Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[W84M3]

So... extremely low volumes @ 189. No takers?

 

[BornToFly]

Bought 100 more shares around 189. Couldn't resist!

 

[electracity]

You got to be kidding, I never said that margin is positive, it is negative.

The point is that calling a 3% negative margin "certainly a large negative margin" is a slight exaggeration, don't you think?

O.K., I'll rephrase. "You can't be serious that Tesla had only a negative 3% margin on 5000 units".

As I said when Musk announced the product it was "forward priced". It was priced where it would make a profit at volume. Same strategy with powerwall 2. It will be the same with the solar roof. It is a scaling strategy to create the demand to be able to scale. It loses money in the short to medium term.

 

[vgrinshpun]

O.K., I'll rephrase. "You can't be serious that Tesla had only a negative 3% margin on 5000 units".

As I said when Musk announced the product it was "forward priced". It was priced where it would make a profit at volume. Same strategy with powerwall 2. It will be the same with the solar roof. It is a scaling strategy to create the demand to be able to scale. It loses money in the short to medium term.

Once again, my point that calling 3% negative margin "certainly a large negative margin" does not square with reality.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Really hoping SolarCity pre-announces. SolarCity ~ $19 is the only reason Tesla is stuck ~$200. I don't think people appreciate the significance of the cash flow SolarCity will make available to Tesla, or the amount of money that will be available to Tesla in the very near future.

Paris accords take effect on November 4th. Soon after, $700 billion in capital will become available to companies working to tackle climate change.

International climate finance - European Commission

Paris Climate Agreement to enter into force on 4 November

 

[electracity]

Once again, my point that calling 3% negative margin "certainly a large negative margin" does not square with reality.

You do not have access to the information needed to make an estimate on powerwall margins.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You do not have access to the information needed to make an estimate on powerwall margins.

We have 10-Q data.

Do you??

 

[Roger t]

Which is weird right? Because he said he was going to build a great sports car EV, did that, said he was going to build a cheaper sedan, did that + SUV , said he was going to build a car for the masses, and here we are with prototypes driving around town and production starting next year.....why anyone would not believe in what he says and what the company does is beyond me............

It is weird. One thing I realized is that Model S/X has high price, so not a lot of people, including journalists, can afford it and experience the car. That leaves room for speculation and misinformation. Model 3 will change that.

 

[SunCatcher]

It is weird. One thing I realized is that Model S/X has high price, so not a lot of people, including journalists, can afford it and experience the car. That leaves room for speculation and misinformation. Model 3 will change that.

If Tesla can keep up with demand, the Model 3 will be like the intro of the VW Beetle all over again. The "People's Car". Model T also comes to mind. The roads will be swimming with them. Their debut will make the iPhone release pale in comparison. Am I wrong?

 

[viKtor slamet]

We have 10-Q data.

Do you??

Good... I can sense your fear.. your anger. It gives you focus. Come to the dark side.

 

[Papafox]

Good... I can sense your fear.. your anger. It gives you focus. Come to the dark side.

Young Luke Vgrinshpun will never move to the dark side. Wouldn't it be horrible to discover you were his father, though?

 

[electracity]

If Tesla can keep up with demand, the Model 3 will be like the intro of the VW Beetle all over again. The "People's Car". Model T also comes to mind. The roads will be swimming with them. Their debut will make the iPhone release pale in comparison. Am I wrong?

Musk is determined to create pent up demand in all the new product categories. How this strategy plays out will probably be very different than apple.

IIRC correctly the Ford Mustang when new had tremendous demand. That might be a better analogy. I don't think beetle demand built over time.

 

[electracity]

Good... I can sense your fear.. your anger. It gives you focus. Come to the dark side.

The dark side with 10Q data can be very powerful......

 

[Roger t]

If Tesla can keep up with demand, the Model 3 will be like the intro of the VW Beetle all over again. The "People's Car". Model T also comes to mind. The roads will be swimming with them. Their debut will make the iPhone release pale in comparison. Am I wrong?

Musk is determined to create pent up demand in all the new product categories. How this strategy plays out will probably be very different than apple.

IIRC correctly the Ford Mustang when new had tremendous demand. That might be a better analogy. I don't think beetle demand built over time.

People compare Tesla with Apple. It hasn't happened yet. Model S/X is too expensive. If Apple sells iPhone for $1200 there will be no developers and no Appstore. With Model 3 and SW update, Tesla becomes a platform that scales to millions of people.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Good... I can sense your fear.. your anger. It gives you focus. Come to the dark side.

SHRINK??

 

[30seconds]

I posted this in the SCTY thread, but I think it is a very interesting read about where SCTY is heading with regards to software based distributed energy generation, storage and management.

SolarCity Has a Plan to Unlock Tomorrow’s Electric Grid

 

[Yggdrasill]

"and is a scum now at 80,000"

When he said "now", I assumed he meant "now".

That is not the current guidance.

How about "50,000 per 6 months" or "100,000 annualized", those okay?

 

[electracity]

People compare Tesla with Apple. It hasn't happened yet. Model S/X is too expensive. If Apple sells iPhone for $1200 there will be no developers and no Appstore. With Model 3 and SW update, Tesla becomes a platform that scales to millions of people.

But HOW it scales is the crux of the analyst's dilemma. Musk wants a much higher SP so he can inexpensively fund the capex he needs to scale. He proves demand with reservations for first the M3, and now the Powerwall 2, and later probably the solar roof. But he is not moving SP with this strategy at this time.

Selling the M3 returns capex, but later than is desirable. So there is the potential for a negative feedback loop here: Doubts about scaling cap the SP which increases the cost of new capital.

It is a very interesting game of chess.

 

[dalalsid]

But HOW it scales is the crux of the analyst's dilemma. Musk wants a much higher SP so he can inexpensively fund the capex he needs to scale. He proves demand with reservations for first the M3, and now the Powerwall 2, and later probably the solar roof. But he is not moving SP with this strategy at this time.

Selling the M3 returns capex, but later than is desirable. So there is the potential for a negative feedback loop here: Doubts about scaling cap the SP which increases the cost of new capital.

It is a very interesting game of chess.

Well next Q we'll see how much real demand the powerwall has since Tesla is taking actual deposits online. No idea if this is global. If it is, we might see powerwall deposits equivalent to car deposits from Australia alone. P.S. at which point Tesla wouldn't need to raise much capital.

 

[Roger t]

But HOW it scales is the crux of the analyst's dilemma. Musk wants a much higher SP so he can inexpensively fund the capex he needs to scale. He proves demand with reservations for first the M3, and now the Powerwall 2, and later probably the solar roof. But he is not moving SP with this strategy at this time.

Selling the M3 returns capex, but later than is desirable. So there is the potential for a negative feedback loop here: Doubts about scaling cap the SP which increases the cost of new capital.

It is a very interesting game of chess.

For the past Q we see Tesla has good operating leverage. Elon also talked about scaling through improving the efficiency of machine that makes the machine. If BMW can scale to 500k in one plant, there is no reason Tesla can't do more.