FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I missed that statement... did he say overwhelmingly in favor?
If so, I'd would've appreciated if he'd said "we have enough institutional votes already"...
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I missed that statement... did he say overwhelmingly in favor?
If so, I'd would've appreciated if he'd said "we have enough institutional votes already"...
Ulmo
Active Member
Back when I was trying to invent ways to bring solar to market before it was even 10% efficient, I used to run these numbers of leased type arrangements (I think I called them something else; I'm not quite the financial expert these guys have become). I would try to predict future cell efficiencies, R&D investments, etc.. One of the things that stuck out to me was that in the solar leasing business, there was a certain market size of those who are willing to and can lease solar panels for their home and are not willing to or not able to buy outright or finance a loan for themselves. This is a group of people willing to provide space for a project on their roof that will benefit them and a financing company (Solar City). After a while, far before all roofs have been converted to solar, the low hanging fruit for this market segment will slowly become saturated; new entrants to the market will come and go (people grow up, buy homes, become aware of solar, new jurisdictions open up, efficiencies of cells increases, etc.). Just because Solar City has been successful thus far doesn't mean they should just 10x size it and expect everything to be the same. Your so called "simplest justification" is absurd, considering that.
Also, why would a company want to 10x size a static product in a competitive marketplace when better alternatives exist, even if the saturation point in the customer base wasn't yet reached?
Your statement doesn't meet the bar of logic on a number of fronts.
Racking would be behind, right? It doesn't look like the electrical connection pierces the tile (which is probably a bad idea anyway). So the tiles don't appear to plug in like a light bulb, which is both a mechanical and electrical connection.
This is only interesting because Musk mentioning racking is the first hint at implementation of this new system.
They came into this saying it is a "no brainer" so I don't doubt for a second that they think it will not pass.
Last stop is what happens with the SCTY earnings, but I don't see that derailing the deal at this point.
So then what would the problem be with "we are going to deliver 25k cars, Model 3 reservations have topped 400k and we already have significant orders for Powerwall 2.0"?
Basically if investors are not going to give you credit for the second statement there isn't much reason why I would believe they would give you credit for the first
racer26
Active Member
There is no more pie to throw. Nothing Elon can say matters.
If you can't see that Tesla is on track to become the largest company in the world, full stop, inside the next 10 to 15 years, then you're not paying attention, or you're in denial.
No other auto company is making the investments they need to be making today to be able to compete with Tesla 4-5 years from now.
Tesla is racing, pedal to the metal, towards a 100% EV sustainable future. In order to do that, you're going to need a lot of batteries, and Tesla is the only one building battery plants of any significant size. Even the BoltEV, frequently heralded as Detroit's answer to Tesla, only has enough battery deals to produce 50,000 of them in a year. That's a full order of magnitude behind where Tesla will be in 2018, with just Model S, X and 3. Then, before 2020 likely, and certainly before 2025, we will see minibus, semi, Y, Roadster 2.0, and probably pickup too. Tesla does not simply compete in a market - it tears the competition apart. Tesla Model S Number One Selling Large Luxury Sedan In US By Far
TE starts taking off in January. We've already seen big utility-scale deals, and those are just the beginning. Residential sales will be huge. The use cases and economic argument for PowerWall and PowerPack can come from so many different angles its almost not funny.
All of that to say nothing of bringing the existing SCTY into the fold, and adding Solar Roofing Tiles.
racer26
Active Member
Than their underlying cells, which are better than anything on the market today by 4-6%.
Tell me something we don't already know. This is a short term price thread. We already know all about the long term. Our discussion should be, at what price should we add/get in, to maximize profit. I don't think the downtrend is done yet.
Seriously?
No one has any "How many SolarCity employees does it take to screw in a solar tile?" jokes?
Because there is no news there.
(What does significant in "Tesla math" mean? 100% more than the 1 order they had on Thursday?)
racer26
Active Member
How about how many shares of SCTY do longs have to buy to reset the AH price back to within 1c of the close today? 3.
Elon is so convinced that SCTY merger deal will pass, that's very good news for the investors waiting on the sidelines. It would be interesting to see how TSLA continue the downwards trend before the final vote date 11/17, which is still 13 trading days ahead. In between the SCTY ER and US president election could introduce enough volatility to bring the SP into attractive level. Keep your dry powder and be prepared. I still see TSLA has good chance to climb back to 250 with M3 ramp up in 2017.
N5329K
Active Member
Nature abhors a connection. It really abhors a thousand connections. A thousand connections on a roof? That makes nature laugh.
They sure do look good, though.
Robin
Unfortunately, this seems like a self-inflicted wound.
Seems people here had a lot higher expectations for the Friday reveal (like actual numbers, a working system, etc) and especially for today's announcement. Now, I don't know if that is just the optimists here or did analysts actually expect new info?
My bet is that they would have been better off doing nothing especially since they seem to have the votes for the merger anyway and they don't need to raise money (so at this point the stock price isn't relevant to raising money, dilution,etc).
I don't know if it is a reaction to the Goldman downgrade, or the lack or "pop" after the ER, but this seems really odd.
Also, note that Elon said the tiles will have 98% of the original efficiency. So, 98% * 22% = 21.56%, not 22% - 2% = 20%
racer26
Active Member
Palate cleanser. The answer to the question is, "Yes."
Will electric cars turn the world upside down?
Will electric cars turn the world upside down?
No, he said it would be 2% less efficient than solar panels.
He did not specify whether that is the average solar panel or the high-end solar panel, just another detail left out of the presentation.
Have you seen Tesla's cell packs? Elon doesn't mind lots of connections.
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