, from about 10-15 days in June to 25-30 days in July. Could it be that a lot more China and Europe bound cars are made now causing this delay?

 

[schonelucht]

...my review of the Model S Delivery and Ordering Spreadsheet shows that...

You failed to account for the known inventory build ranges, you failed to account for the historical overallocation of VINs and you failed to check the same trend for slightly different periods to see if you were not accidentally measuring an outlier (you did). Plus you switched to 'production weeks' which makes no sense because we are evaluating demand, not production. The relevant metric for demand is expressed in calender time. Orders don't stop magically the weeks that factory is on holiday. If you did all that, you'd find that the numbers once again revert to slightly lower than 1000/week as Model S order rate upper bound.

So based on the above meeting yearly delivery guidance is mainly an issue of the production and delivery, NOT demand.

I am totally not following that reasoning. Production was an issue in April but seems to be ticking along quite nicely.

 

[MitchJi]

Me: Well, let me make this clear. I don't want to give any aid or comfort to anyone shorting Tesla stock. I want them to suffer and hurt as much as possible. I want to watch them squirm when the mother of all short squeezes hits them by surprise. So, you will not be profiting by making any of *my* Tesla shares available for shorting, that's for sure. Are we clear?

If you really want to hurt shorts what better way than using their money to accumulate more shares, and then pulling the plug during a squeeze? You're turning down virtually risk free income and accomplishing nothing. Unless your name is Elon loaning out your shares has less impact on the SP than a mosquito biting an elephant.

Best guesses have been before the end of the year. Logic tells me around Sept/Oct in order to have the biggest impact on 2016 sales. I doubt the accident had any effect on anything AP related. The update will just be a future-proofing hardware update most likely, though perhaps there will be a little bit of added functionality right out of the gate. I don't expect a big leap forward in autonomy at this point.

Unless the mind blowing enhancements that Elon said are comings faster than we think are closer than you think.

 

[RobStark]

This has worked before, because customers have been believers and bleeding edge early adopters. I'm not sure if it works with Model 3.

The 100k plus people that put down ~$1000 reservations before seeing the Model 3 prototype are very much believers and bleeding edge early adopters that can't afford a $70k car.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Nice recovery so far.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You failed to account for the known inventory build ranges, you failed to account for the historical overallocation of VINs and you failed to check the same trend for slightly different periods to see if you were not accidentally measuring an outlier (you did). Plus you switched to 'production weeks' which makes no sense because we are evaluating demand, not production. The relevant metric for demand is expressed in calender time. Orders don't stop magically the weeks that factory is on holiday. If you did all that, you'd find that the numbers once again revert to slightly lower than 1000/week as Model S order rate upper bound.



I am totally not following that reasoning. Production was an issue in April but seems to be ticking along quite nicely.

Let's not count failures, just of yet. I showed exactly how I got my number, why don't you show how you arrived at your conclusion? I promise that even if I find something I do not agree with, I will not call it a failure.

 

[schonelucht]

I just noticed that MS delivery to China, if you order now, is November, even for the high end ones. Why so much delay?

It's probably just planned that way : around this time in the quarter is often peak waiting time for China. November is about 13 weeks out from now. Middle of Q2 the wait time was end of August (15 weeks), middle Q1 we had, depending on model, end of May/June (15/16 weeks), 15Q4 it was next February (14 weeks).

 

[davecolene0606]

I should point out that we can assume that anyone recalling their stock for the vote will make it available to lend again *the day after the vote*. This should cause borrowing rates for shorts to drop quite suddenly as a large amount of stock is put back on the lending market, and that will probably cause a lot of shorts to open new short positions. So I think we are likely to see a post-vote drop in the stock price.

I'm just riding it all out; to a long-term investor it's mostly noise.

Yeh, doing the same, but it sure fun to watch em sweat even if it's only for 24 hours

 

[esk8mw]

If you really want to hurt shorts what better way than using their money to accumulate more shares, and then pulling the plug during a squeeze? You're turning down virtually risk free income and accomplishing nothing. Unless your name is Elon loaning out your shares has less impact on the SP than a mosquito biting an elephant.


Unless the mind blowing enhancements that Elon said are comings faster than we think are closer than you think.

I certainly hope the mind-blowing stuff comes sooner rather than later! I'm wondering what exactly the next steps are for AP - as in, what can be enhanced right now, before moving up a level in autonomy (which will require regulator input, etc.)?

- 8.0 is supposed to have cross-traffic monitoring and off-ramp capabilities
- red light and stop sign capabilities?
- enhanced summon, e.g., ability to exit garage, turn, etc. and meet you in the driveway as Elon suggested?
- ability to "learn" a sequence, e.g., parking a certain way in a garage

What else can be done prior to full autonomy?

 

[TMSE]

It's probably just planned that way : around this time in the quarter is often peak waiting time for China. November is about 13 weeks out from now. Middle of Q2 the wait time was end of August (15 weeks), middle Q1 we had, depending on model, end of May/June (15/16 weeks), 15Q4 it was next February (14 weeks).

Now that production rate has increased, the historical wait times you quoted don't have much relevance. It takes only about 2 weeks for the sea transit from US west coast to China, and add 2 more weeks for customs and other delay. I am leaning towards higher order and delivery rate for China.

Moreover, this disproves the theory that Tesla is making cars just to sell as inventory in stores. They have enough order flow to fill in production.

The inventory sale that you see now are comprised of showroom display, test drive, and some for whom loan approval didn't go through.

 

[2virgule5]

AP 2.0 maybe not that far...
Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production
Rumors of an upgrade path as well for current AP v1.

 

[Papafox]

The point is that at the time people weren't aware or ignored the depth of the issues...because this was going to be different this time! It is a game changer!
You don't understand tech or the Internet or the change in society!

Drivin, when you offered this list of failed companies along with Bernie Madorf's name, you were playing the game of denotation vs. connotation. Let me give you an example. Suppose I was in high school and to illustrate my opinion of one of my female classmates, I compared her to the three most notorious prostitutes in the community. There may actually be a tiny thread of logic in what I say about her (denotation), but my comparing her to the prostitutes unfairly blemishes her reputation (connotation). Quite simply, to illustrate your point, you chose the worst possible examples, examples which focused on companies with a lack of demand for their products, companies that could not execute with a reasonable gross margin, or an individual who set out from square one to achieve personal enrichment through a clearly fraudulent business model. None of these examples compare with Tesla in any reasonable fashion. Your only defense is that investors believed in these companies at one time. This is about as weak an argument as I have ever heard, and it is a waste of our time.

Members of this forum are open to positive and negative comments about where TSLA is heading, but we expect reasonable arguments or hard data to support a point one is making. In the future, if you wish to make a negative comment about TSLA, please offer a reasonably-strong argument or pertinent data to support your position.

 

[schonelucht]

Let's not count failures, just of yet. I showed exactly how I got my number, why don't you show how you arrived at your conclusion? I promise that even if I find something I do not agree with, I will not call it a failure.

Sure. there are 12 weeks and 6 days in the quarter. So 13 is the calendar week divider. Then we have the historical VIN overallocation : at the end of last quarter, VIN sequence was up to 150 000, while total production was 136 000. VIN assignments were tracking production start with 2-3 weeks so let's be generous and add 4000 cars in production (queue) gets a historical over allocation of (136 000+4000)/150 000 = 6%. Finally The inventory ranges : the best is to just go to ev-cpo.com inventory and sort by VIN it is pretty obvious where the ranges are. Don't forget to do Europe to! Take a mental note that we don't have the same visibility for almost a 1/3 of Tesla markets, I'll come back to that! Anyway let's be conservative and just say 300. Now we do the math (super conservative) 13 900 - 5% (overallocation) - 300 (inventory) = 12905 or just slightly less than 1000 over 13 weeks.

Finally, we check if our sample period (13900/Q2) is consistent with the trend line. So we check if we find comparable VIN intervals for 3 months when we move the window a little. April 15th to July 15th is 13683 (138917/fballatore to 1526xx/chjag), May 1st to Aug 2nd is 13200 (1418xx/ktm to 1550xx/stumpy), May 11th to Aug 11th is 12900 (1431xx to 155xxx/permesso)

Hey that's weird. The more recent we take our 3 month period, the smaller the VIN range is? How can that be, we should expect growth over time! Especially with the successful 60kWh model! Maybe there is something going on with April? And yes, there was something going on : that was the month they built a whole lot of inventory (see the VIN ranges on ev-cpo). Could it possibly be that they produced even more inventory than we already accounted for? Maybe for those countries I had you make that mental note on before? Or maybe even, for US inventory that is available but not on the website and therefore not counted? (Accumulated inventory BTW is over 4000 Model S, so yes what we see on the website is only a small sliver)

Anyway. Please do shoot holes where you see them!

 

[electracity]

This time the beta testers are employees.

Even rocket scientist, which is hopefully overkill for the inevitable problems.