Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Bet TSLA]

I am positively giddy at the amount of profit Tesla stands to make from this if they price it right - and I'm sure they will.

Then I'm sure you will be disappointed. Tesla will not try to maximize profit. Tesla will, as is its mission, endeavor to accelerate the shift toward sustainable transport. They will use this as leverage to maximize the number of miles and and hours that people spend in an EV rather than an ICE.

Count on it.

 

[Turing]

Because other startups have been so keen to bow to regulations, aka uber, etc, while tesla remains deferential to regulatory standards. And TM starts with 222 million miles of data that can be fed into an ai engine and provided the cars made finite data observations, this can be correlated to very fine detailed maps, etc... We know this last part was all ready told to us previously.

It doesn't seem like it should take Tesla long to get ADAS systems running. Version 8 was their own software on less sensors, so running that data through more robust sensor suite should give them a good framework.

 

[Ulmo]

We have it on good authority that they originally put software limited 72A chargers in all cars, but later changed to installing 48A chargers unless you paid for the upgrade. But they will still swap your charger out for $1,900.

Interesting. This is one of the ways I'm going to save capex money on my next Tesla, despite wanting to eventually weigh getting the higher upgrade. So that will be a physical upgrade ... cool.

 

[DaveT]

Does anyone know, if MobileEye is completely out of the new AP? I think, there were some Nvidia GPUs even in the old AP, along with MobileEye HW and SW. Now, is it all Nvidia chips plus Tesla HW/SW? Or is any MobileEye component going to be there as well?

AP 2.0 has nothing from Mobileye at all.

 

[BobSk]

Probably Brian Johnson's note started the downtrend in the afternoon. Just a guess.
Why Tesla’s Autonomous Car is Bad News For Its Stock

I found this Anonymous post under that article:

"analysts are about the most short-sighted people on the planet. they look at how this will impact earnings in 1 or 2 quarters from now, but dont look beyond that to the future. this autonomous driving demonstration is nothing short of the proof that tesla will be a monster of a company in 5 years from now. who is in the lead on the coming transportation automation revolution - tesla. who does get it? wall street's analysts. i remember buying tesla at 30 when the analysts were trashing it. wish i had bought more. this time i will load up over the coming months."

In my view, analysts like Brian Johnson probably is not THAT short-sighted. They are twisting things for personal agenda.

In this case, who will buy a model S/X without advanced autopilot? who will buy the car without autonomous? Sure there may be a few exceptions, it's going to be very rare.

This is a clear case that Tesla's margin will improve going forward (assume other factors remain constant), this analyst twisted it into a reduced margin.

Also, Brian Johnson suggests investors to make a pair trade: short Tesla and long MBLY. I wouldn't be surprised to see MBLY to get a cat bounce, because there are so many manipulators looking at the charts. However, this is like after seeing Apple introduced iPhone, suggesting investors to short AAPL and long Nokia.

 

[mmd]

IMO, the iPhone analogy is not quite correct. iPhone was ready, and there was no hurdle to use it if anyone wanted. But self driving cars raise safety concerns, not just for those using it but also for others on the roadways. So, everyone weighs in.

According to David Kelly, former NHTSA administrator, regulations won't be ready for 5 years. Then who will pay for self driving feature, when neither the software nor the regulations are ready?

Regulations may tie up Tesla's Autopilot goals

 

[stealthology]

For someone who really seems like they understand things: Am I correct in assuming Hardware 2 will learn the same features as AP1 on its own (Musk says will only take ~2-3 months for parity), and not use the mapping/learnings of AP1 which was based on Mobileye's system? Thanks.

 

[Matias]

More info about AP 2.0 hardware

Tesla Self-Driving Car Built on NVIDIA DRIVE PX 2 | NVIDIA Blog

Apparently Drive PX 2 comes in multiple configurations, blog post does not tell which one Tesla uses

Autonomous Car Development Platform from NVIDIA DRIVE PX2

 

[racer26]

While it's true that true level 5 autonomy being ok'd by regulators may take a while, in most jurisdictions they're passing laws allowing autonomous cars to be used with a licensed driver in the driver's seat.

That means laws won't stop most of the features being released, save the autonomous taxi service and cross country summon.

 

[GoTslaGo]

While it's true that true level 5 autonomy being ok'd by regulators may take a while, in most jurisdictions they're passing laws allowing autonomous cars to be used with a licensed driver in the driver's seat.

That means laws won't stop most of the features being released, save the autonomous taxi service and cross country summon.

For example in Nevada (testing only at this point):

Autonomous Vehicles

Hoping to see more red license plate Teslas roaming around here...

 

[NicoV]

I found this Anonymous post under that article:

"analysts are about the most short-sighted people on the planet. they look at how this will impact earnings in 1 or 2 quarters from now, but dont look beyond that to the future. this autonomous driving demonstration is nothing short of the proof that tesla will be a monster of a company in 5 years from now. who is in the lead on the coming transportation automation revolution - tesla. who does get it? wall street's analysts. i remember buying tesla at 30 when the analysts were trashing it. wish i had bought more. this time i will load up over the coming months."

In my view, analysts like Brian Johnson probably is not THAT short-sighted. They are twisting things for personal agenda.

In this case, who will buy a model S/X without advanced autopilot? who will buy the car without autonomous? Sure there may be a few exceptions, it's going to be very rare.

This is a clear case that Tesla's margin will improve going forward (assume other factors remain constant), this analyst twisted it into a reduced margin.

Also, Brian Johnson suggests investors to make a pair trade: short Tesla and long MBLY. I wouldn't be surprised to see MBLY to get a cat bounce, because there are so many manipulators looking at the charts. However, this is like after seeing Apple introduced iPhone, suggesting investors to short AAPL and long Nokia.

Don't forget that Mobileye will provide the technology for practically every ADAS car that is not a Tesla. I wouldn't short Mobileye, they will still grow at least an order of magnitude. IT's better to compare Tesla to IOS, and Mobileye to Android. THere is a place for both, but only one of them will be the gold standard.

 

[justdoit]

@SBenson mentioned this morning that Morgan Stanley re-iterated it's underweight and same PT today, can anyone confirm? I don't think they did. Can anyone confirm?

I haven't found anything on this either.

 

[BobSk]

Don't forget that Mobileye will provide the technology for practically every ADAS car that is not a Tesla. I wouldn't short Mobileye, they will still grow at least an order of magnitude. IT's better to compare Tesla to IOS, and Mobileye to Android. THere is a place for both, but only one of them will be the gold standard.

In my view, Mobileye's future business relies on Tesla and Nvidia's mercy. That's not a good business position. If Tesla says going forward we will license Tesla's self-drive system to all brands for $0.1 per mile. Mobileye's market would be all gone overnight. Although today Tesla doesn't plan to do that, the licensing does make sense, both from business point of view, and from saving life point of view. I don't know which direction Mobileye's stock price will go, I just try to predict potential risks.

 

[Papafox]

Probably Brian Johnson's note started the downtrend in the afternoon. Just a guess.
Why Tesla’s Autonomous Car is Bad News For Its Stock

Let's hope some analyst who doesn't have a personal vendetta against Tesla refutes Brian Johnson's argument about the effect of AP 2.0 hardware on GM tomorrow. It should not be difficult.

 

[Matias]

For someone who really seems like they understand things: Am I correct in assuming Hardware 2 will learn the same features as AP1 on its own (Musk says will only take ~2-3 months for parity), and not use the mapping/learnings of AP1 which was based on Mobileye's system? Thanks.

I don't qualify to category "who really understands", but I still give my opinion

To my undestanding Neural networks are first trained in faster computer and that result is the downloaded to actuall user platform. So AP 2.0 does not learn anything by itself. Tesla uses supercomputers in mothership to train and then downloads results.

Whether data from 1.0 can be used in 2.0 I don't know. They are completely different platforms so my guess is no.

 

[Matias]

Here you can (or can't) see the new cameras

Can you spot the self-driving cameras on this Tesla Model S?

 

[stealthology]

I haven't found anything on this either.

I think some bears made it up. Hopefully Jonas has a higher liklihood of a new stance either this or next week on the company.

OT: it's kinda fun listening to the Q2 ER again after having listened to the AP2 presser. Things fall into place, some gigles make sense, etc.

 

[Tslynk67]

The beautiful part is there's no way someone can prevent me from sending my car out to pick a friend at the airport, cab drivers have no way to prevent that from happening.

Well unfortunately, a can of black aerosol paint can disable the car instantly. Without a human present to supervise, sabotage of self-driving cars is very; very easy... This is something I fear.

 

[NicoV]

Well unfortunately, a can of black aerosol paint can disable the car instantly. Without a human present to supervise, sabotage of self-driving cars is very; very easy... This is something I fear.

This is vandalism, and there are 8 cameras to record the vandal.

 

[myusername]

when you are using your vehicle for commercial purposes... you must get commercial insurance. if your car goes off by itself to pick someone up (this is 5 to 10 years away btw)... and runs over a nun because her black gown faded out into a shadow... who's at fault?... let's start with... not the nun... is it Tesla?... or you?... you're both making money off this... so could it be both?... how much will this insurance cost you?

why are we talking about this?... we were supposed to be talking about an affordable electric vehicle getting manufactured.