mejojo
Active Member
You must certainly be aware that Model 3 has been planned for a very long time, and much of the car was "frozen" long before the "pencils down" date. This is not a "start from scratch, Summer 16" kind of timeline.
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You must certainly be aware that Model 3 has been planned for a very long time, and much of the car was "frozen" long before the "pencils down" date. This is not a "start from scratch, Summer 16" kind of timeline.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Couple thoughts about product dev timelines:
Regarding Model3 launch concerns, I'm sure we will get lots of progress updates during Q3 call.
That said:
Per DaveT, it's high time to start seeing Model3 Alphas running around. Alpha builds don't require an assembly line or body-in-white weld line. Just stamp the panels and weld up the body by hand, paint it and assemble the rest. Just like the prototypes already in existence. Doesn't require the final interior either.
Regarding Model3 launch concerns, I'm sure we will get lots of progress updates during Q3 call.
That said:
Per DaveT, it's high time to start seeing Model3 Alphas running around. Alpha builds don't require an assembly line or body-in-white weld line. Just stamp the panels and weld up the body by hand, paint it and assemble the rest. Just like the prototypes already in existence. Doesn't require the final interior either.
It is very confusing at best to me. Who in GS did the upgrade recommendation in May? Was it Patrick or David? Patrick usually attends earnings calls. Has anything changed? Has Patrick stopped covering TSLA?
If an analyst who is at the 5th percentile on Tipranks with a 33% success rate downgrades a stock, shouldn't that in actuality be a bullish indicator? It would better for investors to tune out someone with a negative 45 % return in a bull market.
Anyway, I understand the arguments both ways and plan on just holding TSLA long term. If the market cannot appreciate TSLA's value, Elon should look for funds outside the market from other entities who understand Tesla's true inherent value and are willing to take a stake.
Per Bloomberg:
"Since he had upgraded the stock, Archambault has left Goldman. Tamberrino was on his team at the time."
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
racer26
Active Member
Alphas or Betas?
Aren't the prototypes we saw in March the alphas?
Seems to me its about time to see a small fleet of handbuilt Beta builds, and then seeing pre-production units rolling off the actual assembly line sometime late spring-ish next year.
Of course, its quite possible the fleet of prototypes already exist (or very nearly so) and we just haven't seen them because Tesla is keeping them under wraps until reveal part deux (which I expect Tesla is ready to do whenever, but they're waiting until the same week as the launch of the Bolt to steal GM's thunder by showing off all the reasons you should really wait for your Model 3 instead of buying a Bolt now.)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mariel-kennedy-70602781
The supporting analyst doesn't seem very credible
I could have sworn I saw at least a couple of Model III Alpha variants parked behind the Gigafactory during the unveiling, did anyone else notice them? They were parked behind the factory, not too far from the electrical power substation. I noticed them when I walked up to the elevated viewing area - most folks took a shuttle bus so I'm not sure if you could see them from the bus.
IIRC, the history of the S and X has been:
S Proto-type Reveal--April 2009
S Alpha--Completed Dec. 2010 (approved by BoD at Jan 2011 meeting for option vesting purposes)
S Beta- Completed by early Oct. 2011 (Fremont ride event)
S Initial Production--mid June 2012
S Volume Production--1Q13
X Proto-type Reveal--Feb.2012
X Alpha--August 2014 (????) (The April 2014 Proxy said not complete yet; the April, 2015 proxy said completed)
X Beta--Jan/Feb 2015(???) The April 2014 Proxy said not complete yet; the April, 2015 proxy said completed)
X Initial Production--late Sept. 2015
X Volume Production--2Q16
The most common definition of terms appears to be:
Alpha--95-99% Engineering Design Complete
Beta --95-99% Production Design Complete
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I could be wrong, but I think Beta cars are largely built with "production intent parts"
I always felt sorry for Apple's competitors that released new devices at the same time as the latest iPod/iPhone/iPad. If Tesla does Part Deux around the time of the Bolt is released, I won't feel sorry for GM.
One aspect of TSLA / Elon that I didn't like was their financial relationship with the Vampire Squid. I hope this "analysis" provides the opportunity for a nice and clean breakup between the two.
Oh .. On second thoughts, since "apple pie on Wall St's face" is involved, I don't think it will be clean.
Oh .. On second thoughts, since "apple pie on Wall St's face" is involved, I don't think it will be clean.
I do find it interesting that the Bloomberg article says, "Analysts estimate that Musk will need to raise as much as $2 billion."
That's not $3 billion, or $4 billion. And it's as much as $2 billion. The question is whether it needs up to $2 billion for 2017 or it wants up to $2 billion to accelerate 2018/2019. There's a big difference between the two.
Two things come to mind. First, if Tesla wants to raise in Q4 now, I think they are forced to tell us, as in the investor community more about their plans for 2017-2019. Potentially tell us a lot more about Tesla Energy - which means the dog and pony show at the end of the month and/or Q3 earnings call will need to have financial projections, including capacity projections.
They also need to tip their hands more on the status of the Model 3 build out. Just flat out stating they are on track is not getting the job done.
That's not $3 billion, or $4 billion. And it's as much as $2 billion. The question is whether it needs up to $2 billion for 2017 or it wants up to $2 billion to accelerate 2018/2019. There's a big difference between the two.
Two things come to mind. First, if Tesla wants to raise in Q4 now, I think they are forced to tell us, as in the investor community more about their plans for 2017-2019. Potentially tell us a lot more about Tesla Energy - which means the dog and pony show at the end of the month and/or Q3 earnings call will need to have financial projections, including capacity projections.
They also need to tip their hands more on the status of the Model 3 build out. Just flat out stating they are on track is not getting the job done.
Ulmo
Active Member
Goldman Sacks same evil bullshit as usual. This is a huge buying opportunity for bulls who think Solar City and existing pre-merger Tesla merged are bigger than the addition of the separate parts, as I do. Of course it will take a year to show this, and this might hurt the overall goal of Tesla to save the planet and also exist as a company, and Goldman Sacks knows all this and would rather enrich a few useless fat cats and kill the rest of us in the future.
So, if we believe Tesla can survive this Goldman Sacks attack, this is a bull case.
So, if we believe Tesla can survive this Goldman Sacks attack, this is a bull case.
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Having endured several named storms and their aftermath, my thoughts (and prayers if that is permissible here) are with our fellow citizens along the east coast of Florida. Hindsight is always 20/20, but here's hoping that Tesla/SolarCity was prescient enough to be testing a proto-type of the roofing system in Florida to get some empirical data about its durability in a (close-to) worse case real world scenario..
dennis
Model S Plaid
I just spoke to my Goldman contact ( who is a happy Model S owner) and he confirmed they have a new analyst following Tesla. He defended the downgrade as "a new set of eyes " looking at the company and it being part of the concerns about the auto sector overall that were called out in the full 80 page report.
Thank you. Patrick Archambault hasn't updated his LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-archambault-38347a32
I wonder where he is.
Thanks! (My experience has been that as you age, the 3rd thing "to go" is the thickness of your own skin)
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