Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[rog]

View attachment 198044

Not sure what was more surprising - the fact that he answered my tweet, or the answer itself I take it as a good sign (the answer).

 

[Cosmacelf]

It was suggested by @neroden.

Another possibility is offtake agreement related to TE with large upfront payment by the buyer in return for a large discount.

To move the needle, that would have to be a seriously huge order. It had been suggested that Tesla needs in the order of $1B to $2B in cash. A prepayment of $50M is almost a drop in the bucket. Or how big a TE order were you thinking?

 

[vgrinshpun]

It was suggested by @neroden.

Another possibility is offtake agreement related to TE with large upfront payment by the buyer in return for a large discount.

For example, if it TE signs agreement with a large utility, say Oncor of Texas for supply of 10GWh of BES througout the 2017 with upfront payment in return to heavily discounted price, say $350/kWh instead of the list price of $445/kWh, it can bring $3.5B in cash upfront, with $1.1B of this payment being gross profit, ensuring, as I speculated earlier profitability in 2017.

 

[MikeC]

To move the needle, that would have to be a seriously huge order. It had been suggested that Tesla needs in the order of $1B to $2B in cash. A prepayment of $50M is almost a drop in the bucket. Or how big a TE order were you thinking?

Perhaps that suggestion was incorrect.

 

[Gerardf]

To be exact, he said no capital raise in Q4.

Correct, but added in another tweet that it probably will not be needed for Q1 either

 

[geneclean55]

Lining up all these goodies....product announcements, expedited Q3ER.... and yet no cap raise. Its almost confusing, but I will take it.

 

[sunhelm]

First pie-in-a-wallstreet-face for GS tomorrow ?

That analysts rating is about to get even much worse (not that it CAN get much lower)
David Tamberrino : Ranked #3,978 out of 4,190 Analysts(#9,202 of 9,650 overall experts)

Great start for his first TSLA analyst report.

I am not familiar with this new Tamberrino guy but feel he was a sacrificial gambit by GS (always make the new guy take one for the team, to prove his fealty, I dunno). I admit I do not think the way Elon thinks ( multi dimensional chess play) and thought he made an unforced error slapping a pie in the WS face that feeds the equity machine. Forgot he always have something in his vest and hopefully now we begin to understand why he said "unwise" to all the shorts.

 

[MitchJi]

I do think the expansion is for Model 3. Maybe not the ones next year but they are preparing for the ramp. Factory tours show the current Fremont plant is almost full. And the expansion is just plan now, it takes time to get approval, build the exterior, fill the interior, test the machines, etc. A bit over a year of lead time is not that long.

Except at a M3 per every 20-30 seconds (initially, production rate can be increased) they won't need it for the 3.

 

[pGo]

For example, if it TE signs agreement with a large utility, say Oncor of Texas for supply of 10GWh of BES througout the 2017 with upfront payment in return to heavily discounted price, say $350/kWh instead of the list price of $445/kWh, it can bring $3.5B in cash upfront, with $1.1B of this payment being gross profit, ensuring, as I speculated earlier profitability in 2017.

I've heard a rumor that NextEra will be a huge TE partner. Nothing to back this up, yet.

 

[MitchJi]

For example, if it TE signs agreement with a large utility, say Oncor of Texas for supply of 10GWh of BES througout the 2017 with upfront payment in return to heavily discounted price, say $350/kWh instead of the list price of $445/kWh, it can bring $3.5B in cash upfront, with $1.1B of this payment being gross profit, ensuring, as I speculated earlier profitability in 2017.

Great idea. Something similar could easily happen, except that the TE V2 will cost less, and have higher capacity and probably bigger margins.

 

[sunhelm]

For example, if it TE signs agreement with a large utility, say Oncor of Texas for supply of 10GWh of BES througout the 2017 with upfront payment in return to heavily discounted price, say $350/kWh instead of the list price of $445/kWh, it can bring $3.5B in cash upfront, with $1.1B of this payment being gross profit, ensuring, as I speculated earlier profitability in 2017.

I think this is the most probable scenario, an upfront payment by a utility company. There was already a precedent where they can accelerate the project timeline to the alternative to peaker plants (re: the Aliso Canyon solution), to be online just after 3 months form winning the contract. Time is money, peaker plants are expensive, environmental impact due to CO2 affect us as a society. The solution to these will come to fruition in just a few months once the GF comes online. It's a massive first strike advantage.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

i haven't looked into TE too deeply... but a 150kwh diesel generator can be purchased for about $25k... and the equivalent capacity in Powerpacks would be about $65k... I'm having a hard time understanding the cost argument.

Your data centers must have ground floor access then. In the cities, most don't, and running conduit and demo/construction work can easily cost 6-figures and up.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I've heard a rumor that NextEra will be a huge TE partner. Nothing to back this up, yet.

That is interesting - do you have more ... *color* on this?

Found this article published back in Sept. of last year, and it sounds very encouraging.

NextEra on Storage: ‘Post 2020, There May Never Be Another Peaker Built in the US’


Energy storage at utility scale just got a $100M vote of confidence from one of the world's largest utilities.

NextEra Energy wants to be "the largest, most profitable clean energy provider in the United States," according to Jim Robo, CEO of the utility giant, at an analyst conference at Wolfe Research in New York on Tuesday. (Here's a link to audio from the event.)

But Robo also said, "We're starting to make very good progress in our energy storage business," noting that energy storage is one of "three growth platforms" at NextEra.

When a player like NextEra Energy, a Fortune 200 firm with utility revenues of $17 billion and 44,900 megawatts of generating capacity, starts to tout energy storage, the utility industry and the renewables industry take notice. “Battery storage is the holy grail of the renewables business,” said the CEO, adding, “If we can deliver firm power to renewable customers at a cost-effective rate, you’ll see renewables explode even faster than they already are.”

“This has the potential to be an extremely big market"
According to the CEO, "We're going to deploy probably $100 million in [energy storage] projects in the next 12 months in places like PJM, California and Arizona."

These projects will mostly be for frequency regulation, but there's also a 4-hour project being deployed next year and an R&D project with storage "deployed at substations to drive reliability." Robo noted that energy storage "isn't going to be just to firm renewables." He suggested it will be used in a variety of applications such as "reliability purposes and transmission avoidance."

Robo said that he and his team expect energy storage prices to experience a similar cost plunge to that of solar costs over the last seven years. If that happens, energy storage will be competitive with gas peaker plants.

Robo said, "Post-2020, there may never be another peaker built in the United States -- very likely you'll be just building energy storage instead."

"It is a great time to be in the renewables business," said Robo, adding that he also believes the wind production tax credit will be extended.

NextEra is one of the leading producers of wind and solar power in the world. So, it's worth noting when NextEra's CEO says, "I want to be the leader in energy storage in the country."

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm really trying to figure out what this announcement could be, but I just don't know. Most of the other surprise announcements, it's been possible to make a good educated guess, but this one is tough. He didn't give us much to go on. Some thoughts:

1. Model 3 part two: Probably not - he would have just said so.
2. Tesla inverter, Powerwall v2, Powerpack v2, Tesla DC wall charger: Doesn't make sense to reveal them before the reveal on the 28th. Though, of these, I guess the Powerpack v2 would have least relevance to Solar City, so maaybe.
3. Autopilot v2: Maybe.
4. Solid snake supercharger: Maybe, but no reason to reveal it now, as it really only makes sense when combined with level 5 autonomy.
5. Model Y: Probably too soon, and I think there would be a bigger event.
6. Model 3 variant (hatchback/wagon): Could be Tesla's solution to the criticized trunk opening, so maybe.
7. Tesla Bus concept: Maybe.
8. Model X 5-seater: Timing fits, but not sure if it warrants a reveal. Probably my top contender.
9. 21-70-based pack for Model S/X: Maybe.
10. CCS charging adapter: Maybe.

 

[FluxCap]

To be exact, he said no capital raise in Q4.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This is the equivalent of a modern day "double tap" airstrike on the shorts. Love it.

 

[SBenson]

My bet is that the 17th announcement is AP 2.0.

 

[geneclean55]

Is it too much to ask for a little help from the general market this coming week. Last week was very bleh all round.

 

[PaulRocket]

My bet is that the 17th announcement is AP 2.0.

It makes sense, especially since they stopped the production line for a week, maybe to implement these changes, however I feel like they would want to invite lots of people and demo the new capabilities...

 

[doggusfluffy]

That is interesting - do you have more ... *color* on this?

Found this article published back in Sept. of last year, and it sounds very encouraging.

NextEra on Storage: ‘Post 2020, There May Never Be Another Peaker Built in the US’


Energy storage at utility scale just got a $100M vote of confidence from one of the world's largest utilities.

NextEra Energy wants to be "the largest, most profitable clean energy provider in the United States," according to Jim Robo, CEO of the utility giant, at an analyst conference at Wolfe Research in New York on Tuesday. (Here's a link to audio from the event.)

But Robo also said, "We're starting to make very good progress in our energy storage business," noting that energy storage is one of "three growth platforms" at NextEra.

When a player like NextEra Energy, a Fortune 200 firm with utility revenues of $17 billion and 44,900 megawatts of generating capacity, starts to tout energy storage, the utility industry and the renewables industry take notice. “Battery storage is the holy grail of the renewables business,” said the CEO, adding, “If we can deliver firm power to renewable customers at a cost-effective rate, you’ll see renewables explode even faster than they already are.”

“This has the potential to be an extremely big market"
According to the CEO, "We're going to deploy probably $100 million in [energy storage] projects in the next 12 months in places like PJM, California and Arizona."

These projects will mostly be for frequency regulation, but there's also a 4-hour project being deployed next year and an R&D project with storage "deployed at substations to drive reliability." Robo noted that energy storage "isn't going to be just to firm renewables." He suggested it will be used in a variety of applications such as "reliability purposes and transmission avoidance."

Robo said that he and his team expect energy storage prices to experience a similar cost plunge to that of solar costs over the last seven years. If that happens, energy storage will be competitive with gas peaker plants.

Robo said, "Post-2020, there may never be another peaker built in the United States -- very likely you'll be just building energy storage instead."

"It is a great time to be in the renewables business," said Robo, adding that he also believes the wind production tax credit will be extended.

NextEra is one of the leading producers of wind and solar power in the world. So, it's worth noting when NextEra's CEO says, "I want to be the leader in energy storage in the country."

How about another WAG...Next Era buying a Texas Gigafactory? I believe Tesla previously had a 2B deal in Texas with Oncor directly that was ultimately cancelled around 2014.

Florida-based NextEra agrees to $18.4 billion deal to buy Texas electricity giant Oncor | Energy | Dallas News

"We are incredibly impressed by Oncor's management team and its employees, and we are committed to retaining the Oncor name, its Dallas headquarters and local management," he said. "We look forward to working closely with Oncor's leadership team and filing our joint application with the Public Utility Commission of Texas."