Orders, pays and times pickup for drive-thru, dry cleaners or grocery store
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The only downside will be the Q4 predictions, which may be lowered if there was any stoppage of the assembly line to change over to the new AP 2.0 hardware.
From what others are reporting, new orders are now estimating in delivery in the December time frame, and thus far (I could be wrong) I don't think anyone has taken delivery of an AP 2.0 vehicle.
When is the Summons functionality originally announced going to be delivered? So far we have a subset. That subset was late.
For those of you who haven't seen Tesla's autopilot 2.0 video yet, you can find it here:
Autopilot
Autopilot
The market reacted just as I expected and expressed yesterday.
As for long-term effect, I still have mixed feelings.
Replacing inferior external system (MBLY) with superior in-house system (Tesla-Vision) is a Good Thing !
Adding more sensors to the sytem (8 camera) is also a good thing.
Bragging about the capability of the new system without proof -- that the hardware is sufficient for level5 autonomy and it will be achieved within a year or so is a Bad Thing!
If they added the same hardware, but presented it in a more modest form, e.g. "We have an improved next generation hardware system that will allow us to make significant progress towards higher level autonomy in the near future"
That would have been very positive catalyst and the market would welcome it.
Then if they actually achieve full autonomy within 2 years it would have been a great win.
However, now Elon is again promising too much, which he may not be able to deliver on time (as usual).
This is still the best system now in the world but by over-selling it, he puts himself into a very difficult situation, which is entirely unnecessary.
As for long-term effect, I still have mixed feelings.
Replacing inferior external system (MBLY) with superior in-house system (Tesla-Vision) is a Good Thing !
Adding more sensors to the sytem (8 camera) is also a good thing.
Bragging about the capability of the new system without proof -- that the hardware is sufficient for level5 autonomy and it will be achieved within a year or so is a Bad Thing!
If they added the same hardware, but presented it in a more modest form, e.g. "We have an improved next generation hardware system that will allow us to make significant progress towards higher level autonomy in the near future"
That would have been very positive catalyst and the market would welcome it.
Then if they actually achieve full autonomy within 2 years it would have been a great win.
However, now Elon is again promising too much, which he may not be able to deliver on time (as usual).
This is still the best system now in the world but by over-selling it, he puts himself into a very difficult situation, which is entirely unnecessary.
Gerasimental
Member
Thank you for that input. To the extent that it is true - and I have no way of determining that - is the extent to which the EU has damned itself and its denizens to perdition.You have just described a hell wherein one could not even walk through a door: the combined MTTF of latch, of striker plate, of hinge 1, 2, 3, of wood frame, of bearing plate, of....
Why - that's a catastrophe waiting to happen! Doors are, so obviously, a deathtrap! Banish them, forsooth!
Humbug, you say? Not at all. Always consider the outlier. Always pursue reductio ad absurdum. In real life, yes, but most, most especially when delving into the Wonderful World of Regulations.
And when you are doing that, keep sight of what Mr Musk wrote not 48 hours ago: (paraphrasing) "How many more will die because you, regulators, fail to act?"
Yes. In 2012 the model S was "a computer on wheels". Now it is a considerably improved computer on wheels. That is the news that will eventually be appreciated.
Watching the relative stock performance of TSLA and MBLY today makes me imagine a headline,"Apple begins streaming content to users, Apple drops, shares of BetaMax rise."
Go figure.
Yuri_G
Member
People keep doubting this is real when there is video proof of the system working today. I don't understand the skepticism. It's only going to get way better over time, and it already works as the video demonstrates.
Are you thinking short-term options? I have been burned with IV dumps the day after earnings.
I might pick up some short-term options today/tmrw on the anticipation of a modest melt up into Wednesday afternoon and then sell.
Um, Google took a blind person through a drive-thru a few years ago already. Now their program seems stalled out. Tesla has a different approach which I think has a good chance at working but there is no guarantee. I still don't see this as a negative of any sort but you can't just assume they will get it to work.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Articles are all looking at the goal of full autonomy and missing the value of AP on steroids which will be apparent really soon.
Moderator: Inaproppriate quoted snippet from banished post... nope, the quote is gone. "Civil" means civil. And I have written already: If you have put someone on "ignore" that means you WILL ignore...which also means you have abrogated any ability to write about that person.
Moderator: Deleted content. See directly above.
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I brought AJs issues up yesterday.
#1. Pride. He's still butt-hurt over the whole riding sharing thingy and cold shoulder from Elon.
#2. He's scared of SCTY acq and cash flow. Hopefully ER helps address his fears thus freeing him to raise PT
#3. TE. He's an auto analyst. He doesn't know what to do with this line of business.
Bottom line: Firms covering TSLA really need three analysts to cover tesla moving forward.
1) auto analyst
2) Energy/utility analyst
3) "riding sharing space" analyst
CyberDutchie
Active Member
His note seems to be just a summary of the announcement, and an observation related to the NVIDIA hardware (borrowed from a different analyst). No thought really given (yet) to price target. Here is the note:
Tesla is accelerating life saving technology in its cars - a fleet that will soon (by the time of the Model 3 launch) travel 10 million miles per day. Each mile an unprecedented global application of AI/machine learning. Safety is the message. Regulators/governments are the audience.
3 key thoughts following last night's product announcements that all of its cars will be equipped with fully autonomous hardware:
1. The first to swarm. Tesla wants to equip all of its cars (including all of its Model 3 vehicles) with hardware and software capable of fully autonomous driving. This does not mean that these cars will actually be driving autonomously (at first). In fact, we reckon very few of them will be driving completely autonomously. But the development of autonomous car tech requires massive amount of data capture, compute lower and learning in a connected swarm. This development must be done in real driving conditions within as many varied environments and scenarios as possible. Even if Tesla's cars aren't actually self- driving any of the miles, the network is constantly learning. With each mile, the system can become more capable and more valuable.
2. Accelerate regulatory attention. Self driving cars may be in their infancy, but the analysis of the collected data will soon begin to surface. We see great urgency from the proponents of the technology to present the statistical outcomes of their self driving cars to regulatory bodies and governments as soon as possible. If Tesla (or any other firm) can prove that it's cars are safer than human in like-for-like driving applications by a factor of 5x, 100x or even 10,000x, this may put the regulators in a position to accelerate rule changes required for mass market commercialization. We expect such data could be conspicuously accessible to the scientific community and to the public through the velocity of social media.
3. It's all about safety. Each day, more than 100 people die in traffic related accidents in US and more than 3,500 per day globally. US Traffic fatalities are up more than 10% through 1H16, more than 3x the growth in vehicle miles traveled. We believe public health and safety implications that can be addressed by affordable safety tech will emerge as THE primary vector determining the pace of adoption. Regulators, insurance companies and consumers will all play a role. Look for Tesla management to intensify its focus on the role its company's technologies can plan in improving public safety. Traffic deaths are the #1 cause of death for people aged 15 through 24 in the US.
Tesla confirmed it is using its proprietary vision software (Tesla Vision) and is not using any 3rd party software (ie. no Mobileye).
Thoughts from our semiconductor team on the hardware implications: Nvidia / Tesla relationship drives production revenue sooner than expected (20 Oct 2016)
A significant positive for NVIDIA, (they just keep coming!), though we're still trying to unpack the details. There are still some peculiarities to the relationship - the use of a high power consumption "Titan" chip designed for extreme gaming rather than NVIDIA's autonomous driving solutions, and the fact that Tesla has hired chip designers who likely intend to do more than design hardware for NVIDIA chips. NVIDIA is in quite period and wouldn't comment on the details. So we're not sure exactly where this is going, and wouldn't be surprised to see the relationship evolve over time - but we'd expect this announcement to have a positive impact on NVIDIA's stock price, given a small but material revenue impact to 2017 #s, and more importantly clarifies potential for NVIDIA to play a role in a potentially enormous market 8-10 years from now for the central processor in the driverless car.
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Hope that with a good ER3 the momentum gained will be sufficient to cushion any downside should Q4 be suboptimal
STARR X
Member
Maybe it is because Tesla will not sell their system and MBLY is the next best option for everyone else?
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