Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[150 kWh]

I am barred from swearing....I hate sideways action.

There is high open interest on weekly options. If volume won't pick up significantly SP will finish this week around 227.5 (max pain).

 

[aznt1217]

If you guys need a laugh

Tesla bulls not 'doing their homework.' 40 rivals on the way: Tesla bear

 

[austinEV]

If you guys need a laugh

Tesla bulls not 'doing their homework.' 40 rivals on the way: Tesla bear

The comment section just ruined my day. So much HATRED. I really don't understand it.

 

[FredTMC]

Anyone think 100D battery announcement comes soon? Like this week...

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm thinking no. But it's extremely hard to say. (By design, as they don't want to Osbourne their current sales.)

 

[Chickenlittle]

The comment section just ruined my day. So much HATRED. I really don't understand it.

how many rivals have been brought to market? audi announcements an example. do not even see bolt yet although they have 3 more months to get to market. where will tesla be by 2020? for sure above the soon anticipated 100D models with model 3 well established even if delayed.

 

[MitchJi]

Mostly J18 180's. I like that price point since the premium is pretty modest. Why wouldn't I keep my *calls* if the stock goes up? What I was saying is that the J18 have some inherent risk that the big move would come in 2018, so at some point I would look to push those to 2019 and probably pay a higher premium. But if they are in the money between now and then I got lucky and the valuation moved early so I am fat and happy. I can keep them, in sell them for a profit or try to roll them forward to a higher strike if I want to get more aggressive. I guess I don't understand your question.

Thanks!

I didn't understand why you'd want to keep them. Seems very risky to me. Even riskier than buying them and the first place.

My thinking is that any surge between now and the M3 production ramp being successful could be temporary. I believe it will be successful but if Tesla is late by a few months due to some minor hiccups that would push the SP down.

So my plan has been to hope for a bump to something like $250 (or more) between now and February or March so I can roll my J18's to J19's. If the bump comes before I can affordably buy J19's I'll probably sell and buy some Mar17's to protect the upside.

I've got mostly J18 $280's that are slightly red now.

 

[Chickenlittle]

how many rivals have been brought to market? audi announcements an example. do not even see bolt yet although they have 3 more months to get to market. where will tesla be by 2020? for sure above the soon anticipated 100D models with model 3 well established even if delayed.

go to chevrolet.com site and try to order or reserve 2017 bolt....only pictures. 2017 volt has been out for over 5 months and you could have ordered one 6 months prior to that. there are only 4.5 months to go. no pricing and no reservation list. no list of options available. no show room cars. i would bet that they do not meet availability in 2016 goal

 

[bonaire]

go to chevrolet.com site and try to order or reserve 2017 bolt....only pictures. 2017 volt has been out for over 5 months and you could have ordered one 6 months prior to that. there are only 4.5 months to go. no pricing and no reservation list. no list of options available. no show room cars. i would bet that they do not meet availability in 2016 goal

GM takes orders from Chevy dealers.
Chevrolet Bolt EV Demand Shown With 33 Pre-Orders At One Dealer
(make that 93) - story from Feb 2016.

Dealers in areas of "EV-friendliness" such as California, Quebec, Oregon, etc - all should be doing this in order to spur EV interest.

 

[Crowded Mind]

This will be interesting as Ford Executive in SV to discuss AP: Investor Events and Webcasts | Ford.com

Agreed, sounds interesting. For the lazy people, press release quoted below.

Aug. 16, 2016 – Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) will host a conference call for the investment community today, Aug. 16 at 4 p.m. EDT from the Ford Research and Innovation Center Palo Alto.

The call follows a live 2 p.m. EDT announcement that can be viewed by the news media, investment community and others via webcast at: Ford Motor Company.

During the 4 p.m. EDT investment community call, Raj Nair, Ford executive vice president of Global Product Development and chief technical officer, and Ken Washington, Ford vice president of Research and Advanced Engineering, will discuss Ford Motor Company’s expanding presence in Silicon Valley and autonomous vehicle development program. Representatives of the investment community will have the opportunity to ask questions following remarks by Nair and Washington.

So they have some sort of announcement today at 2 EDT.

 

[austinEV]

Thanks!

I didn't understand why you'd want to keep them. Seems very risky to me. Even riskier than buying them and the first place.

My thinking is that any surge between now and the M3 production ramp being successful could be temporary. I believe it will be successful but if Tesla is late by a few months due to some minor hiccups that would push the SP down.

So my plan has been to hope for a bump to something like $250 (or more) between now and February or March so I can roll my J18's to J19's. If the bump comes before I can affordably buy J19's I'll probably sell and buy some Mar17's to protect the upside.

I've got mostly J18 $280's that are slightly red now.

Oh I get it. You believe in a "spike" of some duration, possibly due to a short squeeze. So your thesis is different from mine. I think the stock will go up and stay there, and there probably won't be any sort of temporary squeeze. But, if it happened I suppose it might be apparent and yes I would lighten my call exposure. But if I was a fervent believer in the merger related short squeeze thesis I would be holding shorter term calls for higher leverage.

I don't think voting will force a squeeze. The simplest thing that will happen is that shareholders that exist simply vote their shares and that is a small plurality and the move passes. Since share holders are overwhelmingly positive about Elon's guidance it will pass easily (remember "shorts" can't vote and it makes no sense for enemies of the company to buy shares to vote against it).

I think there is a modest chance that we see some upside due to a potential Q3 beat, but even that might be muted. By the same logic that bad model S/X news doesn't bury the stock anymore, modest good news might not move it to the upside anymore either. If the market is now valuing the company based on model 3 potential that delivering a few extra in Q3 to give a good result or surprise *shouldn't* cause a big move up. But if it does then yes I would call that a short term short squeeze and look for a top.

But I think TM might outspend the unusually high deliveries in Q3 and make the financial results look ok or neutral.

So the train will probably leave the station late 2017 or early 2018. But I am holding long just in case of a 2H 2016 miracle.

 

[stealthology]

Thanks!

I didn't understand why you'd want to keep them. Seems very risky to me. Even riskier than buying them and the first place.

My thinking is that any surge between now and the M3 production ramp being successful could be temporary. I believe it will be successful but if Tesla is late by a few months due to some minor hiccups that would push the SP down.

So my plan has been to hope for a bump to something like $250 (or more) between now and February or March so I can roll my J18's to J19's. If the bump comes before I can affordably buy J19's I'll probably sell and buy some Mar17's to protect the upside.

I've got mostly J18 $280's that are slightly red now.

..But I am holding long just in case of a 2H 2016 miracle..

Hey Mitch, weren't you talking about buying 380 strike calls not too long ago?

On another note, it seems popular to be shaving Tesla shares lately. I'd say it's pretty hard to predict the future.

 

[FredTMC]

Thanks

Oh I get it. You believe in a "spike" of some duration, possibly due to a short squeeze. So your thesis is different from mine. I think the stock will go up and stay there, and there probably won't be any sort of temporary squeeze. But, if it happened I suppose it might be apparent and yes I would lighten my call exposure. But if I was a fervent believer in the merger related short squeeze thesis I would be holding shorter term calls for higher leverage.

I don't think voting will force a squeeze. The simplest thing that will happen is that shareholders that exist simply vote their shares and that is a small plurality and the move passes. Since share holders are overwhelmingly positive about Elon's guidance it will pass easily (remember "shorts" can't vote and it makes no sense for enemies of the company to buy shares to vote against it).

I think there is a modest chance that we see some upside due to a potential Q3 beat, but even that might be muted. By the same logic that bad model S/X news doesn't bury the stock anymore, modest good news might not move it to the upside anymore either. If the market is now valuing the company based on model 3 potential that delivering a few extra in Q3 to give a good result or surprise *shouldn't* cause a big move up. But if it does then yes I would call that a short term short squeeze and look for a top.

But I think TM might outspend the unusually high deliveries in Q3 and make the financial results look ok or neutral.

So the train will probably leave the station late 2017 or early 2018. But I am holding long just in case of a 2H 2016 miracle.

Thx Austin.

Just a minor point: Tesla didn't give ANY guidance for Q3 deliveries. Tesla only said 2nd half of 2016 would be "around 50k"

Based on this, I expect Q3 deliveries to be less than Q4. Something like 21k in Q3

Production is supposed to be higher in Q4

 

[SBenson]

The comment section just ruined my day. So much HATRED. I really don't understand it.

Think about this way - why would any average Joe on the street care to hate Tesla?

People will be totally agnostic (or oblivious) or they will love (or at least be impressed). There is no real reason to hate.

My theory is there are probably all together 5 people whose day-job is to hate Tesla and spew all over internet. That's how they pay their bills, you know.

 

[madodel]

If you guys need a laugh

Tesla bulls not 'doing their homework.' 40 rivals on the way: Tesla bear

Is CNBC striving to be cable's SeekingAlpha?

 

[tinm]

- What is the difference between smart people and wise people?
- Smart people always find their way out of difficult situations. Wise people do not get into difficult situations...

Thank goodness then that Elon and company are so smart or we'd all be driving ICEs still!

 

[madodel]

Think about this way - why would any average Joe on the street care to hate Tesla?

People will be totally agnostic (or oblivious) or they will love (or at least be impressed). There is no real reason to hate.

My theory is there are probably all together 5 people whose day-job is to hate Tesla and spew all over internet. That's how they pay their bills, you know.

I'm sure there are more than 5. Tesla threatens many industries/markets. Adding SolarCity adds more. All have skid loads of cash to protect their market shares, so paying for professional liars to smear Tesla is just cost of business.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Think about this way - why would any average Joe on the street care to hate Tesla?

People will be totally agnostic (or oblivious) or they will love (or at least be impressed). There is no real reason to hate.

Short version of an easy answer?
Years of training and a steady diet of FUD, then triggered by a dog whistle. This is enough to get FUD (petrobiz FUD, longtailpipe FUD, subsidies FUD) regurgitated into Comments of the dogwhistle article.
Not 'real' organic hate, which is what's needed to get cars keyed.

My .02, worth price paid

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Think about this way - why would any average Joe on the street care to hate Tesla?

People will be totally agnostic (or oblivious) or they will love (or at least be impressed). There is no real reason to hate.

My theory is there are probably all together 5 people whose day-job is to hate Tesla and spew all over internet. That's how they pay their bills, you know.

Because the average Joe is a mindless drone who's been taught that they're "smarter than the ev nuts", and that tesla wouldn't be able to remain in business if it weren't for the billions in government subsidies, etc ad nauseum.

Although one should never attribute to malice what can be done by stupidity, the stupidity is the source of the malice, so they go hand-in-hand. So yes, I believe in the idiocracy.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Shorts might wonder why today this is not below $160 already!