Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[stealthology]

The battle of 200 continues.

 

[jesselivenomore]

How will discontinuing the use of non-gaap revenues affect non-gaap earnings? It seems that Wall st estimates have not taken this change into account, in fact estimates have crept up over the past weeks to 0.09 now.

It would be great if those posting in the earnings thread could comment on this. Schonelucht, fallenone, techmaven etc. Does your estimates take into account the use of gaap revenues for non-gaap earnings?

edit: this should not impact gaap earnings estimates or cash flow. But will affect the headline beat or miss of non gaap earnings, which could trigger an initial reaction.

 

[Turing]

Are you suggesting the TMC consensus is negative, or analysts? I think a lot of TMC members are just quietly concluding that this is likely to be positive, in some way, to some degree and just aren't talking about it much. It was really only ever Julian that wrote 1000 word essays 3 times a day about how everyone should buy buy buy. (disclosure, I miss his essays).

In ye olden times we would use this space to trade Bullish tirades but bull fatigue set in long ago.

This is actually a bullish indicator imo. I remember the general consensus on this forum was pretty fatigued in February of this year when we hit $150 and then $140s. I was rushing to buy leaps back then as we knew a wave of positive announcements was around the corner with TE and model 3 reveal.

 

[tander]

Are you suggesting the TMC consensus is negative, or analysts? I think a lot of TMC members are just quietly concluding that this is likely to be positive, in some way, to some degree and just aren't talking about it much. It was really only ever Julian that wrote 1000 word essays 3 times a day about how everyone should buy buy buy. (disclosure, I miss his essays).

In ye olden times we would use this space to trade Bullish tirades but bull fatigue set in long ago.

Good points with the fatigue, and the nonvocal majority. TMC consensus is clearly voting for the merger according to the survey thread, but I wonder how many are for it and how many are just voting as instructed but still kind of thinking they don't like it or not sure about it, that would be interesting to know, maybe you are right though and it's just the nonvocal majority. The thing I'm surprised by though is the analysts, you'd think they of all people ought to see the big picture but instead they seem to be on the sidelines. Oh well it will get figured out eventually.

 

[racer26]

Reddit: The new Powerwall to be displayed and sold in stores this week.

Not just reddit, but reddit user "ElonsVelvetJacket" who has leaked several of the bigger news stories over the summer (60kWh MX, 2 year leasing, discontinuing of titanium and solid white colors)

 

[BobSk]

Not just reddit, but reddit user "ElonsVelvetJacket" who has leaked several of the bigger news stories over the summer (60kWh MX, 2 year leasing, discontinuing of titanium and solid white colors)

I am 90% sure ElonsVeletJacket is Elon himself.

 

[Value Ev]

I'm surprised by though is the analysts, you'd think they of all people ought to see the big picture but instead they seem to be on the sidelines. Oh well it will get figured out eventually.

No surprise at the analysts. They do see a bigger picture, it just may not be the same picture that fans on TMC see, or want to see.

 

[austinEV]

Reddit: The new Powerwall to be displayed and sold in stores this week.

Did the GF start making cells and I missed it? Powerwall 2 uses GF cells right? Or is the idea that they will be installing dummies in stores and taking reservations?

 

[dmckinstry]

No surprise at the analysts. They do see a bigger picture, it just may not be the same picture that fans on TMC see, or want to see.

I'm just hoping that we see a rare event "Hold the rumors, buy the news". We'll have an idea by the end of tomorrow.

 

[austinEV]

I am 90% sure ElonsVeletJacket is Elon himself.

You are perilously close to breaking the poetry ban on that one.

 

[stealthology]

Reddit: The new Powerwall to be displayed and sold in stores this week.

Probably reading too much into this, but why would this leak a couple hours before earnings? I assume they'd talk about this in the conference call today.

Two views on this: 1) insiders trying to just push out as much good news as possible to help SP, or 2) insiders hinting of good things to come. Again, likely reading too much into this.

 

[SuperDragon]

Energy storage might make tesla more money then the cars in the long run

 

[Value Ev]

I'm just hoping that we see a rare event "Hold the rumors, buy the news". We'll have an idea by the end of tomorrow.

Darn. I was going to use that line this morning

 

[austinEV]

How will discontinuing the use of non-gaap revenues affect non-gaap earnings? It seems that Wall st estimates have not taken this change into account, in fact estimates have crept up over the past weeks to 0.09 now.

It would be great if those posting in the earnings thread could comment on this. Schonelucht, fallenone, techmaven etc. Does your estimates take into account the use of gaap revenues for non-gaap earnings?

edit: this should not impact gaap earnings estimates or cash flow. But will affect the headline beat or miss of non gaap earnings, which could trigger an initial reaction.

Jessie could you explain your concern? Is the new accounting method going to create confusion when published?

 

[Value Ev]

Probably reading too much into this, but why would this leak a couple hours before earnings? I assume they'd talk about this in the conference call today.

Two views on this: 1) insiders trying to just push out as much good news as possible to help SP, or 2) insiders hinting of good things to come. Again, likely reading too much into this.

You mean it may be an evil long trying to manipulate the stock? Lol.

 

[Turing]

Energy storage might make tesla more money then the cars in the long run

It's certainly a lot easier to scale.

 

[MP3Mike]

Did the GF start making cells and I missed it? Powerwall 2 uses GF cells right? Or is the idea that they will be installing dummies in stores and taking reservations?

We'll find out Friday right? (And hadn't we heard rumor that Powerwall 2 uses Samsung cells?)

 

[Tenable]

Edit: I'm annoyed w/ CNBC and this post provides no value. Deleted.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Jessie could you explain your concern? Is the new accounting method going to create confusion when published?

The consensus earnings estimates right now of 0.09 is non-gaap, and from what I can tell, using non-gaap revenues(which tesla has historically used). Meanwhile Tesla stated in the deliveries note that they will no longer be using non-gaap revenues in their non-gaap earnings reporting. BoA this morning seems to be one of the only firms taking this into account and adjusted their non-gaap earnings estimates for Q3 from a positive 0.5 to -0.65. No one else has done this and is contributing to the 0.09 current estimates. Whether Tesla beats or misses this estimate, either way it does not seem to be an apples to apples comparison if the estimates are using non-gaap revenues and Tesla is reporting with gaap revenues.

 

[justdoit]

I'm not convinced this ER will be all that dynamic. I think the apparent market suggestion is that the ER may not cause that much movement either way. Given the generally poor sentiment about TSLA/SCTY, even a surprise ER seems unlikely to shake up the SP all that much. Maybe a slight bump? Unfortunately, a win may not feel like a win again this time. I may be wrong though!

I feel the exact same way. TSLA is just in a weird position right now and it'll take multiple good quarters and seamless SCTY integration to move into a solid up trend.