Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I'm not worried about Trump. There is a decent chance he wins but after an immediate selloff I truly believe we see a rally like no other. Would prefer Hillary but whatever....

 

[Turing]

That's exactly what this release and call had to say:

SCTY is cashflow positive, and in control of the debt its carrying - in addition, most of its debt is non-recourse, and therefore not a big deal.
They stated that joining with TSLA's worldwide banking partners, the experience of both TSLA and SCTY can be leveraged to get better financing terms for both companies operations.

If you can't see that in the release, you're simply not reading.

Not to mention, the premise that the analysts just want more financial detail is suspect, why did they waste so many questions on superfluous things like what happens to renewals for SCTY customer after 20 years if they choose a solar roof or what is the arrival of equipment rate at the buffalo factory?

 

[dc_h]

Wow, terrible call. Seemed like both sides were speaking over each other's heads.

I think Elon is approaching the SCTY acquisition as mainly a product move... meaning, a move toward an integrated solar generation and storage product. To him in the bigger picture, it makes sense and it's the right thing to do. However, analysts are looking at the SCTY acquisition mainly through a financial risk lens... wanting concrete numbers so they can understand the risk better. They view TSLA as a risky company/stock already, and they want to know how this acquisition affects the challenges and risks ahead for TSLA.

Tesla has chosen to give generalized numbers, but they aren't detailed enough to be credible for analysts. Analysts don't care much about how great an integrated solar/storage product will be. They'd rather have a 100-page detailed document deconstructing every portion of SCTY debt positions in an objective manner. But it doesn't look like they're going to get that.

I think Jason could have done more speaking. I think the word ACCRETIVE to earnings and a date would have done a lot. The product vision is not the sustainable attribute to Wall St, it is the financial model. Elon knows he can make a better mousetrap and he can market and lead the world to that mousetrap. Wall Street wants to know that he can sell it at a profit. I think the report shows that, but saying the merger will add $1.00 per share to free cash flow in 2017 and add to earnings, was needed on this call.

Also, I was not expecting, but wishing that he would have affirmed 25,000 car guidance for Q4, and just throw it in at the end, and hang up. The Q3 pie seemed to have missed, and a pie in the face needs to be a surprise to really be effective. Hint Elon, if you are planning some pie tossing, don't tell anyone til its in the air.

 

[ggr]

One thing that stood out for me during the call was that someone said "The NPV of the payments on the currently installed panels is about $2B more than what is owed on them." I take this to mean that SCTY assets alone are worth $2B. Their market cap is $1.9B at close today. I can only conclude that SCTY is underpriced .

 

[nienco2]

Well my minds been changed. I assumed TSLA would be up if the merger was voted down. But after hearing the response, or the stupefied non response?, regarding a plan B I'm not so sure. Certainly made it sound like TE doesn't have much value without the synergy coupled with SCTY.

 

[Value Ev]

Elon does not care about the stock price more than what's needed in order to get things done. Money is not the end game here, it's merely a tool in the tool box.

Actually, if you read about what he said in the Mars Mission interviews, he views that his role in Tesla is mainly about money since he needs that to make us an interplanetary species which is his overriding goal.

""The objective is to become a spacefaring civilization and a multiplanet species," the billionaire entrepreneur said, adding that doing so will make humanity far less susceptible to extinction. "The main reason I'm personally accumulating assets is to fund this."

 

[racer26]

For those keeping track - TSLA is now 5.6% below where it was before a surprise profitable ER that constituted a beat on basically every metric.

 

[Bgarret]

Palate cleanser. The answer to the question is, "Yes."

Will electric cars turn the world upside down?

 

[racer26]

One thing that stood out for me during the call was that someone said "The NPV of the payments on the currently installed panels is about $2B more than what is owed on them." I take this to mean that SCTY assets alone are worth $2B. Their market cap is $1.9B at close today. I can only conclude that SCTY is underpriced .

Not to mention cash on hand, and the $1B they're going to add to the balance sheet in 2017.

SCTY valuation is completely Looney Tunes. If you want to argue that TSLAs is crazy high for their output (and it arguably is) - SCTY is barely trading at what its assets net of liabilites on those assets alone are worth.

 

[30seconds]

The backing structure may be mechanical, not electrical. It looks to me like the male conductors plug into female receptacles in the tile above:

? Look like electrical plugs to me

 

[trils0n]

I absolutely have to re-listen to the CC but I'd like someone to confirm what my ears heard:

===> the TE roof tiles are NOT normal tempered glass but are automobile glass. <====

If this is true, then two important points immediately come to mind:

1. Those who have been surmising that the in-glass louvers discussed in the PV tiles may be correct in their thinking they will make their way to the Model 3 windshields and possibly other windows. For HUD activities, for window blacking, and more.

2. However.....

...at Friday's Universal Studio's reveal, we heard that the tiles were made out of "quartz glass". That means SiO2 as opposed to sodium-lime (still mostly silicate but also about 22-27% MgO, CaO and esp. Na2O). On the other other other hand, though, we don't know exactly what he means by "quartz" - the lab chemist in me doesn't think he means pure fused silica, because I remember the concept of "affordability" also was playing a part....

This was the most interesting part of the call to me. Did they say Tesla Glass experience making automotive glass was contributing to the roof product? I want to know more, and feel like it was something important that kind of got glossed over. Anyone know about what time in the call they discussed this so I can go listen again?

 

[Atlantis]

Seeing from Europe, here, would not be possible that the ones who are selling TSLA stocks are doing that more because some pools are now giving strength to an Trump election? Trump as President would be an important road-bump for all sustainable technologies.

And I would not put politics here, but seeing all this mess from here, I don't understand (and most of my friends either) why so many american people can't see that, if Clinton seems to be a product of a political system that they tired of, Trump will not correct this system, he will trade it by a corporate system. I'm afraid that american people can't see that, if they vote to Clinton, then they will be able to correct that four years from now if she doesn't do a good work, but if they vote for Trump, they will no more able to correct that four years from now because US Democracy will going to be a propriety of corporations.

In the case of Tesla and all clean energy industries being slowed down by a Trump administration, this can bring some few little job vantages for fossil fuel industries and monopolistic industries in the very short term, but in the medium and long term, as other biggest economic powers will invest massively in clean industries, the US industry will loose know how, competitiveness and eventually a lot of jobs!
Maybe, that's some analysts and stock holders are afraid of, and why they are selling TSLA stocks.

 

[Value Ev]

Also, I was not expecting, but wishing that he would have affirmed 25,000 car guidance for Q4, and just throw it in at the end, and hang up. The Q3 pie seemed to have missed, and a pie in the face needs to be a surprise to really be effective. Hint Elon, if you are planning some pie tossing, don't tell anyone til its in the air.

Affirming what you said just one month ago is hardly throwing a pie in anyones face, it is throwing a nothing burger.

Now, if he said, "I was wrong, we are going to deliver 28k cars, Model 3 reservations have topped 600k and we already have 1000 orders for Powerwall 2", that would be serious pie.

 

[FredTMC]

Not to mention, the premise that the analysts just want more financial detail is suspect, why did they waste so many questions on superfluous things like what happens to renewals for SCTY customer after 20 years if they choose a solar roof or what is the arrival of equipment rate at the buffalo factory?

Because he's unqualified. He's an auto analyst

 

[Irishjugg]

Well my minds been changed. I assumed TSLA would be up if the merger was voted down. But after hearing the response, or the stupefied non response?, regarding a plan B I'm not so sure. Certainly made it sound like TE doesn't have much value without the synergy coupled with SCTY.

I think that's quite a stretch.

At some point, the Tesla model solar city principals just have to be flabbergasted that some people still think the merger won't go through.

 

[electracity]

Two disappointing things to me at the end of the call:

1. There is clearly no "Plan B" if the acquisition fails. Hopefully, it just means it's already in the bag. However, the responses sounded befuddled and confused, as if there is no possibility of it not going through. It just sounded like they weren't well prepared for the question.

2. The reason the Tesla solar roof will succeed where other have failed is because of "attention to detail" and "it wasn't beautiful." I don't know jack about why others have failed, so maybe Elon's right. However, again, it seemed like a very predictable question that I would have thought they would have a home run answer already prepared.

Overall, it was much more informative than the written release, but I don't think it's going to change many minds one way or the other.

Musk already "hit the home run" when he showed to new solar roofs on friday. The look of those roofs are far better looking than any other produced. They will sell more than they can make if the cost isn't outlandish.

But unlike the new powerwall, Tesla likely has many hurdles to clear before the new solar products are successful commercial products. To hang the success of the solarcity merger on a new product at the midpoint of a development cycle is extraordinary.

 

[electracity]

Darn it! Now I have to spend the night trying to convince the wife to buy more shares. It ain't going to be easy! Gotta wipe the pie off my face first.

Remember you are a "counter-indicator". Let us know what you do so we can do the opposite

 

[Turing]

Well my minds been changed. I assumed TSLA would be up if the merger was voted down. But after hearing the response, or the stupefied non response?, regarding a plan B I'm not so sure. Certainly made it sound like TE doesn't have much value without the synergy coupled with SCTY.

As others have mentions, that they haven't seriously considered what happens if the deal doesn't go through at this point is proof that they are convinced beyond reasonable doubt that Elon has the institutional backing necessary and the deal will go through. If they weren't sure at this point they would be adapting to a failed merger contingency.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Solar has always been a losing proposition on the stock market. My money is on this changing.

 

[Value Ev]

Hence the Silevo cells will outperform your cheap poly panel even without the cooling airflow underneath them.

.

However, Musk announced that these panels will be less efficient than solar panels by 2%