Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[brian45011]

On page 23:
"De-levered profile of the business with >$450mm of conversion requests received year-to-date, reducing the aggregate principal of 2018 maturities to $205mm"

To me, that seems to answer the question of "why no capital raise in Q4"? It was originally estimated that they needed to pay $411 million on their 2018 convertible notes debt. If that's now only $205mm, because the rest converted, then there's no longer a need for over $206mm of cash.

Q3 GAAP profitability is still on the table, but I'm going to hedge that it's also not likely either.

About ~$14 million in face value was converted early before 6/30/16. Another $411 million in face value gave early conversion notices between 6/30/16 and the 2Q16 10Q filed on 8/5/16. It looks like another ~$30 million in face value gave early conversion notices between 8/5/16 and 10/25/16. This leaves only $205 million in face value of the 2018 notes still outstanding. If no further early conversion notices are received, no capital to repay that obligation will be needed until May, 2018.

That $205 million (plus) shoe could drop anytime as long as the share price remains above ~$161 in 20 of the last 30 tradings of the quarters between now and May 2018. Those that have converted early probably received a VWAP of ~$225/share (for a face value equivalent of ~$125/share).

I'm surprised no one is discussing the SCTY convertibles as a good play if the merger succeeds. FINRA shows them trading around a 15-21% discount to par.

 

[techmaven]

Best he make that statement now, since it won't be true shortly.

It's not even true today. Panasonic makes most of the batteries.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's not even true today. Panasonic makes most of the batteries.

See! I said it wouldn't be true shortly.

 

[techmaven]

Well, Bob Lutz came out of hibernation and bad mouthed Tesla on CNBC:
Ex-GM vice chair blasts Tesla, saying supporters 'like members of a religious cult'

He's a great indicator of the bottom when he talks dirty about Tesla in public.

 

[W84M3]

Well, Bob Lutz came out of hibernation and bad mouthed Tesla on CNBC:
Ex-GM vice chair blasts Tesla, saying supporters 'like members of a religious cult'

He's a great indicator of the bottom when he talks dirty about Tesla in public.

My God. The narrative, that Tesla loses money on every car they make, lives on. Yeah, rehashing the same old BS goes to show the naysayers are about to implode.

 

[Krugerrand]

My God. The narrative, that Tesla loses money on every car they make, lives on. Yeah, rehashing the same old BS goes to show the naysayers are about to implode.

It's the lack of originality and creativity that disappoints me. Put some effort into it for God's sake!

 

[Novice]

My God. The narrative, that Tesla loses money on every car they make, lives on. Yeah, rehashing the same old BS goes to show the naysayers are about to implode.

The more the BS and naysaying the better. It will create a phenomenal impact when the results come out positive and result in a dynamite for the shorts

 

[dennis]

Well, Bob Lutz came out of hibernation and bad mouthed Tesla on CNBC:
Ex-GM vice chair blasts Tesla, saying supporters 'like members of a religious cult'

He's a great indicator of the bottom when he talks dirty about Tesla in public.

How come Bob Putz never talks about how well his companies Via Motors and VLF Automotive are doing? Probably because they aren't doing well...

 

[generalenthu]

I'm surprised no one is discussing the SCTY convertibles as a good play if the merger succeeds. FINRA shows them trading around a 15-21% discount to par.

Do you know if it is available on IB. Couldn't find it in a contract search

 

[dennis]

My God. The narrative, that Tesla loses money on every car they make, lives on. Yeah, rehashing the same old BS goes to show the naysayers are about to implode.

I suspect we will have bears mistakenly (or deliberately) comparing GAAP loss in Q3 to non-GAAP losses in prior quarters.

 

[FluxCap]

Well, Bob Lutz came out of hibernation and bad mouthed Tesla on CNBC:
Ex-GM vice chair blasts Tesla, saying supporters 'like members of a religious cult'

He's a great indicator of the bottom when he talks dirty about Tesla in public.

More evidence that the fantasy that GM will legitimately commit to BEV's before being on the bankruptcy chopping block again is simply ridiculous.

 

[FluxCap]

Price action is really unstable this morning. Looks like low volume to me, perhaps the big players are trying to stay out of the action today?

It's going to be a wild, wild night.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

More evidence that the fantasy that GM will legitimately commit to BEV's before being on the bankruptcy chopping block again is simply ridiculous.

Bob Lutz is a dinosaur clinging on to the last vestiges of his perceived relevance. He was one of the top executives at GM as they rolled in to bankruptcy.

 

[Ulmo]

Forbes: "You know sentiment is shifting against Tesla when savvy short sellers like Jim Chanos join the fray." He joined 3 years ago: so we should be safe.

Bob Lutz is a dinosaur clinging on to the last vestiges of his perceived relevance. He was one of the top executives at GM as they rolled in to bankruptcy.

He probably held short options on his own company.

 

[FredTMC]

SCTY just spiked up... on high vol. news?

 

[Gerasimental]

What just happened at SCTY?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Looks like some serious activity with weekly options.

 

[tander]

Well, Bob Lutz came out of hibernation and bad mouthed Tesla on CNBC:
Ex-GM vice chair blasts Tesla, saying supporters 'like members of a religious cult'

He's a great indicator of the bottom when he talks dirty about Tesla in public.

I wonder if he actually believes what he's saying.

 

[brian45011]

Anything interesting here from your perspective?

Not really. It's just a summary of what was in the S-4 (plus the Panasonic announcement) for the consulting firms that advise institutions on proxy voting. Virtually no quantitative information on the synergies--guess we'll get some on Nov. 1.

 

[esk8mw]

OK. locked and loaded some short term calls to prepare for earnings.

Oct 28 - 207.50 strike
Nov 4 - 205 strike

Still holding December 230 strike calls from a month back.