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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Has the SEC investigation which was opened in July (Tesla not disclosing autopilot crash right away) closed yet? Can this delay the SCTY deal?
Not an attorney, but what would their potential logic be? Seems to me this problem is only a question of transparency and certainly Tesla and SolarCity seem to have followed all of the rules about merger so far and any surprises, like the overvaluation of debt and recent funding of SCTY have done nothing to tarnish the public feel of the deal.
 
Just to speculate a bit on this tweet. Today TSLA traded roughly 3.6mm (3,583,187) shares. If there were 3mm shares recalled today, there will be roughly 3mm reduction in short interest and roughly 3mm shares that need to be bought over the next three days, i.e. by this Friday. I would love to hear from members who are professionally involved in trading and are familiar with nuts and bolts of the process, but for my (engineer) eye this spells major trouble for people trying to close short positions.

Love to see this happen. Fingers crossed...
 
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Yes, My point was a couple hundred in US is sufficient to start with for a small fleet. This is exactly what tesla did.

It's a multi year build-out ONLY because of small fleet size. Not because it's stupid expensive for GM

Get it?

I talked to a friend who is CEO of a charging network company (not Chargepoint) and talks to all of the car companies. He said GM has no intention of building their own network - they will be relying on the charging companies to do it. Here is Chargepoint's latest Fast Charging offering - coverage at best Tesla circa 2013, but charging only at 50kw. Bolt claims 90 miles in 30 minutes at 50kw. That's 33% downtime at best.

BMW and VW installed 95 DC fast-charging stations in the US with ChargePoint
 
When you goto dealer check 37.5k bolt

suddenly you found a same car chevy sonic starting at 15k

then a much better malibu only 20K a chevy SUV only 24K a buick enclave only 35K

What will you choose

You obviously don't understand, that there are many people who WANT an electric car. Bolt is the only electric car in your example.

Nissan has sold 230,000 Leafs worldwide since 2010, just because it is an electric car. Not because of it's range, interior space, looks or performance. If people would choose cars solely on your criteria, Nissan would have sold 0 Leafs.
 
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I am curious to know what the energy consumption per mile (kwh / mile) for Bolt, I assume Bolt will show the energy consumption diagram on the dashboard similar as Tesla. This is a more important number to tell energy efficiency.

Based on some of the press drives that happened, they seemed to get a real world of about 250Wh/mi. About what I'd expect for a low-performance, high-Cd EV.
 
Don't get too excited. It might be a while before electric car can outrun a fast ICE one on anything much longer than a quarter mile run. There's a reason Tesla isn't claiming any Ring lap records or even close to that. Not that it matters for most buyers.

Yep. I'm sure Model 3 won't beat BMW M3 Nurburgring lap time. Not that it has any meaning for evereday driving.

IIRC P85D has 8:50 time, BMW M3 has 8:22 time.

List of Nürburgring Nordschleife lap times - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
You obviously don't understand, that there are many people who WANT an electric car. Bolt is the only electric car in your example.

Nissan has sold 230,000 Leafs worldwide since 2010, just because it is an electric car. Not because of it's range, interior space, looks or performance. If people would choose cars solely on your criteria, Nissan would have sold 0 Leafs.

And IF Nissan Built a Nissan LEAF competitive with ICEv in its price class it would have sold 3.5M LEAFs between Nov 2010 and now.

The market for hair shirt punishment vehicles for the uber environmentalist is limited.

Since the LEAF was introduced Nissan has sold over 25,000,000 cars
 
Yes, all SEC correspondence will be disclosed. Look for filings named CORRESP and UPLOAD. There will also be Form S-4/A accompanying the responses (where they are amending the filings to conform to the SEC comments).

Given that the firming up of the record date is subject to the normal SEC review and comment process, should we expect CORRESP and UPLOAD filings *before* the record date, i.e. If we do not see these filings during the week of Sep. 19 the record date might be pushed back? Could you provide a little more detail on the expected sequence and timing of the filings as it might relate to the record date?
 
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Love to see this happen. Fingers crossed...

I hate to say it, but if people think a squeeze is going to happen; it probably won't.

This is more than contrary thinking. If shorts sense they may be caught with their pants down, they will exit. As the moment approaches, more and more do so.

The squeeze scenario only occurs if they are all forced to buy at once.
 
The maximum pain, interestingly enough sits at $207.5. It is doubtful that given the recall and expectation of increased volume in the second half of the week there will be much "herding" toward the max pain, but it is interesting as a MM prediction of where price might gravitate naturally. If true, it seems that max pain, given the macro pressures and uncertainty which seem to be gripping TSLA now, should have been much closer to the current trading price, i.e. somewhere around $195 - $197.5. I think it is significant that in spite of this background, max pain sits so high - at $207.5. Perhaps it is based on information about the recall and amount of covering in the pipeline, which MM would have at their disposal.

Disclaimer: this is not a trading advice, just another piece of information - you are responsible for assembling your own mosaic.
 
I hate to say it, but if people think a squeeze is going to happen; it probably won't.

This is more than contrary thinking. If shorts sense they may be caught with their pants down, they will exit. As the moment approaches, more and more do so.

The squeeze scenario only occurs if they are all forced to buy at once.

Your prediction can very well turn out to be true, but bolded part leaves a LOT of details out and is awfully imprecise. Would 3mm of shares to be covered over the course of three days, when the average volume over last week was about 3.5mm shares per day qualify? What about 3mm shares in two days? One day? What if there are more than 3mm in the pipeline, and more crowding in today and tomorrow?

IMO general discussion like this without attempt to put boundaries on time AND quantity of shares to be covered is quite hollow.

Millions, potentially more than 10mm of shares need to be covered in a week would definitely cause a squeeze. The uncertainty is in how many shares for covering are in the pipeline, and how many more will flood in the next few days. But the probability of the short squeeze is real and should not be dismissed easily, especially without any kind of specific data/analysis.
 
SolarCity, Berkshire's NV Energy settle Nevada rooftop solar dispute

"Thousands of rooftop solar energy customers in Nevada are expected to be grandfathered into older, more favorable rates for 20 years under a settlement between Elon Musk's SolarCity Corp (SCTY.O) and the NV Energy unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N).

Both companies on Tuesday confirmed the settlement, which is scheduled for a vote on Friday by Nevada's Public Utilities Commission.

The accord would shield roughly 32,000 customers who installed or applied to install rooftop solar before this year from new charges and reduced subsidies that the PUC had approved last December."
 
I love a short squeeze as much as the next TSLA share holder: It can occur for many reasons but the one being discussed the most is hypothesized to occur due to shares being recalled for voting rights about the merger.

It will be obvious to all if this happens by the rapid acceleration of share price upward.

We have not seen it yet. What is the date that if it does not happen because of the recall that we can say it is not happening because of the recall of shares?

Thanks
 
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