That could be a sign of very robust demand. However, aren't there very large gaps in the model X VIN numbers, which would make counting VINs near meaningless? Thought I read that somewhere, but I could be wrong.
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Seriously! Who are Srini and Drivin and why do they both keep disliking my posts at the same time? Are they the same person? What gives?
Troll alert. I would just consider their 'dislikes' as 'likes' or 'loves.' A badge of honor really.
18xxx already projected at mid October delivery. Vin 169xx is to be delivered in east coast end of September. Add VIN gaps. You are looking at max about 9-10k delivery this quarter.
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I bought SCTY today, since I don't have a scenario where the deal won't go through. The TSLA only institutional investors will be brought along, even if a some have concerns.
I bought SCTY today, since I don't have a scenario where the deal won't go through. The TSLA only institutional investors will be brought along, even if a some have concerns.
Krugerrand
Meow
Drivin has been around for a little while now. Most posts have a negative or sarcastic edge to them. Srini hasn't been around for very long and only dislikes certain bull poster posts in this thread and likes certain bear poster posts in this thread. I can pretty much tell you who is on each of those lists. Course you already know which list you're on.
I think what is moving the stock is the SolarCity news. Tesla supporting SolarCity in near term will cost shareholders about 13-15% dilution. This includes about 600-800M (250+55 by q4, NY factory support unknown) more equity raise possibility.
Regarding the 235 strike 10k contract move, it seems more like a short hedged upside (previously hedge at 255) while going crazy of selling short based on sentiment around SolarCity news. The position is so huge that this must be a big hedge fund taking advantage of the situation. While spending $1.5 or so, they are making a killing in the range of 20-40 depending on when this stops.
Regarding the 235 strike 10k contract move, it seems more like a short hedged upside (previously hedge at 255) while going crazy of selling short based on sentiment around SolarCity news. The position is so huge that this must be a big hedge fund taking advantage of the situation. While spending $1.5 or so, they are making a killing in the range of 20-40 depending on when this stops.
You understood correctly. SolarCity actually had about $3.4B in debt but an amount closer to $3.8B was given because Lazard accidentally double-counted some of the debt.
That might be worth checking SCTY's forms. If he is voting his roughly 20M SCTY shares, then if my math is right there's about 60M float, 20M short, and Musk's shares would be guaranteed to vote for the merger so they'd only need about 11M more yes votes.
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No. His delayed his blog post BEFORE the rocket blew up. The blog post was due yesterday, the rocket blew up today.
Hmmm, thinking about the insideevs numbers. If we get evidence that Q3 deliveries are anywhere above 24k, then 50k for H2 is in the bag (just need 26k for Q4)!
larmor
Active Member
Thanks... So if someone wanted to short something it would be Lazard or the calculator he uses...
On top of this, the error was double-counting SCTY debt, making SCTY look worse than it actually is So revealing the error should, for anyone sane, cause SCTY to go UP and should cause TSLA stockholders to vote FOR the merger.
We're all speculating on why the massive stock moves today and yesterday. Well, part of it is that *somehow* the brokerages managed to find a lot more shares for shorts to borrow. Quite suddenly. I'm left wondering who put their shares into the lending market. It has to be a big institution (or a bunch of people who were recruited by a big institution) for so many shares to appear so quickly, when shares-to-borrow have been so tight for so long.
This led to a massive pile-in by shorts over the last two days.
This led to a massive pile-in by shorts over the last two days.
That's why a lot of people stay out of the stock market. Or do momentum investing. You have to have the right sort of temperment to buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.
I'm actually pretty sure it does. We went from "0 shares available to short" to hundreds of thousands on Tuesday. And then look at the price action on Wednesday and Thursday.... and you can also follow the whittling away at the available shares to short at IB.
There were clearly bears sitting on the sidelines waiting for shares to become *available* to short, and they shorted them when they became available. All at once. The real question is: who suddenly dumped hundreds of thousands of shares into the lending market?
Could it be someone who wants to engineer an opportunity to acquire additional shares at bargain? I don't go so far to call it an attempt to short squeeze as it wouldn't benefit them, only nimble small traders would.
By the way, this dump must be in the order of several millions, as today's volume was over 7 million.
Solarcity does represent financial risk since it's free cash flow negative.
Liquidity Risk does imply stock Price concession.
Liquidity risk can delay or even abort model 3 production.
And moreover lead to a potentially insolvent situation.
It seems the market is discounting that potential scenario.
In my view, Tesla can overcome that by selling over 25,000 vehicles per quarter
Until model 3 kicks in. At That level of production and sales ,
confidence will be restored and allow for access to the capital markets.
Moreover insolvency will be dismissed.
The incoming data for q3 suggests 24,000 plus vehicles are doable.
Once that's confirmed the stock should rally .
Just add a yuuuuuge maybe to everything I've said above.
Liquidity Risk does imply stock Price concession.
Liquidity risk can delay or even abort model 3 production.
And moreover lead to a potentially insolvent situation.
It seems the market is discounting that potential scenario.
In my view, Tesla can overcome that by selling over 25,000 vehicles per quarter
Until model 3 kicks in. At That level of production and sales ,
confidence will be restored and allow for access to the capital markets.
Moreover insolvency will be dismissed.
The incoming data for q3 suggests 24,000 plus vehicles are doable.
Once that's confirmed the stock should rally .
Just add a yuuuuuge maybe to everything I've said above.
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I'm sure there were longs trading (stop-loss orders probably triggered) but the added shares-to-lend were at least a million shares judging by reports.
The plot thickens when you look at the trading that led up to this renewed availability of shares to short. For weeks we had been trading in the 220-230 range, yet there was a slow decline in the SP that was characterized by an abnormal amount of selling in the late afternoon hours when volume is really low and with spike selling shortly after opening of regular trading on many days. This trading had the effect of bringing TSLA to a penny below the critical support level of 220 on Friday at end of regular trading. This was a very precarious price for TSLA to be teetering on. Then on Monday morning we saw the downward spikes of selling, followed by near recoveries of buying, followed by more downward spikes, which is a tug-of-war common to strategic short selling. TSLA crossed below critical moving averages that day.
My point is that the introduction of hundreds of thousands of additional shares to short coincided with the drop below a strong support level and critical MAs. The timing of this introduction in short shares appears to be anything but coincidental because it occurred exactly at a time when shorts would be hungry for increasing their short positions.
This appears to my eye to be one of the biggest manipulations of TSLA SP I have seen since trading. The question we now ought to entertain is what is the likely trajectory of TSLA from here? If you believe that someone intentionally sank TSLA's SP, the logical reason would be that they wish to buy more shares and do so at a bargain price. Presumably, the manipulator could also be someone who sold large numbers of calls and wants to ensure a nice profit, but if only weeklies close on Friday that theory probably can not stand. Your opinions very much welcome.
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