In other words, the sustainable rate appears to be about 1000 MS and 250 MX per week. Maybe the China market will finally blossom.
No way. I saw a Chinese article which quotes about 6000 delivery goal for 2016, it's just mild growth.
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In other words, the sustainable rate appears to be about 1000 MS and 250 MX per week. Maybe the China market will finally blossom.
I am sorry - yes, big typo. 142 per day or just slightly less than 1000/wk.
I am pretty sure he meant 140/day not 140/week.
What August number? Tesla doesn't release deliveries until 3 days after end of quarter.
I've never seen any guesstimates that have any accuracy for US deliveries month by month.
Until Tesla release official number, all sources including insideevs are guestimate. But it serves pretty well for early warning sign in Q1/Q2. With no Q3 guidance from Tesla (a BIG warning sign), there is no reason to be too optimistic at this point until we see the hard number.
Best guesses have been before the end of the year. Logic tells me around Sept/Oct in order to have the biggest impact on 2016 sales. I doubt the accident had any effect on anything AP related. The update will just be a future-proofing hardware update most likely, though perhaps there will be a little bit of added functionality right out of the gate. I don't expect a big leap forward in autonomy at this point.When is AP 2.0 due? Was it supposed to be out by now but got delayed in light of recent autopilot related incidents?
...my review of the Model S Delivery and Ordering Spreadsheet shows that...
So based on the above meeting yearly delivery guidance is mainly an issue of the production and delivery, NOT demand.
If you really want to hurt shorts what better way than using their money to accumulate more shares, and then pulling the plug during a squeeze? You're turning down virtually risk free income and accomplishing nothing. Unless your name is Elon loaning out your shares has less impact on the SP than a mosquito biting an elephant.Me: Well, let me make this clear. I don't want to give any aid or comfort to anyone shorting Tesla stock. I want them to suffer and hurt as much as possible. I want to watch them squirm when the mother of all short squeezes hits them by surprise. So, you will not be profiting by making any of *my* Tesla shares available for shorting, that's for sure. Are we clear?
Unless the mind blowing enhancements that Elon said are comings faster than we think are closer than you think.Best guesses have been before the end of the year. Logic tells me around Sept/Oct in order to have the biggest impact on 2016 sales. I doubt the accident had any effect on anything AP related. The update will just be a future-proofing hardware update most likely, though perhaps there will be a little bit of added functionality right out of the gate. I don't expect a big leap forward in autonomy at this point.
This has worked before, because customers have been believers and bleeding edge early adopters. I'm not sure if it works with Model 3.
You failed to account for the known inventory build ranges, you failed to account for the historical overallocation of VINs and you failed to check the same trend for slightly different periods to see if you were not accidentally measuring an outlier (you did). Plus you switched to 'production weeks' which makes no sense because we are evaluating demand, not production. The relevant metric for demand is expressed in calender time. Orders don't stop magically the weeks that factory is on holiday. If you did all that, you'd find that the numbers once again revert to slightly lower than 1000/week as Model S order rate upper bound.
I am totally not following that reasoning. Production was an issue in April but seems to be ticking along quite nicely.
I just noticed that MS delivery to China, if you order now, is November, even for the high end ones. Why so much delay?
Yeh, doing the same, but it sure fun to watch em sweat even if it's only for 24 hoursI should point out that we can assume that anyone recalling their stock for the vote will make it available to lend again *the day after the vote*. This should cause borrowing rates for shorts to drop quite suddenly as a large amount of stock is put back on the lending market, and that will probably cause a lot of shorts to open new short positions. So I think we are likely to see a post-vote drop in the stock price.
I'm just riding it all out; to a long-term investor it's mostly noise.
I certainly hope the mind-blowing stuff comes sooner rather than later! I'm wondering what exactly the next steps are for AP - as in, what can be enhanced right now, before moving up a level in autonomy (which will require regulator input, etc.)?If you really want to hurt shorts what better way than using their money to accumulate more shares, and then pulling the plug during a squeeze? You're turning down virtually risk free income and accomplishing nothing. Unless your name is Elon loaning out your shares has less impact on the SP than a mosquito biting an elephant.
Unless the mind blowing enhancements that Elon said are comings faster than we think are closer than you think.
Now that production rate has increased, the historical wait times you quoted don't have much relevance. It takes only about 2 weeks for the sea transit from US west coast to China, and add 2 more weeks for customs and other delay. I am leaning towards higher order and delivery rate for China.It's probably just planned that way : around this time in the quarter is often peak waiting time for China. November is about 13 weeks out from now. Middle of Q2 the wait time was end of August (15 weeks), middle Q1 we had, depending on model, end of May/June (15/16 weeks), 15Q4 it was next February (14 weeks).
The point is that at the time people weren't aware or ignored the depth of the issues...because this was going to be different this time! It is a game changer!
You don't understand tech or the Internet or the change in society!
Let's not count failures, just of yet. I showed exactly how I got my number, why don't you show how you arrived at your conclusion? I promise that even if I find something I do not agree with, I will not call it a failure.
This time the beta testers are employees.