Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tander]

What just happened at SCTY?

Maybe people finally started reading the 425 filing. Page 24.

That means they brought in about a lot more (edit: not as clear as I'd like to be on that number) cash last quarter from sales rather than leases, and that they were GAAP positive or will be soon. Correct me if I'm wrong someone, otherwise I will be backing up the truck.

Edit: I think it means a 5x increase in the ratio between cash/loan and leases/ppa not a 5x increase in cash/loan sales, that would be too good to be true.

 

[vgrinshpun]

OK. locked and loaded some short term calls to prepare for earnings.

Oct 28 - 207.50 strike
Nov 4 - 205 strike

Still holding December 230 strike calls from a month back.

I bought Nov4 $205 - $215 and $210-$220 call spreads during the morning dip.

 

[larmor]

View attachment 200182
Maybe people finally started reading the 425 filing. Page 24.

That means they brought in about 125M cash last quarter from sales rather than leases, and that they were GAAP positive or will be soon. Correct me if I'm wrong someone, otherwise I will be backing up the truck.

Is the truck going to the ship, better hurry before the ship leaves....

 

[brian45011]

Do you know if it is available on IB. Couldn't find it in a contract search

You can find the CUSIPs on FINRA.org. At Fidelity you have to call the fixed income desk to enter an order.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I bought Nov4 $205 - $215 and $210-$220 call spreads during the morning dip.

Executed another parcel of Nov4 $205-$215 call spread on a dip. Average price between two executed orders $3.33

 

[LST]

Some guy in Germany is selling his claimed Signature X for 240k€ (!?). This looks like a opportunist that has lost all touch with reality, but to me it raises a question. The car is claimed to be 03/2016 which would put it into Q1 where I'm fairly sure there were 0 EU deliveries. Or am I missing something?

PS Autotechnik Inh. René Scholz in Eggersdorf

Really strange, on top of that, they claim that the MX is equipped with: fully autonomous driving
Misleading at best, unlawful at worst.

 

[Tenable]

Has anyone purchased protection going into tonight? If so, I'd be interested to hear what you put into play.

 

[vgrinshpun]

One thing that I did not see anybody mentioning about the 425 is the description of the Hawaii Case Study on p.14. According to this description it is on track for "substantial completion by the end of 2016", which means that 52MWh worth of PowerPacks are going to be booked in Q4.

Given schedule for the Mira Loma Substation installation of 80MWh worth of PowerPacks by the end of the year, the total TE sales in Q4 will be at least 132MWh. Assuming discount pricing of $400kWh (11% discount) and cost of $240/kWh, the TE contribution to gross profit in Q4 should be about $21MM

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Has anyone purchased protection going into tonight? If so, I'd be interested to hear what you put into play.

No. When I dive in I throw caution to the wind.

 

[LST]

Has anyone purchased protection going into tonight? If so, I'd be interested to hear what you put into play.

Yes, cash at hand, to buy more shares. As good as the ER might or will be, the bears will find something to spin it negatively, SP plunges in AH, so extended Sale on TSLA. If not, thats also OK with me. Just chillin.

 

[tander]

Has anyone purchased protection going into tonight? If so, I'd be interested to hear what you put into play.

My protection is SCTY 2019 LEAPS.

 

[stealthology]

Prelude, BofA has always been negative on Tesla. Comments/interpretation?

(08:12:09 AM): Revising estimates on return closer to GAAP accounting As noted in its 3Q deliveries press release, TSLA is revising aspects of its accounting presentation, the most significant changes being that TSLA is (1) now moving back to GAAP accounting for leased vehicles (roughly 1/3 of vehicles), and (2) no longer adding back non-cash interest expense (roughly 75% of total interest expense). For further detail on TSLA's revised accounting methodology, As a result of the change in accounting presentation, we are revising our 3Q16 EPS estimate from $0.50 to $(0.65), 2016e from $(0.10) to $(3.85), 2017e from $1.75 to $(2.25), and 2018e from $3.05 to $(0.35). We would note that 3Q reporting may be particularly volatile for the stock, as consensus estimates do not appear to fully reflect this accounting change yet. The new accounting method does not alter cash flow (which is reported on a GAAP basis), and, as such, we are not revising our price objective of $155 - TSLA at Bofa ML - 3Q earnings may be OK, but eyes still on cash burn

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

If I'm reading Dough.com correctly, the market is pricing in a move for TSLA to end somewhere between ~$188 and $216 at the end of this week.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Prelude, BofA has always been negative on Tesla. Comments/interpretation?

(08:12:09 AM): Revising estimates on return closer to GAAP accounting As noted in its 3Q deliveries press release, TSLA is revising aspects of its accounting presentation, the most significant changes being that TSLA is (1) now moving back to GAAP accounting for leased vehicles (roughly 1/3 of vehicles), and (2) no longer adding back non-cash interest expense (roughly 75% of total interest expense). For further detail on TSLA's revised accounting methodology, As a result of the change in accounting presentation, we are revising our 3Q16 EPS estimate from $0.50 to $(0.65), 2016e from $(0.10) to $(3.85), 2017e from $1.75 to $(2.25), and 2018e from $3.05 to $(0.35). We would note that 3Q reporting may be particularly volatile for the stock, as consensus estimates do not appear to fully reflect this accounting change yet. The new accounting method does not alter cash flow (which is reported on a GAAP basis), and, as such, we are not revising our price objective of $155 - TSLA at Bofa ML - 3Q earnings may be OK, but eyes still on cash burn

I was under impression that revenue from third party leasing is recognized at the time of sales, the deferred revenue linked only to direct leasing, which, if I remember correctly Tesla expected to be around 15% in Q3. So it seems that BofA are just plain wrong on this.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

So BofA is expecting a substantial GAAP loss of ($0.65) so if TSLA were to show GAAP profit it would be a shocker. Btw can someone gather what the consensus estimate is and what the variance in it is and how is that computed at all, how many are using non-GAAP numbers and how many GAAP?

 

[30seconds]

I think Tesla now also has a pretty interesting sales opportunity with the upgrade paths. A 60D is ~$63,000 (w/ Fed tax credit), but you can later upgrade to 75 or to full self-driving for 10k each. Really is different (not to mention allows Tesla to make a lot of money on trade-ins).

 

[sub]

If I'm reading Dough.com correctly, the market is pricing in a move for TSLA to end somewhere between ~$188 and $216 at the end of this week.

Just add together pice of ATM call/put and you have your expected maket move. You probably know this but others may not.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Just add together pice of ATM call/put and you have your expected maket move. You probably know this but others may not.

There are several ways to make a rough calculation. Here's a more complicated but I would think more accurate way:
Calculating Expected Move | tastytrade | a real financial network

 

[SBenson]

Ps. MitchJi, you labelled this "funny". What is your point? You do agree, that SEC -rules also concern Elon? I don't believe he gave them any material information privately.

Mitch has a funny habit of marking a lot of posts funny. He does that to me all the time. Very interesting sense of humor.

 

[FredTMC]

Just add together pice of ATM call/put and you have your expected maket move. You probably know this but others may not.

I didn't know that... thx.

So, for example, the current weekly ATM call & put price added together is roughly 12... so expected move is +/- 12 points, correct?