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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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So let's say Tesla pulls off GAAP profitability and cash flow positive-- Elon sure sounds pretty convincing, and has quite a bit on the line here. This would have to be pretty positive for share price, right? Profitable, with record setting deliveries. We could drift a little further down this month before serious buyers step in. The letter and the conference call pretty much lay it all out IMO.

In the Q2 call, it seemed like they were aiming for non-GAAP profitability for 2H16. In Elon's e-mail, he states GAAP profitability and cash flow positive are definitely within reach. Is there any chance Elon meant to write non-GAAP instead of GAAP profitable? The Q2 call where they said non-GAAP and e-mail where he said GAAP were less than a month apart I believe.

Does anyone have a wild guess as to how many inventory/loaners/showroom/etc cars could be offloaded in Q3 vs say Q2? I wonder how many of these cars they shed in Q4 last year.

Regarding the GAAP profitability statement in the email... IMO there's not a snowball's chance in hell that he meant non-GAAP. He is very careful with his wording. He definitely meant what he said: Full GAAP profitability is their goal.

Now will they hit it? F if I know... But it certainly seems like they are trying like hell and pretty damn close.
 
In other news, Governor Cuomo visited the SolarCity factory today, is very confident that the Tesla-Solar-City merger will happen and is a good thing for both companies, and is not concerned about SolarCity's finances.

Cuomo visits SolarCity: ‘I am just blown away by this facility’ - The Buffalo News

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo is standing by the state’s $750 million investment in a sprawling solar panel factory for SolarCity in South Buffalo.

In his first comments on the centerpiece project for the Buffalo Billion since SolarCity last week disclosed that it was facing a severe cash crunch and had briefly considered – and subsequently decided against – selling its solar panel manufacturing business, Cuomo said the Buffalo factory is part of a broader strategy focusing on the growth of the clean energy industry.

“Clean energy has to happen. That we know,” Cuomo said Wednesday in response to a question about SolarCity’s weakened finances. “This is the state-of-the-art plant in building solar panels, so I am confident we are where we need to be and in the right place in the market in the evolution of the market.”

The 1.2 million-square-foot factory, built and owned by the state, is nearing completion, with mostly finishing work needing to be done before SolarCity takes control of the plant on Sept. 16. The company plans to start installing equipment in the factory during the fourth quarter, with production expected to begin by the end of June, said Steve James, the senior vice president of operations for SolarCity’s solar panel manufacturing business.

Cuomo, speaking with reporters in the vast and largely empty factory on South Park Avenue, said the facility’s completion is a milestone in the state’s Buffalo Billion economic development initiative and a key point in the Buffalo Niagara region’s shift from the Old Economy to the New Economy.

“This is the economy of tomorrow,” Cuomo said, noting that the factory is located on the site of the former Republic Steel plant. “It’s such a metaphor – a symbol of everything we’re doing.”

“I am just blown away by this facility,” Cuomo said. “When you see it, you are just blown away by the reality of it.”

Howard Zemsky, the president of Empire State Development, downplayed concerns about SolarCity’s slowing growth and rising borrowing costs.

“I think discussion of things like insolvency are off the mark,” Zemsky said.

“I don’t believe that there’s really a discussion about insolvency,” said Zemsky, noting that electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors has agreed to acquire SolarCity for $2.3 billion. “I think the potential merger with Tesla will strengthen SolarCity further. I think we have to be really careful not to create those concerns where they don’t necessarily exist.”

“This is the No. 1 market share company in the country in solar panels in one of the fastest growing industries in the world,” Zemsky said. “I think we start. We get up to 500 people and we keep going.”
 
Yes, it will better the other stocks in that group eventually....Just tell us when, if you know

As usual when I try to be cute, I blow it. I haven't the foggiest when it will happen, but the conditional "if" is what I was playing with. Barring some truly great tragedy (say war over Ukraine) I have no worry that at some time in the future we will again have a blow out stock increase.

Leaning on the work of nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine and others, I am convinced there is considerable scientific and mathematical reason to believe certainty in the real world of our experience is to be found only in the realm of pure logic or mathematics. Einstein said something to the effect that insofar as mathematics is certain, it does not refer to reality; when it applies to the real world it is uncertain.

A few years ago I tried trading TSLA and in a matter of days with little stake lost seven shares in the $250 plus range. Not for me, and I'm too dumb and lazy to learn anything at all about options and when smart responsible short term investors here talk about puts, straddles, leaps, etc., I have nothing but admiration for their knowledge, guts, skill, and apparently the mountains of cash accumulated over the years. It is enough for me to have a basic knowledge of engineering and economics to buy based only on certain milestones as Tesla achieves them. I started investing in Tesla in 2010 when the roadster was reported to get 300 miles per charge and my last purchase was 12 shares at just under $250 the first day of trading after the reveal. So far that has left us with a molehill—not a good deal of investible cash—of an investment portfolio in Tesla at just under $40 per share, and Baidu at $8.60 per share. Furthermore, I'm on a lowly professor's pension and social security so really haven't any spare powder to invest. I'm also saving for a down payment on one of the two M3s we have reserved or an X if the stock goes up again in time before the federal tax rebate is no longer available.

As experienced traders have suggested here, when I was able to invest it was in amounts I was willing to lose. Yes, I too got blindsided by the GTAT fiasco, but with tolerable amount lost.

Giving stock advice is like borrowing money or lending it and as Polonius warned: "borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry and loan oft loses both itself and friend." But if I were sitting on a mound of cash I'd invest some of it gladly at any price below $250, but I'd be prepared to lose it. Not advice; just what I'd do, and have done. Yes, I am a cowardly long, and that crack will probably alienate the longs here—everybody in one day, a new record!

I think I would feel the same way you do in your situation and I'm sorry if my reach for a bon phrase annoyed you. Your work is always a pleasure to read as are so many on this thread.
 
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One of the Fidelity (FMR) fund managers is *gung ho in favor* of the merger (Fidelity OTC). I think the committee which decides on voting would not want to cross this fund manager by voting against the merger. He'd probably be quite mad if they did.

One of Tesla's Biggest Investors Throws Support Behind SolarCity Deal

TBH, i do not know how they operate. But i think its possible that they vote differently. However, I think FMR llc holds a lot of SCTY shares as well. So I am inclined to think they will vote YES.
 
In other news, Governor Cuomo visited the SolarCity factory today, is very confident that the Tesla-Solar-City merger will happen and is a good thing for both companies, and is not concerned about SolarCity's finances.

Cuomo visits SolarCity: ‘I am just blown away by this facility’ - The Buffalo News
Solar City factory in NY is a safe political play for a Democrat Governor of the same state, when weighed against the probability of a failed Solar City bringing down the economic benefit of their facility there in such a way that the political fallout transports back in time and hurts Cuomo now. It's more likely that that factory will be good politics right now than it is that it will soon become such a horrendous failure that it is so bad politically very soon that it is worse to be attached to trying to make it succeed now than to have let it fail. That's not much information about the finances of Tesla & Solar City. However:

The more important information that I got from that article is that enough New Yorkers continue to be in favor of that facility enough for it to succeed from that end. To have the Governor in support of it means that it is still a fairly safe consideration for product manufacturing, and since we already know they've been practicing the manufacturing small-scale here in California, there isn't much in doubt that they will be able to scale their manufacturing into their New York factory, with Tesla being at the helm. The way I see it, this is a good bet if it is run by Tesla. I know less about the innovation and factory operations capabilities of Solar City.
 
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I would be happy to bet you many dollars that if you bought Tesla today at 200 then waited about 60-90 days and sold you would make around 30 or more per share. Plenty of ways to make good money in TSLA other than just holding.

It is completely impossible to know, whether Tesla (or any stock) is 60-90 days from today higher or lower.

Just a fact; TSLA is now cheaper than two years or one year ago.
 
As usual when I try to be cute, I blow it. I haven't the foggiest when it will happen, but the conditional "if" is what I was playing with. Barring some truly great tragedy (say war over Ukraine) I have no worry that at some time in the future we will again have a blow out stock increase.
...
Giving stock advice is like borrowing money or lending it and as Polonius warned: "borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry and loan oft loses both itself and friend." But if I were sitting on a mound of cash I'd invest some of it gladly at any price below $250, but I'd be prepared to lose it. Not advice; just what I'd do, and have done. Yes, I am a cowardly long, and that crack will probably alienate the longs here—everybody in one day, a new record!
Thanks for the words of wisdom, Professor! And to continue with the flippancy, didn't Polonius also say something about false friends and bad advice? So I'd better continue to Stay Away from SA! :p (I too lost a decent bundle on gtat :mad: )
 
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Speaking of market timing:

Interesting article in The Economist regarding a research paper analyzing timing one's investments in relationship to the Fed meetings. Here's a link from bogleheads.org (which links the original article and has some good comments; no I'm not a regular there but it popped up on my google search and is a good read).

Basically if you had invested during the weeks of the multiple fed meetings (every 2 weeks or so), you would have made more money than investing in other weeks, tracked from 1994.

The Economist: "The long arm of the Fed" - Bogleheads.org

So let's keep it a secret... now that I posted it ;)
 
Oh. The dreaded upsell. Because that is really what Tesla customers miss from the traditional car dealer model.
There is a lot of difference between upselling "extended" warranty, expensive window tint, "finance deal" that rip you off, useless paint protection
..and..
State of the art solar generation & storage system for your home.

Ridiculous case of reductio ad absurdum. I guess you have never been to a Tesla store.
 
There is a lot of difference between upselling "extended" warranty, expensive window tint, "finance deal" that rip you off, useless paint protection
..and..
State of the art solar generation & storage system for your home.

There really is not. If you are in the market for either it's ok. If you aren't it's the worst. Simple as that.

Ridiculous case of reductio ad absurdum. I guess you have never been to a Tesla store.

Where I live the distances are shorter : I've probably been to more stores than the average poster. I can walk to one store, jog to another and drive less than 90 minutes to 6 more.
 
There really is not. If you are in the market for either it's ok. If you aren't it's the worst. Simple as that.

It is not that simple and it is not it is not the worst.

There is a massive difference between typical dealer hard sell and Tesla's soft sell.

What Tesla does is almost not selling.

They allow you to walk about the store without pestering you.

If you look at Tesla employees like you have a question they come over to help you.

They give you basic information and if you ask they give you more.

If you are no longer interested in a deeper dive they leave you alone.

Stopped by an appliance store today. The salesman stood over my shoulder the entire time I was checking out appliances. Evidently I need to find a premium appliance store that pays salespeople by the hour not commission.
 
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Also on: https://t.co/OV97CAviDY
 
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