Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[pGo]

Read what Trump would do in the first 100 days in office. Removing Paris climate deal is part of the agenda. And much more.

Here Is What Donald Trump Wants To Do In His First 100 Days

 

[esk8mw]

Sounds like Project Fear , let's keep an open mind for at least 48 hours.

Note the use of "if" and "could." I'm saying this stuff is on the table. Whatever they want, they can get. What is it that they want? Sadly, I don't have a clue.

 

[dakh]

Haven't seen this mentioned here before, sorry if a dupe. SpaceX have figured out what the issue was with the latest rocket and will likely return to flight this year.

We seem to have figured out what the issue was
The problem had to do with liquid helium, advanced carbon composites, and solid oxygen.
This has never been seen before in rocketry, so that's why it was hard to figure out

formation of solid oxygen in the carbon over-wrap of one of the [helium] bottles in the upper stage tanks. If it was liquid, it would have been squeezed out. But under pressure it ignited with the carbon.

 

[esk8mw]

They can screw with EV incentives, but this will also expose how corrupt their party stance would be, in regards to oil incentives.. if incentives go away for EVs, they go away for everyone, not just Tesla.

If they screw with autonomous driving, then they end up screwing all manufactures, which includes big auto, Google, mobile eye, etc.. Not just Tesla... In the end, if incentives or ZEV credits are gone, then there is no need for big auto to transition towards EV production, this will only further Tesla's lead in EVs.

As long as Tesla has the data to backup their claim that autonomous driving is safer, then this case goes to the Supreme Court, garnering even more attention towards Tesla. Either way, Tesla wins. Incentives are about to expire anyway. So be gone with it. $35 is more than affordable for the mass.

I agree in part, especially when I take a very long view. I just fear for the medium term effects of all this. If EV incentives are gone, it has a negative effect on demand. Not a large one IMO, but an effect. Same with ZEVs - that hurts Tesla in the medium term and boosts everyone else. Traditional automakers could definitely be boosted by a focus on O&G over renewables.

Autonomy and ITC/net metering would be big issues. AP is a big part of the value proposition and long-term vision for Tesla now. Trust me, you don't want courts resolving that. Courts are the anti-Tesla and move at a glacial pace. Autonomy and the related Tesla Network profits would be set back 5+ years.

Basically, all these things are more bad for Tesla than for anyone else because Tesla is the leader in all these things - EVs, autonomy, solar installs (soon), etc. I do agree that negative impacts to these things will not crush Tesla and EVs/solar will eventually win out, but I'm not excited about the prospect of various visions now taking years longer to come to fruition thanks to potential government intervention.

 

[Green Pete]

So... is a Trump presidency good to self driving laws?

 

[FredTMC]

They can screw with EV incentives, but this will also expose how corrupt their party stance would be, in regards to oil incentives.. if incentives go away for EVs, they go away for everyone, not just Tesla.

If they screw with autonomous driving, then they end up screwing all manufactures, which includes big auto, Google, mobile eye, etc.. Not just Tesla... In the end, if incentives or ZEV credits are gone, then there is no need for big auto to transition towards EV production, this will only further Tesla's lead in EVs.

As long as Tesla has the data to backup their claim that autonomous driving is safer, then this case goes to the Supreme Court, garnering even more attention towards Tesla. Either way, Tesla wins. Incentives are about to expire anyway. So be gone with it. $35 is more than affordable for the mass.

Thx.

I believe ZEV is purely a state thing (lead by CA) and under CARB control. (California Air Resources Board).

California is blue and it'll continue to do what it wants.

 

[Roger t]

Read what Trump would do in the first 100 days in office. Removing Paris climate deal is part of the agenda. And much more.

Here Is What Donald Trump Wants To Do In His First 100 Days

Trump's 100 day plan has no mention of ITC or EV subsidies. Things that are potentially relevant to Tesla are:

" FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars' worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal."

and

" SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America's water and environmental infrastructure"

 

[dakh]

Read what Trump would do in the first 100 days in office. Removing Paris climate deal is part of the agenda. And much more.

Here Is What Donald Trump Wants To Do In His First 100 Days

cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America's water and environmental infrastructure

You can call that "removing climate deal" but from what I can tell this can easily be interpreted as a redirection of funds from international to national agenda. I don't see this as being obviously negative for SCTY/TSLA, in fact this can very well be a positive development.

 

[sundaymorning]

Thx.

I believe ZEV is purely a state thing (lead by CA) and under CARB control. (California Air Resources Board).

California is blue and it'll continue to do what it wants.

Good point, the trump and republican house/senate effect is way overblown. Just another day in Tesla's footnote. Their main focus will be on M3, and I want to reiterate just how much I love their recent purchase.. I see Tesla buying up many more companies in the future.

 

[pGo]

You can call that "removing climate deal" but from what I can tell this can easily be interpreted as a redirection of funds from international to national agenda. I don't see this as being obviously negative for SCTY/TSLA, in fact this can very well be a positive development.

Trump has specifically mentioned Paris climate deal a few times. Please share how do you see any of trumps policies as positive for Tesla.

He's said that he likes American manufacturers. But I am skeptical that he likes any clean energy company. Thus, focus on keystone pipeline, fracking policy ease, unlocking national oil reserve, clean coal and become energy independent. With republican senate and house, Trump will support what's good for republicans.

 

[RobStark]

Right so the ITC extension / allow oil export was a deal struck for bipartisan agreement. But now the Republicans control all of congress and White House. If they choose to revisit the issue no deal will be necessary. They will do what ever they want. They could get rid of ITC credit anytime they choose over the next 2 years at least. In the end, it is just legislation.

Republicans don't have 60 Senate Seats. 51 or 52.

So, no, they can't do anything they want whenever they want.

That is why our wise Founding Fathers created the filibuster.

So 51% or in this case 48% couldn't bully everyone else.

And not all Republicans are Trumpistas.

Most Congressional Republicans are not.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Liam Denning of course undermines SolarCity's results:
SolarCity Heads Quietly Into the Sunset

 

[dakh]

Trump has specifically mentioned Paris climate deal a few times. Please share how do you see any of trumps policies as positive for Tesla.

He's said that he likes American manufacturers. But I am skeptical that he likes any clean energy company. Thus, focus on keystone pipeline, fracking policy ease, unlocking national oil reserve, clean coal and become energy independent. With republican senate and house, Trump will support what's good for republicans.

I haven't seen specifics that would indicate that climate-related policy would be repealed domestically. Just that US will not be spending money on this internationally. I'm not saying this won't happen, but I'd like to see specific evidence first. They're after job creation and retooling energy production and distribution is a strong job creation opportunity.

 

[RobStark]

...until the Republicans invoke the "nuclear option" to end filibusters with a simple majority vote. That's coming. There will be complete, unfettered Republican control of the executive and legislative branches (and soon the judicial branch as well).

Sen McCain R AZ, Sen Graham R SC and Sen Susan Collins MN at the very least will block that.

 

[TMSE]

Trump has specifically mentioned Paris climate deal a few times. Please share how do you see any of trumps policies as positive for Tesla.

He's said that he likes American manufacturers. But I am skeptical that he likes any clean energy company. Thus, focus on keystone pipeline, fracking policy ease, unlocking national oil reserve, clean coal and become energy independent. With republican senate and house, Trump will support what's good for republicans.

Clean coal is a mirage and even dirty coal is not cost efficient due to cheap natural gas. it is the cheap natural gas which killed coal. With the relaxed EPA regulations under Trump, one could argue that electricity from coal or natural gas get much cheaper compared to electricity from utility-scale solar or wind energy, although I doubt that given the number of solar/wind installations happening in China. Chinese govt. care for low cost/profitability first and environmental protection next. They are like Trump squared, it is all about money and jobs for them.

As long as solar and battery backup can survive and thrive on cost competitiveness alone, I do not think any republican has any problem. It will be like any other business, with no special status.

 

[N5329K]

That tax credit came from the Bush administration, so not a given that a new Republican administration would reverse this.

Even if they did, it would hurt everyone else far more than Tesla, who is planning on making the Model 3 cost competitive with ICE cars with the assumption of the credit phasing out soon after its release anyhow. GM and everyone else is at a far greater disadvantage.

I hope you're right but I am not remotely reassured. For me, I see the political fallout as a new, non-zero chance that the Model 3 I early reserved will not be the net $28-30K we assumed on a base model. No one contemplating a Model S will be bothered, but this effective price hike will be significant for some- possibly many- Model 3 reservation holders. There is now a possibility (I think more than just a possibility) that the first couple of hundred thousand Model 3's will be more expensive than their buyers now expect. That will have some effect.
As for: "As long as solar and battery backup can survive and thrive on cost competitiveness alone, I do not think any republican has any problem. It will be like any other business, with no special status." do not overlook the power of corporate donations. Has Tesla contributed to many Republicans? Has Chevron? Exxon Mobil?
Robin

 

[aubreymcfato]

An article from an investor in clean energy:
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-one-clean-energy-investor-is-reacting-to-a-trump-victory

TL;DR: sell.

 

[sundaymorning]

If Trump opens up the reserves, allows fracking to continue, he'll only piss more people off their minds. Only way for them to retaliate is to protest, or buy the M3. In the end, Tesla wins.

I'm sure his friend Putin would protest in earnest about opening reserves as it would tremendously affect the Russian economy.

 

[DaveT]

@Xpert We are waiting.

 

[RobStark]

McConnell hints against nuke option to kill Dem filibusters


Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell hinted Wednesday that he doesn't support the controversial idea of changing Senate rules to kill Democratic filibusters, and instead indicated that this move might be seen as an overreach by Republicans.

When Democrats ran the Senate, they changed the rules to allow for simple majority votes for judicial nominees, but not Supreme Court nominees, which can still be filibustered. But despite speculation that Republicans will take this next step, McConnell indicated some resistance to it when asked.

He said "overreaching after an election, generally speaking, is a mistake." And when pressed on McConnell's approach to working with Democrats in the new Senate, McConnell said the way the chamber is structured requires "some Democratic participation and cooperation."