Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Mario Kadastik]

With regard to the big institutions accumulating shares in Q2 I think they probably loaded up during the drop to 140 and recovery. The announcement about SCTY acquisition came very late in the quarter (June 21st, i.e. 9 days before end of Q2) so highly doubt that they'd have reacted to the news and started accumulating shares for covering shorters shares for voting. So those numbers were a pure acquisition of shares because they saw an opportunity.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The dip to 140 actually happened in Q1 (February). The lowest Q2 SP was $187.87 (06/27)

Somebody also had to buy 6,519,656 shares during the secondary in May (closed on 26th)...

 

[Matias]

I'd like to see a Ring run in a P90DL with Ludicrous mode. I think the results would shock everyone, from my experience.

I would also like to see that.

 

[Matias]

I've tracked both my old P85 and newer P85D. The D suffers significantly less heat throttling than the old single motor variant, and it kicks in much later when it does eventually hit. The D is actually a perfectly capable track car, even with the throttling. My previous track car was a chipped, supercharged Audi S4. I can pull down the same or better lap times with the P85D.

I'd like to see a Ring run in a P90DL with Ludicrous mode. I think the results would shock everyone, from my experience.

Based on your experience, which of these cars best represents your P85D?

List of Nürburgring Nordschleife lap times - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Robertj]

Next Events to possibly effect share price, not necessarily in this order

Earnings
1 3rd quarter delivery numbers approx 3rd October
2. 3rd quarter earnings release. Approx 5th November

Product Releases
1 Next generation Powerwall & Inverter Approx late Sept to allow for massive Nov , Dec sales
2 Model S P100 ? Approx December on production of 21650 cells
3 Model 3 2nd stage detailed release Approx late November
4 Autopilot v2 with further hardware installed Approx mid November

Solar city / Tesla Vote Approx mid November

1 Share recall by institutions Approx late October / Early November

Donald Trump elected

Scratch the last line !!

 

[Yggdrasill]

Next Events to possibly effect share price, not necessarily in this order

Earnings
1 3rd quarter delivery numbers approx 3rd October
2. 3rd quarter earnings release. Approx 5th November

Product Releases
1 Next generation Powerwall & Inverter Approx late Sept to allow for massive Nov , Dec sales
2 Model S P100 ? Approx December on production of 21650 cells
3 Model 3 2nd stage detailed release Approx late November
4 Autopilot v2 with further hardware installed Approx mid November

Solar city / Tesla Vote Approx mid November

1 Share recall by institutions Approx late October / Early November

Donald Trump elected

Scratch the last line !!

I think the product releases are probably more like this:

1. September: 18650-based 100 kWh Model S and X packs
2. September: Autopilot v 2.0 for Model S and X
3. November: Next gen 21-70-based Powerwall and Powerpack. Possibly 20-30% increased capacity. Possibly inverter.
4. December: Model 3 reveal part two.
5. February: 21-70-based 110 or 120 kWh packs for Model S and Model X.

 

[schonelucht]

Hopefully CARB and ZEV credits get back on track. Elon is super pissed at CARB. Apparently the auto lobby was able to get the rules watered down.

Not sure he is in a position to complain much after the compliance battery swap station.

 

[electracity]

I think the product releases are probably more like this:

1. September: 18650-based 100 kWh Model S and X packs
2. September: Autopilot v 2.0 for Model S and X
3. November: Next gen 21-70-based Powerwall and Powerpack. Possibly 20-30% increased capacity. Possibly inverter.
4. December: Model 3 reveal part two.
5. February: 21-70-based 110 or 120 kWh packs for Model S and Model X.

I wonder with the Powerwall refresh if they will increase the capacity, or decrease the price. Tesla's desire would be to sell premium solar with a battery. The barrier to doing that in the U.S. is entry level price.

 

[JRP3]

Not sure he is in a position to complain much after the compliance battery swap station.

As compared to the compliance hydrogen stations?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I wonder with the Powerwall refresh if they will increase the capacity, or decrease the price. Tesla's desire would be to sell premium solar with a battery. The barrier to doing that in the U.S. is entry level price.

Yeah, I'm not sure either. But I *suspect* Tesla will increase the capacity. The most important product is the powerpacks, and I think customers would rather get twenty 120 kWh Powerpacks rather than twentyfour 100 kWh Powerpacks, for the same price. Better energy density also means you can more easily install them in existing substations and the like, where space is an issue.

Of course, Tesla *could* reduce the size of the Tesla Energy pods, still have 6.4 kWh per pod and then redesign the Powerpack to fit 20 pods, rather than 16 pods. I'm not sure what would be most cost-effective.

Also, as you say, price is an issue, but I would argue that price *per kWh* is more important than the base cost for a Powerwall. Most prospective buyers will have the need to move more than 6.4 kWh from solar peak to evening/night, and will be calculating how long it will take to break even with the batteries. A 7.7 kWh pack will break even sooner, getting more people to hop down from the fence.

 

[FredTMC]

When is the SCTY acquisition shareholder vote likely to happen?

My understanding is "go shop" 45-day window ends Sep 15th...

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Based on your experience, which of these cars best represents your P85D?

List of Nürburgring Nordschleife lap times - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

First generation Audi R8 or Nissan GTR, both of which have their own thermal throttling issues (this problem is not unique to the Model S). So, low 8 minutes.

I'd be willing to bet a P90DL in the hands of a skilled driver could crack into the 7's.

 

[Nate the Great]

I wonder with the Powerwall refresh if they will increase the capacity, or decrease the price. Tesla's desire would be to sell premium solar with a battery. The barrier to doing that in the U.S. is entry level price.

The initial announcement for the merger was leaked June 22/23 (Motley Fool) On June 24 MA volume peaked the volume has continued to steadily drop off as we get closer to the vote. I think that this trend will continue until the merger. The low volume could have an dragging affect on other catalysts.

 

[MitchJi]

When is the SCTY acquisition shareholder vote likely to happen?

My understanding is "go shop" 45-day window ends Sep 15th...

But the SEC approval takes two to four months,,which means that for purposes of the vote the go shop date is irrelevant.

 

[geneclean55]

I think the product releases are probably more like this:

1. September: 18650-based 100 kWh Model S and X packs
2. September: Autopilot v 2.0 for Model S and X
3. November: Next gen 21-70-based Powerwall and Powerpack. Possibly 20-30% increased capacity. Possibly inverter.
4. December: Model 3 reveal part two.
5. February: 21-70-based 110 or 120 kWh packs for Model S and Model X.

There are multiple articles on this in the media now.
The last time this happened to Tesla, 75kWh battery discovered on CARB website, Tesla updated design studio within a week.

 

[MitchJi]

I think the product releases are probably more like this:

5. February: 21-70-based 110 or 120 kWh packs for Model S and Model X.

February 2018 or 2019?

 

[DriverOne]

Next gen 21-70-based Powerwall and Powerpack. Possibly 20-30% increased capacity.

What do you base that significant a jump on?

 

[ggr]

Eliminating regen will remove associated heat from both the motor and the battery. I agree that motor is most likely rotor heat limited. The issue is probably that there is no clutch, and friction braking does not allow for free rotation of the motor rotor, limiting the effectiveness of the cooling during the friction braking. Having said this, friction braking most definitely helps with removing the heat generated during the recuperation of the kinetic energy into the energy dumped back into the battery, accomplished by the motor operating as a generator.

I don't understand your statement here. But I do believe that most of the heat in the rotor is caused by resistance to the induced current in the copper coils. This current and resistance is directly proportional to the power being inserted or extracted from the motor, in either direction. I don't get your point about the lack of clutch, because at X mph the rotor is spinning at Y rpm, whether you're accelerating, regen braking, or coasting. Any heat being generated due to the actual rotation is happening in the bearings, not in the rotor itself. And those are REALLY GOOD bearings... and they are actively cooled.

My point being, if you turn off regenerative braking, you should actually generate less heat in the rotor as well as the battery, at the cost of reduced range (who cares?) and extra wear and heat in the disk brakes.

 

[Yggdrasill]

There are multiple articles on this in the media now.
The last time this happened to Tesla, 75kWh battery discovered on CARB website, Tesla updated design studio within a week.

There's definitely a limit on how long they can wait, before making an announcement. But I think they will want to wait as long as possible, until the new features are actually ready, to avoid people refusing delivery and putting off ordering. As long as it's relatively unknown that the 100 kWh pack is coming, they can wait. Most buyers aren't reading every article on Tesla or are active on these forums. I'm thinking they can't wait much beyond early September.

 

[Yggdrasill]

February 2018 or 2019?

I'm thinking something like February 2018. The Sections B and C of the Gigafactory will produce NMC cells for Tesla Energy, but once the new sections at the south of the Gigafactory starts churning out cells, we'll be talking NCA vehicle cells. I'm thinking these sections should be ready sometime around February. And the Model 3 won't be needing significant cell output before July/August. So the logical move is to put these cells to use in the Model S/X.