Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Sparky]

Back in.
I sold out all my short term TSLA on the retreat from $215 after the deliveries announcement. Stop-lossed at $209.
My plan was to sit on the sidelines until after Jan and look for progress on TE and M3 test drives to spur the price.
Happy with my transfers of TSLA to FANG + NVDA over the last few weeks.
This morning, I saw the video of the self-drive and imagined in a couple of months all the test drives (self-drives?) going on where instead of frenetic hair-on-fire accels, potential customers now want to be placidly chauffered by the neural net nanny.

A company that can simultaneously satisfy id (0-60 in 2.7sec!), super-ego (safer than me driving and saving the planet!) and ego (I can take the wheel at any time) just makes me happy that I can buy their stock. And at <$198, seems a bargain. Added to NVDA also.

 

[30seconds]

And this is why the stock isn't moving.

But once the market begins to ignore the level 5 stuff and look at the tech toy the stock will move. Millions of people have some inner tech geek. Tesla should continue to be the best new new thing for a number of years going forward. The new hardware sets Tesla up to continue to exploit its software superiority it has over traditional car companies.

But there is no evidence that tesla has done the work of Google towards full automation.

Big difference is that Tesla will have production hardware in tens of thousands of cars on a worldwide basis collecting data with the new senor suite in a matter of months. This will allow them to analyze and determine how to roll-out 2.0 on an incremental basis. I am guessing that the first implementations will be more limited in geography and function and over time that the full suite of capabilities will be activated.

 

[ggr]

Um, Google took a blind person through a drive-thru a few years ago already. Now their program seems stalled out. Tesla has a different approach which I think has a good chance at working but there is no guarantee. I still don't see this as a negative of any sort but you can't just assume they will get it to work.

Are Google's cars allowed on freeways yet? I think they are speed-limited to about 45mph. Tesla just overtook them.

 

[Gerasimental]

Back in.
I sold out all my short term TSLA on the retreat from $215 after the deliveries announcement. Stop-lossed at $209.
My plan was to sit on the sidelines until after Jan and look for progress on TE and M3 test drives to spur the price.
Happy with my transfers of TSLA to FANG + NVDA over the last few weeks.
This morning, I saw the video of the self-drive and imagined in a couple of months all the test drives (self-drives?) going on where instead of frenetic hair-on-fire accels, potential customers now want to be placidly chauffered by the neural net nanny.

A company that can simultaneously satisfy id (0-60 in 2.7sec!), super-ego (safer than me driving and saving the planet!) and ego (I can take the wheel at any time) just makes me happy that I can buy their stock. And at <$198, seems a bargain. Added to NVDA also.

Misread your name as 'Spidy' and was thoroughly confused for a minute

 

[uselesslogin]

Are Google's cars allowed on freeways yet? I think they are speed-limited to about 45mph. Tesla just overtook them.

The cars Google had built are limited to 25 mph. However, for testing, they have their LIDAR on Lexus SUVs and Priuses. Those have been on the highway lots of times.

 

[uselesslogin]

You are clearly overlooking the value of AP on steroids.

Nope, sorry if I wasn't clear. Tesla is clearly the leader and this will clearly be better than AP 1.0. I'm just saying I am cautiously optimistic about level 5 and not entering the Tesla Network into any of my personal valuation models for Tesla. Honestly I won't believe level 5 until it happens.

 

[larmor]

And this is why the stock isn't moving.

But once the market begins to ignore the level 5 stuff and look at the tech toy the stock will move. Millions of people have some inner tech geek. Tesla should continue to be the best new new thing for a number of years going forward. The new hardware sets Tesla up to continue to exploit its software superiority it has over traditional car companies.

But there is no evidence that tesla has done the work of Google towards full automation.

They don't have to, some of us owners using the now old AP are feeding data to TM on a daily basis. Personally, have driven 2800 miles since delivery in mid september...

 

[Remus]

Big difference is that Tesla will have production hardware in tens of thousands of cars on a worldwide basis collecting data with the new senor suite in a matter of months. This will allow them to analyze and determine how to roll-out 2.0 on an incremental basis. I am guessing that the first implementations will be more limited in geography and function and over time that the full suite of capabilities will be activated.

That's the promise, of course. I also tend to believe that or else I won't be a long. Note all those future tense you used. It is not a done deal.

 

[Papafox]

Looking at the trading so far today, I suspect when TSLA headed towards the green not long ago it scared the *sugar" out of the shorts and they jumped in to push the SP down a bit. I'm thinking we may see a battle for 200 today because it's an important psychological number. If TSLA manages to head up and break into the green later today, that would be a bullish sign to me.

 

[30seconds]

That's the promise, of course. I also tend to believe that or else I won't be a long. Note all those future tense you used. It is not a done deal.

go look at the video again. the autopilot successfully read stop signs, made left turns with cross traffic, read red lights without a car in front, understood that cars to the left at the stop light were on a different signal, made freeway merges (on a fast freeway no less), took offramps and scanned a parking lot looking for empty spaces.

this, alread, is significantly more advanced than today's system and a more complete demonstration than I have seen from any other research level system by Google or anyone else.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Strange stock market reaction.

I always keep Andrea James' comment about how NYers don't drive in the back of my head when Tesla has AP announcements/upgrades. Everyone I know who works in NYC takes the train. Executive management may drive, but typically for work they'll taxi/uber or helicopter. Having lived in Manhattan, having a car is more of a burden/drain. Outer boroughs, less so. So when there are these amazing AP innovations, I tend to believe Wall Street (specifically) will give it a big "meh" and move on.

New car models, ER numbers, new markets, etc... Those are concrete to Wall Street, IMHO.

Now if Tesla announces they're adding private car-parks with snake chargers to store and charge your extra income making Autonomous Teslas in NYC, that will catch NYer's attention (Just summon when you need it, please give 30 minutes or so). Everyone understands real estate.

 

[Matias]

go look at the video again. the autopilot successfully read stop signs, made left turns with cross traffic, read red lights without a car in front, understood that cars to the left at the stop light were on a different signal, made freeway merges (on a fast freeway no less), took offramps and scanned a parking lot looking for empty spaces.

this, alread, is significantly more advanced than today's system and a more complete demonstration than I have seen from any other research level system by Google or anyone else.

I have to say again; that is a product demo. Video is clearly parsed from several shots.

If AP 2.0 would be that ready now, why Elon (who is always overly optimistic) would say that AP 2.0 will be ready 2018? He would say it is ready in 6 months.

I don't say that Tesla is lying. I just say that video is product demo which is made from several best case shots.

 

[Drax7]

Trying to quantify a guess estimate of upcoming eps.
Could even be borderline fantasia.

Revenues 24,500 delivered @ $100,000 $ 2,450,000,000
Cost goods sold . 75% of revenue $ 1,837,500,000
gross margin $ 612,500,000


less

R&D (same as last qtr) $ 191,000,000
SGA (same as last qtr) $ 321,000,000
Interest expense (same as last qtr) $ 48,000,000

Operating income $ 52,000,000

Shares outstanding 148,000,000
Earnings per share $.35

Every number here can be disputed, this is a simple
and even lazy guess estimate. Analyst eps average is $.07

 

[Novice]

Trying to quantify a guess estimate of upcoming eps.
Could even be borderline fantasia.

Revenues 24,500 delivered @ $100,000 $ 2,450,000,000
Cost goods sold . 75% of revenue $ 1,837,500,000
gross margin $ 612,500,000


less

R&D (same as last qtr) $ 191,000,000
SGA (same as last qtr) $ 321,000,000
Interest expense (same as last qtr) $ 48,000,000

Operating income $ 52,000,000

Shares outstanding 148,000,000
Earnings per share $.35

Every number here can be disputed, this is a simple
and even lazy guess estimate. Analyst eps average is $.07

How about a thread for everyone to guesstimate the EPS ?

 

[Remus]

They don't have to, some of us owners using the now old AP are feeding data to TM on a daily basis. Personally, have driven 2800 miles since delivery in mid september...

That again is the promise: that massive amount of real world driving data would quickly improve the DNN model used in autopilot. As we have seen that massive amount of data did improve face recognition and voice recognition.

But data alone may not be enough. Siri had a head start over Google Now and collected more user voices than Google assistant. Google's voice recognition is superior. How well Tesla can translate massive driving data to quality of the model remains to be seen.

Then there is computing power and latency. Voice recognition is often done on the cloud instead of on phone. And the voice recognition has much less data to process and much longer latency requirement. To take advantage of massive driving data, chances are the autopilot drive model needs to be huge, and forward propagation through a huge model takes time and computing power. The strict latency requirement does not really help here.

And there's detail, like when you cut infront of a car you don't know whether the other driver would accelerate to hit you. when you stop at a stop sign and a bicyclist going back and forth trying to stand, the detour sign not always clear, etc.

I believe in Elon's vision and Tesla's direction. Please do realize there will be bump on the road and there is no guarantee of any kind we can get there.

 

[Papafox]

I have to say again; that is a product demo. Video is clearly parsed from several shots.

If AP 2.0 would be that ready now, why Elon (who is always overly optimistic) would say that AP 2.0 will be ready 2018? He would say it is ready in 6 months.

I don't say that Tesla is lying. I just say that video is product demo which is made from several best case shots.

Matias, I am a huge fan of what Tesla is doing with autopilot, but I agree with you on this point. There's no telling how many takes were needed to get the video to look "just right". So, I would agree that this video is more about what the system is capable of doing when all goes well than a reliable indication of what the product will do every time. Still, I'm very impressed with the logic that has already been programmed into the product.

 

[esk8mw]

Trying to quantify a guess estimate of upcoming eps.
Could even be borderline fantasia.

Revenues 24,500 delivered @ $100,000 $ 2,450,000,000
Cost goods sold . 75% of revenue $ 1,837,500,000
gross margin $ 612,500,000


less

R&D (same as last qtr) $ 191,000,000
SGA (same as last qtr) $ 321,000,000
Interest expense (same as last qtr) $ 48,000,000

Operating income $ 52,000,000

Shares outstanding 148,000,000
Earnings per share $.35

Every number here can be disputed, this is a simple
and even lazy guess estimate. Analyst eps average is $.07

Just an FYI, outstanding shares are at 149,792,626 as of latest count (record date).

 

[NicoV]

For those complaining this was not a Model-3 part 2 event, it was absolutely one.

It was no coincidence that just before this event, it was announced that the M3 is sold out for the first year of production. Not there is another big reason than incentives to rent your place in the reservation line.

Many people ccepted that Tesla was serious on getting to automous driving. However imho probably few people believed a car with an entry price of 35k instead of 85k would be upgradeable to that. Now this has been fully confirmed. They might still doubt full level-5 will get there, but will start to accept level-4 wis realistic.

Many people will now assume that in order to get a car capable for autonomous driving in that price class, there will be no other option than a Model-3 for a long time. That will not only attract early adopters, but also open up a much wider market.

- elderly people (like my 70/80 yr old parents) who want to stay mobile, level-4 would be great for them. This is a hughe market, specially in countries with less-than-good public transport and relatively big distances whre people very much depend on mobility. This is a hughe market.

- people who only buy cars once in 5 years will hold off buying an other car and reserve their 2018 upgradeable-to-self-driving car.

So we might just have seen the a big Model-3 reservation push. The market will soon realize that delaying reserving your car now will potentially mean waiting until after 2020 for your level-4 autonomous car.

Next to that, this off course will make many MX/MS fence sitters jump.

For the record, I reserved a second model 3 this mornig. Mostly to keep my options open.

 

[electracity]

That again is the promise: that massive amount of real world driving data would quickly improve the DNN model used in autopilot. As we have seen that massive amount of data did improve face recognition and voice recognition.

But data alone may not be enough. Siri had a head start over Google Now and collected more user voices than Google assistant. Google's voice recognition is superior. How well Tesla can translate massive driving data to quality of the model remains to be seen.

Then there is computing power and latency. Voice recognition is often done on the cloud instead of on phone. And the voice recognition has much less data to process and much longer latency requirement. To take advantage of massive driving data, chances are the autopilot drive model needs to be huge, and forward propagation through a huge model takes time and computing power. The strict latency requirement does not really help here.

And there's detail, like when you cut infront of a car you don't know whether the other driver would accelerate to hit you. when you stop at a stop sign and a bicyclist going back and forth trying to stand, the detour sign not always clear, etc.

I believe in Elon's vision and Tesla's direction. Please do realize there will be bump on the road and there is no guarantee of any kind we can get there.

The new system may completely redo the mapping, which is why automatic functions will not be unavailable for several months.

 

[austinEV]

For the record, I reserved a second model 3 this mornig. Mostly to keep my options open.

I have a model 3 reservation and I am not totally sure why... I may eventually be one of the people who abandon's a reservation, but it would be to get an AP 2.0 100D model S, with optional breakfast maker and Comfy lounger™ options.