Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Intl Professor]

It just goes to show that Musk is *extremely* bad at estimating when something can realistically be completed. He's not perfect.

Maybe someone has already offered or implied this, but his practice may be his way of disciplining himself. "I've said this by such and such a time, so I better get it done." Then like other busy (80 hour work weeks!) people his focus is distracted or whatever. Doesn't bother me since my metabolic rate is near zero by comparison.

 

[MitchJi]

Given the actual events, investigations, "demand levers", SCTY and disclosures over the last 90 days it is plausible that some investors want to take advantage of the price going lower over 6, 12 or 18 months and that is not the same as price manipulation. Many who see the stock as overvalued have bought puts, at a substantial premium, and that can't be construed as manipulation. So perhaps instead of focusing on short selling and its affect on price action it makes more sense to ask what is the case for being a short seller? Not sure how watching number of shares available to borrow gives a retail investor any actionable information.

This is the ST thread. Maybe if you change retail investor to retail trader it makes more sense to you?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Makes some sense... SCTY is still at a ~14% discount to the merger ratio. Hopefully TSLA isn't on its way down to meet it.

Yeah, let's hope not. TSLA is back over 200 so we can hope they both will climb, with SCTY climbing faster, to meet each other at a higher level.

Edit: And then it dropped below 200 again...

 

[racer26]

Yeah, let's hope not. TSLA is back over 200 so we can hope they both will climb, with SCTY climbing faster, to meet each other at a higher level.

Edit: And then it dropped below 200 again...

Smells to me like the shorts are running out of ammo and we're headed back up, like has happened on several days in the last few weeks, yesterday included. Yesterday was basically freefall until the shorts ran out of ammo, and then it flattened out.

 

[nienco2]

This is the ST thread. Maybe if you change retail investor to retail trader it makes more sense to you?

So how does a retail trader use that information?

 

[tanner]

There's a reason TSLA is falling... While everyone here (for the most part) knows for a FACT TSLA is worth $260/share+, and can see the value in what Elon is trying to accomplish, the street is extremely skeptical. TSLA has a very high debt ratio, and now they're going to aquire SCTY (which has even more debt)... This raises significant questions for both instational investors and the professionals on the street. For one, how will TSLA finance this if they've already been turned down by every investor? Another public sock offering, and in turn more debt... TSLA will (unfortunately) keep drifting lower until we get some good news. But for the long term price to be maintained, as previously mentioned, we absolutely need Model 3s to start rolling off the production line in late 2017. Personally I bought shares of TSLA around $220 on extreme weakness, it reversed momentarily, however technicals once again turned and I got out alive with a loss of only a few hundred dollars. Will be looking for another entry, this is a massive discount to what TSLA will be worth in 18 months!

 

[aznt1217]

There was a big order to sell, likely by a short seller. They would have expected a shove under $200 to trigger a cascade of stop loss limits set by weak longs.

I figured that, it looked like a big block changed hands. It's odd, I'd imagine there would be covering heading into the extended weekend. Guess the short thesis is still "Tesla is worth 0"

 

[racer26]

So how does a retail trader use that information?

Simple. I sell when the shorts have ammo, because the share price will drop as they use it, and then when they run out of ammo, I buy, and wait until they find more ammo, then sell again.

 

[nienco2]

Simple. I sell when the shorts have ammo, because the share price will drop as they use it, and then when they run out of ammo, I buy, and wait until they find more ammo, then sell again.

So where are we now buying or selling? Are there other stocks you trade this way?

 

[cluster]

We may soon see downgrade by major institutions, like GS or MS. Then see you at 180

 

[racer26]

So where are we now buying or selling? Are there other stocks you trade this way?

I don't personally trade that way, but its simple to see how that thesis could work. For several days where short ammo goes to zero, the SP drops until they run out and then climbs.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

EM should be really ashamed of his I-don't-care way of treating Tesla share holders. I have been holding tesla shares nearly 3 years now: no gains while lots of pains!

And yet you still hold all your shares. Had the stock gone up this past year, would you have trimmed your position to "lock in" some of those gains. It would've been the prudent thing to do. As long term shareholders, our job is to make the stock value illiquid so that Tesla the company has easy access to funding as needed, but we don't. Why is this asymmetric expectation between shareholders and corporate leadership the norm, instead of how Elon is doing it? A CEO's job should be the long-term success of a company, not it's short-term profits.

You're pissing into the wind by holding TSLA shares long term AND expecting EM to do as you'd expect any other CEO to do. Vote with your wallet and commit or bail.

 

[SuperDragon]

I cant stop buying tsla today

 

[maoing]

It's getting there! The most recent low was on 6/24 at $193.14.

most recent low is 188.55 on 06/27.

 

[Quesder]

I cant stop buying tsla today

I thought you said you are going to buy it at $18X

 

[SuperDragon]

i had to settle with $19X and im ok with that

 

[electracity]

I cant stop buying tsla today

I predict you will stop posting at $160.

 

[SuperDragon]

I predict I will buy more at $16X

 

[electracity]

I predict I will buy more at $16X

SCTY is a better stock to trade. It moves significantly for stupid but public reasons.
TSLA is better for a high risk, long term bet IMO.

 

[EinSV]

Bought more shares to hold long-term at $198.33.