stealthology
Member
Maybe because it appears you are seemingly bullish on Tesla, but upon further inspection of your posts that is questionable?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Maybe because it appears you are seemingly bullish on Tesla, but upon further inspection of your posts that is questionable?
I don't usually like to buy options because of the time decay, but a good ER doesn't seem to be priced in at all. There has not been a rise going into today like we usually see. So tempted, but also feeling confused.... 
And I question the questionability?
stealthology
Member
That's up to regular readers on here to determine. I certainly am confident of my statement. It's not that easy to fool people on here, lol. However, you do provoke good discussion so all is well.
Last edited:
The price action today makes me feel like I'm living in a Tesla driving TMC reading bubble. Is there something I'm missing? It seems like this ER is staring everyone in the face as a slum dunk. Yet here we sit at 201 with the stock moving down slightly mid day. I'm positively flummoxed.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ya... Seems like a lot of unknowns need to get answered/resolved.
This'll be the most interesting/dynamic ER/EC in a long time.
Food for thought:
There is a subtle difference in being long vs being or feeling bullish
(stocks don't keep going up all the time. nor should you have to feel that the stock will always go up in the next move).
A second related thought, there is a subtle difference between long term bullish and short term bullish
(one could be bullish on one but not the other)
Third related thought, echo chambers are not for everyone
(one doesn't need to agree with everything management does or other longs say)
So figured out the right box to put me in now??
Me too, I keep wondering why the consensus is so negative. To me there are tsunami waves on the horizon (smaller than the first one). Part of it is they've kind of let the narrative play out that SCTY is this big cloud hanging over things (remember when Musk and Rive used to get on CNBC and stuff to refute things, they haven't done that this time around). And a lot of the positive indicators for the merger/financials, can be interpreted as negative. Remember the Musk can't control his companies/SCTY bailout type headlines? Even the really good analysts that have done their homework are sort of sitting on the sidelines, being conservative, waiting for the green light, which it sure seems like the next week ought to be. We've got even the perma bulls of TMC sittings around saying I dunno about that SCTY thing. I guess if you want to start a tsunami, it has more impact if people are standing on the beach and watching the water recede, saying there's no tsunami, there isn't even enough water for waves. Then they start seeing that receding water piling into big waves and instead of being up on the hill saying yep here it comes, they are running for the hills saying oh man that came out of nowhere.
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm not convinced this ER will be all that dynamic. I think the apparent market suggestion is that the ER may not cause that much movement either way. Given the generally poor sentiment about TSLA/SCTY, even a surprise ER seems unlikely to shake up the SP all that much. Maybe a slight bump? Unfortunately, a win may not feel like a win again this time. I may be wrong though!
Now I'm trying to figure out which box to put you in. That way I can basically ignore all the content of your posts and just go with the box definition.
I'd be fool-proof at that point!!
On a slightly different note. For some reason I've been unable to load the number of shares available to short on IB for TSLA and SCTY. I assume this is some sort of universal issue, as I can still load many other companies. Is anyone else able to see the numbers?
racer26
Active Member
I think this analogy is exactly the reaction Elon's been courting for the last 3 months.
He's seen that fighting back against the shorts constantly without refuting their underlying thesis with hard, undeniable facts doesn't work.
So now he's given them way more than enough rope to hang themselves, with all these ideas of nerfed margins and SCTY being a boondoggle, before he's about to wallop them with the truth bombs this week.
Here is a funny article title
This 84-year-old car guy blasts Elon Musk and Tesla, five ways
My immediate reaction. Well, great. This guy will be dead soon. And we don't have to worry about him.
This 84-year-old car guy blasts Elon Musk and Tesla, five ways
My immediate reaction. Well, great. This guy will be dead soon. And we don't have to worry about him.
Could just be the bears are being louder than usual. Chanos was on cnbc yesterday crapping on tesla. Bob lutz was on cnbc today saying tesla does worse the more cars it sells and is headed for bankruptcy, ect.
Last edited:
racer26
Active Member
The insane part is that the BS these guys say is easily refuted. Tesla has some of the highest margins in the auto industry. Tesla just patently does not lose money on every car. Not even close.
sub
Active Member
Yes, though Johnathans link to tasty trade explains they modify those numbers slightly. If you look at it from the "efficient market" perspective, that number (put/call ATM value) is the market consensus of expected move.
If anyone disagrees with my description feel free to correct.
Are you suggesting the TMC consensus is negative, or analysts? I think a lot of TMC members are just quietly concluding that this is likely to be positive, in some way, to some degree and just aren't talking about it much. It was really only ever Julian that wrote 1000 word essays 3 times a day about how everyone should buy buy buy. (disclosure, I miss his essays).
In ye olden times we would use this space to trade Bullish tirades but bull fatigue set in long ago.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Cool. Looks like your simple formula is a fairly accurate measure of the expected move. I saw news clips today that the move is expected to be 6%. That's good enough for me!
sub
Active Member
They know that we (informed investors) know that, they are not talking to us. They are talking to the 99% that don't make the effort to know the facts and get their truth from news headlines.
Easy way to confirm what they do works is to start a Tesla conversation at the local coffee shop. You most likely will be the only participant not repeating the lies as fact. I've suffered through a few of these conversations, I try to avoid at all costs now.
Reddit: The new Powerwall to be displayed and sold in stores this week.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
