Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MartinAustin]

The great frontier for Tesla is "extended periods of full throttle." That's about the only thing that competitors like Porsche or Mercedes may have to be able to boast about - that is, if they are able to boast about it. (the battery in the Mercedes AMG GT Electric Drive was mostly spent after one spirited lap around the Nurburgring). I think I read that Porsche has said their Mission E can be driven at full throttle for extended periods. (I don't have a link to back that up)

Each new battery size, like the 100kWh car, brings the dream of that closer.

Thing is, I think Tesla don't care about that. They are trying to replace all cars on the road - and 99% of those don't get raced. They can leave the racing 1% to the other manufacturers that promise to bring you track-worthy cars for the road, and concentrate on the other 99% with cars that have big cargo+passenger capacity and aren't heavy on motor/battery cooling.

The simplest result is that the Model S is the same Model S it always was - i.e., not meant for the racetrack - and the battery is just bigger.

This news has had no bearing on TSLA today. Perhaps it is already priced in anyway. Perhaps the 100kWh aspect is already priced in, but improvements to Autopilot are not.

 

[2virgule5]

The next Roadster may become the answer for extended period at full throttle. Agree that model S won't come there because it doesn't need to.

 

[jhm]

For the 20th time: demand is not static. There are many levers that can be pulled if demand gets soft. Anyone see Elon in a gorilla outfit on late-night TV commercial yet?

Nope, but Cal Worthington is ready to make a deal. (RIP)

 

[dakh]

Thing is, I think Tesla don't care about that. They are trying to replace all cars on the road - and 99% of those don't get raced. They can leave the racing 1% to the other manufacturers that promise to bring you track-worthy cars for the road, and concentrate on the other 99% with cars that have big cargo+passenger capacity and aren't heavy on motor/battery cooling.

The simplest result is that the Model S is the same Model S it always was - i.e., not meant for the racetrack - and the battery is just bigger.

To go racing there has to be a sanctioned race. There isn't a sanctioned electric car race with enough media coverage for anyone serious to bother building a car for. If there was one, maybe Tesla would build something.

 

[postpast]

To go racing there has to be a sanctioned race. There isn't a sanctioned electric car race with enough media coverage for anyone serious to bother building a car for. If there was one, maybe Tesla would build something.

Doing track days in your car is a thing and auto media does put track performance as a benchmark. It has gotten a little silly, as a V6 Camaro has track capability above the skill of the vast majority of performance car buyers. A V6 Camaro or Model S is also going to be very much breaking the law before they get near any handling limit on the street.

I see no reason Tesla would want to compete in that arena, and EM's putting off the roadster says that Tesla has no interest as well.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

To go racing there has to be a sanctioned race. There isn't a sanctioned electric car race with enough media coverage for anyone serious to bother building a car for. If there was one, maybe Tesla would build something.

Racing is much smaller use case than performance driving events. For example, lots of Porsche customers track their car (not race), and for GT series cars (GT3, GT4), probably around 50%

Racetrack use is probably last frontier to be conquered by electric vehicles, but from pragmatic point of view it doesn't matter - it's still a small niche.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Where would the extra weight come from? Do you have solid data that increased capacity comes with increased weight? For all I know, say increasing silicon content would be about neutral for cell weight.

Often, increased energy density increases weight. You won't just be replacing carbon with silicon, a more efficient anode means you can have a smaller anode, and then you have room for a bigger cathode. I belive the cathode is denser than the anode, and the result is increased weight.

But we don't know for sure. The cathode might also be improved, leaving the cell weight unchanged.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tesla currently adding more than one new store each week to satisfy increasing demand around the globe, 100kWh batteries for Model S and X will attract additional ICE buyers that have been waiting on the fence.

 

[mrdoubleb]

The great frontier for Tesla is "extended periods of full throttle." That's about the only thing that competitors like Porsche or Mercedes may have to be able to boast about - that is, if they are able to boast about it. (the battery in the Mercedes AMG GT Electric Drive was mostly spent after one spirited lap around the Nurburgring). I think I read that Porsche has said their Mission E can be driven at full throttle for extended periods. (I don't have a link to back that up).

That's ok, they don't have the car to back that up.

 

[RobStark]

Doing track days in your car is a thing and auto media does put track performance as a benchmark. It has gotten a little silly, as a V6 Camaro has track capability above the skill of the vast majority of performance car buyers. A V6 Camaro or Model S is also going to be very much breaking the law before they get near any handling limit on the street.

I see no reason Tesla would want to compete in that arena, and EM's putting off the roadster says that Tesla has no interest as well.

For the same reason Tesla is interested in beating Ferrari and Porsche in the 1/4 mile.

It excites buyers, garners free press, and converts petrol heads.

The value of that free press is likely multiples of the cost of the program.

Plus you get the sales.

That Tesla has put Roadster 2.0 sales on the back burner does not mean they put Performance versions of the S,3,X on the back burner. The marginal cost to produce are very low and margins are extremely high.

Add track performance to 1/4 mile acceleration and it opens a new group of well healed buyers.

 

[dakh]

Racing is much smaller use case than performance driving events. For example, lots of Porsche customers track their car (not race), and for GT series cars (GT3, GT4), probably around 50%

Racetrack use is probably last frontier to be conquered by electric vehicles, but from pragmatic point of view it doesn't matter - it's still a small niche.

I was talking about pro, world level racing that would be good for advertising. Amateur level stuff, like you said doesn't even begin to register on the radar of "creating sustainable future". I race various forms of motored two wheels as a hobby and I'd say recreational off-road stuff uses much more fuel than amateur cars, just because there's so much more of it. Not sure where boats would stack up.

 

[dakh]

Doing track days in your car is a thing and auto media does put track performance as a benchmark. It has gotten a little silly, as a V6 Camaro has track capability above the skill of the vast majority of performance car buyers. A V6 Camaro or Model S is also going to be very much breaking the law before they get near any handling limit on the street.

I see no reason Tesla would want to compete in that arena, and EM's putting off the roadster says that Tesla has no interest as well.

For a performance cars yes that's relevant. Most people like to know the stuff they got doesn't just look fast but can go fast too. But there's no new Roadster so "go fast" from a stop light seems good enough for S and X.

 

[DrJohnM]

To go racing there has to be a sanctioned race. There isn't a sanctioned electric car race with enough media coverage for anyone serious to bother building a car for. If there was one, maybe Tesla would build something.

There is of course, Formula E

 

[Matias]

To go racing there has to be a sanctioned race. There isn't a sanctioned electric car race with enough media coverage for anyone serious to bother building a car for. If there was one, maybe Tesla would build something.

Nurburgring lap time is commonly used performance metric. With Tesla, problem is, that you can't make full lap with full power.

List of Nürburgring Nordschleife lap times - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Matias]

Tesla Time 8:50. Limiter kicks in at approximately 1:22 mark.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Tesla Time 8:50

The next headline "TESLA CRASHES AT NUREMBURG. AUTOPILOT TO BLAME" LOL!!

 

[Gerardf]

maybe some good news for Tesla / TSLA ?

APNewsBreak: California May Beef up Electric Vehicle Mandate

 

[larmor]

Nurburgring lap time is commonly used performance metric. With Tesla, problem is, that you can't make full lap with full power.

List of Nürburgring Nordschleife lap times - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Maybe tesla can make a special Nurburgring edition, its really only about cost.... just sayin'

 

[FredTMC]

maybe some good news for Tesla / TSLA ?

APNewsBreak: California May Beef up Electric Vehicle Mandate

Hopefully CARB and ZEV credits get back on track. Elon is super pissed at CARB. Apparently the auto lobby was able to get the rules watered down.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Tesla will be very well received in China, and will probably receive billions in various types of investments from China.

Panasonic will team up with Beijing Automotive to manufacture electric vehicle parts in China | The Japan Times