Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Gerardf]

EU commission: Diesel out, electric in.
The Commission plans a series of measures favoring batteries over fossil fuels.
Diesel at dead end as Europe shifts to electric

Also notice the fossile fuel lobby commenting.
Lets hope this does not end in even more hydrogen subsidy as a compromise.

News (20/07/2016) - Transport

 

[SteveG3]

Why GM is limiting the annual production to 30k is a mystery, and they don't seem to have any plans to ramp up production. I bet they will have hard time selling even that minuscule number of cars.

don't forget that the GF's original planned capacity was the same as the whole planet's lithium ion cell production in 2014. only a small minority of that 2014 production went to vehicles, and, probably just about all of that was soaked up by the Model S and the Leaf. there's just not sufficient battery supply unless you are committed to make the supply yourself. that's precisely why Tesla decided to do a GF in the first place.

with 30K max production, GM gets it's toe in the water with EVs, gets help meeting some regulatory requirements, but gets to keep it's foot heavily on the breaks in it's move to EVs to try to avoid a frenzied disruption of their existing business and identity.

 

[Gerardf]

Why GM is limiting the annual production to 30k is a mystery, and they don't seem to have any plans to ramp up production. I bet they will have hard time selling even that minuscule number of cars.

Even Bob Lutz says that GM will make a big loss on the Bolt. He might be corrrect on that one.
It will be interesting to see when GM will offer and ship the Bolt in all states and in Europe.

 

[FredTMC]

Me too.

I do not think that Bolt looks ugly. To me it looks like a tall subcompact wagon designed to maximize interior space. The i3, on another hand is pretentious weird mobile.

As far as the range goes, Model 3 will probably have 55kWh battery pack, 215 miles range in a single motor variant and will match Bolt range in dual motor variant while matching Bolt price.

Bolt will be a bargain as GM will have to discount them heavily. I am thinking $5 to $10K off. I doubt anybody will buy Bolt over a dual motor Model 3 if they cost the same, with Model 3 having vastly superior specs. If Bolt will cost $20K - $25K after the rebate, it will be a very compelling offering. The problem is that at this price point it will likely be a big money looser for GM.

Base version of Model3 will be at least 215 mile range. Larger battery will beat Bolt.

Also, tesla will make positive GM on model 3 overall and bolt will likely have less GM (or even negative) due to low volume (lack of Economies of scale in procurement and production)

 

[sub]

I'm in California but deep in the land of red neck, the typical (I'm guessing) GM brand loyal customer is not an EV customer. This is a delimna for them in addition to EV's killing their core business of gas guzzling trucks and suv's. Esthetics are subjective, I drive an i3 unfortunately and agree it's a weird mobile, but I agree with Julian, the bolt is a 15k car you get the priveledge of paying 37k for. Add in auto pilot advances before M3 and supercharger access and it's a no brainer. I hope GM sells them all for the sake of the planet however.

 

[FANGO]

I'm going to hop right into this conversation before the hate machine starts spinning up (as it too often does) to go ahead and remind everyone here: same team. The Bolt is great, it's an accomplishment which deserves to be lauded, and we should all be happy and proud that GM is bringing it to market. They are the first major manufacturer to come out with a car which can be a "first-and-only" car for the common man, at a price near the average selling price of new vehicles in the US, and they are perhaps, as of this moment, the most serious major manufacturer with their EV efforts (with Nissan right up there as well). When Tesla threw the gauntlet down with the Roadster and then subsequent vehicles, the only ones who tried to grab it were GM and Nissan (with BMW giving it a glance and everyone else in another room entirely mostly breathing their own farts and telling everyone how great they smell), and GM seems a bit closer to grabbing that gauntlet at this particular moment.

This is great, this is good for all of us, as humans, as things with lungs, as things who live on this planet, and as Tesla investors. I have nothing negative to say about the Bolt, except perhaps that they are not currently planning to make enough of them. And we should all think the same way about this car instead of the typical badmouthing brand-hate crap that always comes up in car conversations. If I see a single "Tesla with a Calvin sticker peeing on a GM logo" (which is about the intelligence level I attribute to this "dur the Bolt is stupid" mentality that many possess - and, mind you, I make the same comments on other EV forums about those who say anything bad about Tesla) I'm going to burn this whole planet to the ground.

There's room for all of us. The more the merrier. Same team.

 

[PaulRocket]

My uncle works for GM. He's responsible for Opel and said that they will loose about $5,000 per vehicle. Also in Europe production will be much less then 30,000 vehicles per year.

 

[3Victoria]

Kudos to GM for the Bolt and its range. The Bolt is ugly, but just yhe thing for a second or even first car for and urban couple that needs an all purpose run-about. It would seem to me that a Y on the 3s skateboard would be amble competition to the Bolt, and relatively minimal design work for Tesla.

Lots of interesting developments this week.

 

[Fallenone]

Why GM is limiting the annual production to 30k is a mystery, and they don't seem to have any plans to ramp up production. I bet they will have hard time selling even that minuscule number of cars.

Every Bolt sold in CA will bring in 4 ZEV credits, which is worth about $16k in total.

 

[RobStark]

with 30K max production, GM gets it's toe in the water with EVs

GM plans 25k-30k units in 2017.

GM spokesman confirmed after the 30k number leaked that 50k-60k worldwide Bolts/Ampera-e are possible if demand is there.

 

[TMSE]

GM plans 25k-30k units in 2017.

GM spokesman confirmed after the 30k number leaked that 50k-60k worldwide Bolts/Ampera-e are possible if demand is there.

So, GM isn't even sure of the 50-60k worldwide demand. Compare that with the nearly 400k for Tesla.

 

[Gerardf]

So, GM isn't even sure of the 50-60k worldwide demand. Compare that with the nearly 400k for Tesla.

If it is correct that they make a loss on each Bolt, they might not be willing to produce more.
As Fallenone said, they can compensate the losses with ZEV, but not outside of ZEV states.

And maybe LG also have an upper limit on the cell's they are willing to sell for GM at 145 per car. As more volume could mean building a new factory, and both GM and LG might not be convinced of volume demand when the Model-3 starts to ramp production.

 

[RobStark]

So, GM isn't even sure of the 50-60k worldwide demand. Compare that with the nearly 400k for Tesla.

Nope, GM,Nissan, and LG Chem have been burned before on rosy plug-in sales projections leading to idle workers and factories. Meaning heavy losses.

Tesla is jumping out of the plane with silk fabric and nylon thread confident they can figure out making a parachute before a hard landing.

 

[schonelucht]

European price of the new Ampera may give us insight on wether they are making a loss. Worldwide demand should not be a problem, a new Ampera doing 350km+ for less than 35k EUR should sell 10 000 units in the Netherlands alone. There is already a fast charging network in place that provides better coverage than Tesla (by far) too.

 

[RobStark]

European price of the new Ampera may give us insight on wether they are making a loss. Worldwide demand should not be a problem, a new Ampera doing 350km+ for less than 35k EUR should sell 10 000 units in the Netherlands alone. There is already a fast charging network in place that provides better coverage than Tesla (by far) too.

Fast being relative. And only if you want to drive in The Netherlands.

For Dutch drivers that don't want to drive to Germany,France etc

Dutch Model 3 owners will be able to use Fastned at home and Superchargers for road trips.

 

[PaulRocket]

European price of the new Ampera may give us insight on wether they are making a loss. Worldwide demand should not be a problem, a new Ampera doing 350km+ for less than 35k EUR should sell 10 000 units in the Netherlands alone. There is already a fast charging network in place that provides better coverage than Tesla (by far) too.

Trust me, as I said earlier my uncle works for GM and in Europe they plan to sell a lot less then 10,000. Can't give a specific number though.

 

[SPadival]

I have stated this before. Other carmakers go out of their way to make their EV/hybrid cars look ugly. I think this is a deliberate business decision. They never ever make it look like a normal/conventional car. Tesla put a fake grille on Model S to give it a conventional look, for crying out loud. Toyota makes theirs with parts from a toy spaceship.

 

[davecolene0606]

GM dealers will again squash their efforts to sell this vehicle. Just as with the Volt, GM will have a vehicle with one of the highest owner satisfaction ratings along with great dependability. GM as a result of its dealership model will not sell large numbers and will resort to bribing its dealers to sell them and again get screwed by its only sales outlet.

The question will be whether they double down on fighting direct sales or say enough is enough. Sadly 60k worldwide sales is probably not enough to make that fight worthwhile.

In the mean time they'll sell every one of these, folks will be thrilled with their new citi cars and then they will buy a M3 when they realize they have no LONG RANGE FAST CHARGE (I mean really fast) solution! This car will only convert more folks to the reality that EV is simply BETTER than ICE.

If GM pre sold every one of these vehicles it is still like a ripple in the ocean from a pebble sales wise. This is a critical moment for sustainable transport. If they notice the ripple and throw in a rock next go around by adding a small pick up, we will then confirm they are serious. If they follow through with a fast charge solution and back it up with multiple locations, we will know they are serious. If they announce an investment to increase battery production by an order of magnitude, then we'll know they are serious. If they use a buncha free patents and pen a deal for access to,the SC network then we will know they are SERIOUS!

Don't hold your breath, keep your TSLA invest near by your side cuz really what's happening is they just left a can of flammable accelerants next to an electric ignition source. This is great for sustainable transport, great for Tesla and great for my ingenious plan to retire in five years and drive my Tesla all over this Country via the fastest already paid for SC system in the world!

And.. Oh yea, Woz, you forgot your gonna have a hard time road tripping in your free Bolt, but I hope your comment on the interface will motivate Elon to send us an update to quell that issue

Fire Away

 

[davecolene0606]

European price of the new Ampera may give us insight on wether they are making a loss. Worldwide demand should not be a problem, a new Ampera doing 350km+ for less than 35k EUR should sell 10 000 units in the Netherlands alone. There is already a fast charging network in place that provides better coverage than Tesla (by far) too.

OK, I'll bite, what fast charging network and what do you mean fast?

Fire Away

 

[RobStark]

OK, I'll bite, what fast charging network and what do you mean fast?

Fire Away

Fastned

50 kWh CHAdeMo and CCS.

BTW

If GM really wanted a Model 3 killer they would make a BEV Cadillac ATS with 238 miles of EPA Range for an MSRP of $37,500 with standard DC fast charging.

And get together with the other Detroit and European car makers on building a 150 kWh CCS Network in North America,Europe and China.