racer26
Active Member
Who is selling SCTY below 18.70 after Elon just said that the early votes are overwhelmingly in favor? I'll tell you who - people who don't understand basic math.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Interesting call. To me it seems like the market is in some kind of "I'll believe it when I see it mode", which I suppose is how it's been with Tesla from the very start. At some point in the not too distant future, maybe not until level 5 autonomy, the Tesla network and the mission to Mars has been launched, people will actually start believing that when Elon says he intends to do something he will do it.
Two disappointing things to me at the end of the call:
1. There is clearly no "Plan B" if the acquisition fails. Hopefully, it just means it's already in the bag. However, the responses sounded befuddled and confused, as if there is no possibility of it not going through. It just sounded like they weren't well prepared for the question.
2. The reason the Tesla solar roof will succeed where other have failed is because of "attention to detail" and "it wasn't beautiful." I don't know jack about why others have failed, so maybe Elon's right. However, again, it seemed like a very predictable question that I would have thought they would have a home run answer already prepared.
Overall, it was much more informative than the written release, but I don't think it's going to change many minds one way or the other.
1. There is clearly no "Plan B" if the acquisition fails. Hopefully, it just means it's already in the bag. However, the responses sounded befuddled and confused, as if there is no possibility of it not going through. It just sounded like they weren't well prepared for the question.
2. The reason the Tesla solar roof will succeed where other have failed is because of "attention to detail" and "it wasn't beautiful." I don't know jack about why others have failed, so maybe Elon's right. However, again, it seemed like a very predictable question that I would have thought they would have a home run answer already prepared.
Overall, it was much more informative than the written release, but I don't think it's going to change many minds one way or the other.
Ulmo
Active Member
This triggered the current AH trend. Will this give us less arb or more arb?
3Victoria
Active Member
I have to agree with DaveT ... Tesla needs to layout the business plan in detail. Simply: SC has control over its debt, and a steady source of income, including cash. Joining with Tesla makes renewing any financing easier. The combined company is much more efficient in terms of managing and combined resources. (( The 'in addition, we got great product coming down the pipe' is icing, but not the cake.))
I'm of the opinion that unless there is some phenomenal volume that most or all after hours trades are small, retail investors.
Mike
3Victoria
Active Member
racer26
Active Member
1. Don't need a Plan B when you already know its in the bag. Did anything in that call sound like the Rives, Elon, and Wheeler don't ALREADY think the companies are as good as merged? If there was any chance of it not happening, they would be far more speculative about what they were saying, qualifying statements with "if the merger is successful, ...". I agree they should have been better prepared for the question, but only because they can't say that they already know its going to go through - that would be material information.
2. Have you seen the Dow solar shingle that was discontinued that people keep pointing to as an example of how its been tried before and failed, and seen Tesla Solar Tiles? They're not even kind of in the same league on aesthetics. Elon is 100% correct - they sold like garbage not because they were bad at being solar panels, but because the interconnecting wasn't well thought out and therefore expensive to implement, and because they were ugly.
dc_h
Active Member
3 weeks of production, after planned (signaled in april) shutdown for April 2.0 and shipping of all cars internationally. The only USA cars delivered in October were likely inventory or in transit.
They probably could have handled the question better, but they really don't want to give investors the impression that voting no to the merger is a good idea. If they sell a plan B to the investors, that will increase the amount of investors who vote no.
I thought there was some good information:
- It combines the best of Panasonic and Silevo, to make a very compelling solar cell design
- It uses low cost materials and very economic production processes (at scale)
- It cuts out a bunch of middle men.
- The production equipment is basically ordered, or in the process of being ordered. Including Panasonic in the design-work won't delay the launch materially.
Previously, I have discounted the solar aspect of the merger substantially, but I am now convinced it can be a real asset to Tesla.
racer26
Active Member
That's exactly what this release and call had to say:
SCTY is cashflow positive, and in control of the debt its carrying - in addition, most of its debt is non-recourse, and therefore not a big deal.
They stated that joining with TSLA's worldwide banking partners, the experience of both TSLA and SCTY can be leveraged to get better financing terms for both companies operations.
If you can't see that in the release, you're simply not reading.
Funny!
As separate companies they created a product and announced it last week.
And they also brought Panasonic into the deal with the two companies with interlocking boards.
Interlocking boards relates to monopoly concerns within the same industry, not in related or different industries. Besides tesla and Scty have a wee bit to go before they are a monopoly in the energy or even the car industry.
It is a hollow excuse.
"Dow failed at selling solar roofs so Tesla will also fail" is in the same vein as: "GM tried to sell the EV-1 but failed, how can Tesla possibly think it can sell electric vehicles"? It is a silly argument.
I agree. Very often EM seems not to understand (or care) that "people" don't understand (or care) about the inherent logic of a decision, but especially about money/finance (as @DaveT emphasized). He always forgets that people (analysts, especially) don't think like he does.
I personally love that the first slides of every Tesla presentation (look at tonight's letter...) are about CO2 increasing and climate change, but as much as he keeps saying that very few are gonna listen. Tesla (the company) is co-dependent TSLA (the stock), and in the stock market very few are interested about CO2. It seems to me that he keeps forgetting that.
My fear is that he really makes mistakes in this regard (communication, manipulation of SP), and puts Tesla (the merger, specifically) in trouble.
What are you talking about?
Tesla does not have a 27b valuation based on their financial results (what people can see) ..the market is believing way more than they are seeing.
Runarbt
Active Member
My take also, from the release and conferance call combined this was my conclusion. I am happy i placed some (medium) call option bets today.
the marked had to catch on eventually, dont it?;-) but my novwk1 might expire worthless.. normally it take 2-4 days until ppl understand, these days.. 2-4 week og months?The only thing I thought had some real meat on it was the cutting out the middle men part. The rest of it seemed pretty weak. OK, glass is cheap, but what were the other people using? A better statement would have been, "past cells used material x, which costs twice as much per pound as our tempered glass."
The other items to me just sound like tangentially related items to the question thrown in there to sound like an answer. They don't really say how that makes them better than past products. I have seen pictures of other products, but that's it. As a somewhat stereotypical mechanical engineer, aesthetics are very difficult for me to assess. I'm kind of a function over form type of guy. That being said, the products revealed on Friday do look nice. I don't even begin to claim to be able to put a value on that "nice" though.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
