Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Intl Professor]

Barron's takes pleasure trashing Tesla; Ron Baron loves Tesla

There is nothing in common between them

In the 1970s my ex had some inheritance to invest. One of the sources for information then was Barron's the publication. Almost universally wrong advice, whether the direction of the economy, or which sectors to invest in. Now, I don't know. Sounds the same from you young'ns.

 

[Turing]

An EV winning MT car of the year is a good sign for electric vehicles and by extension for Tesla. Increases collective mainstream awareness and acceptance of EVs.

 

[sundaymorning]

So last Q shorts were screaming on top of their lungs that Tesla's demand must be down due to them slashing prices. Where are those shorts now that Tesla raised the 60kwh by $2k? Going by this theory, if demand was so bad last Q, and Tesla delivered 24.5k, then the price hike this q should indicate a beat by a wide margin. No I don't expect shorts to admit this, I'm just here to expose inconsistencies in their tobacco science.

 

[mmd]

It is great to see that almost half of the finalists are American cars and the winner is an innovative American company.
This is just the start of America being great again as a manufacturer and innovative.
Nice Job everyone!

You make it sound like Trump and his campaign slogan had something to do with this, which can't be far from the truth. Bolt is Obama's child

 

[TMSE]

As ever, I'm going to step here and say what I always say: same team. The Bolt will benefit EVs in general, which will benefit Tesla, not harm it. Yes we can complain about GM's sales/lobbying tactics, but this is a good car which provides competition for ICE, not for EVs. And I've ridden in one, and it's the best non-Tesla car I've been in. That helps us.

But, the real problem is none of the legacy ICE automakers are committed to EV. As soon as Trump got elected, they are already lobbying for rolling back mileage and EV mandates. Automakers Ask Trump To Ease Emissions Rules, EV Mandates - Get Ready For A War

 

[Roger t]

“This is a direct challenge for Tesla to make the Model 3 anything near the Bolt EV for the same price,” executive editor Mark Rechtin said. “Chevrolet has made affordable long-range electric transportation available to the masses. Elon Musk should be afraid. Very, very afraid.”

Elon would be laser focused on making great product. Why would he be afraid of an inferior product that only sell 30000 a year?

 

[Xpert]

Elon would be laser focused on making great product. Why would he be afraid of an inferior product that only sell 30000 a year?

Not to mention M3 is SOLD OUT for 2017 and bolt is not in the same league as MS/X. Plus GM is likely losing $$$ on every bolt given regular gas cars are already sold at very low margin. This makes no difference to TSLA.
Perhaps MT is trying to promote EV while pocketing some good change from GM in the process.

 

[CaliBear1]

In one year the Model 3 is going to flood the market. It will be an aspirational car that is within reach of a broad market, with or without incentives. Forget the Bolt or Elon Musk being afraid of it. Watch the sheer panic from BMW and Audi as the sales of the 3, 4 and 5 series plummet at a stunning rate. I turned in the lease on my 335is convertible and I'm getting by on a clunker as I await the arrival of my Model 3. My BMW sales rep was none too pleased when I didn't re-up with him.

Bottom line? I believe that at this time next year we will look back at all this hand-wringing and anxiety with humor and, more importantly, dramatically bolstered bank accounts.

Hold! Hold!

 

[TMSE]

Elon would be laser focused on making great product. Why would he be afraid of an inferior product that only sell 30000 a year?

I am not sure if they can sell even 30k per year. Few weeks ago, someone here mentioned that select few west coast GM dealerships have about 100 Bolts allocated for each. In one location, only half of them, about 50, had reservations.

 

[3Victoria]

An EV winning to award is good for all EVs. Congrats to GM. Good luck next year.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla knows the whole world is gunning to emulate them, same team or not, no one will be congrtating them except us shareholders. For the past 3-4 years since my first purchase of Tesla shares, I cannot recall a single automobile company congratulating Tesla, or thanking them, even when those patents were handed out for free. A bit tired of "the same team perspective." Some of us aren't very fond of pretending to be on the same team anymore, and we just prefer to say it how it is: Tesla > competition, by a very wide margin. Saying that the Bolt is the best EV outside of Tesla is significantly lowering the bar, it has no place being in the same conversation. Let's just put it at that..

 

[schonelucht]

In my model the vins often come reasonably close to actual quarterly production, close enough to be a useful data point.

Yet your own conclusion for this quarter contradicts it since you said that you VIN assignments are on track to outpace production by 4000. It only worked for a short while last quarter when they were not production constrained, had a short order->confirmation->start production cycle and VIN assignments more or less where padded to full production rate for inventory build to be sold later in the quarter. VIN assignments tell us something about demand, not production.

 

[TMSE]

Yet your own conclusion for this quarter contradicts it since you said that you VIN assignments are on track to outpace production by 4000. It only worked for a short while last quarter when they were not production constrained, had a short order->confirmation->start production cycle and VIN assignments more or less where padded to full production rate for inventory build to be sold later in the quarter. VIN assignments tell us something about demand, not production.

Are you implying that there is no demand problem but, supply problem?

 

[Matias]

There are several good reasons for consumers to buy up all of the inventory cars in Q4: lifetime supercharging, avoid the $2K price increase and get a nice discount on AP1 cars. From Tesla's viewpoint producing a ton of inventory cars in late Q3 and early Q4 allowed them to keep the factory running full tilt ahead of the AP2 switchover and provides a hedge against bad weather late in Q4 causing deliveries to be delayed to Q1 like happened in December 2014.

I personally would not buy new AP 1.0 car now.

 

[schonelucht]

Are you implying that there is no demand problem but, supply problem?

If they manage to sell their inventory this quarter, then most certainly, they have once again crossed in demand constrained territory. For the moment, it's too early to call.

 

[virtuesoft]

Jaguar have released a nice looking all electric concept car at the LA auto show. It is the first car I've seen that genuinely looks like it could compete with a Tesla. It will apparently be available from the second half of 2018. Here is the website with full details...

I-PACE | Electric Sports Car | Jaguar

https://jaguar.ssl.cdn.sdlmedia.com/8730_pr15.mp4

http://www.jaguar.com/Images/ebrochure_-i-pace-_18MY_tcm76-324451.pdf

 

[Gerardf]

Jaguar have released a nice looking all electric concept car at the LA auto show. It is the first car I've seen that genuinely looks like it could compete with a Tesla. It will apparently be available from the second half of 2018. Here is the website with full details...

I-PACE | Electric Sports Car | Jaguar
https://jaguar.ssl.cdn.sdlmedia.com/8730_pr15.mp4
http://www.jaguar.com/Images/ebrochure_-i-pace-_18MY_tcm76-324451.pdf

Nice indeed.. but 2nd half 2018... No real threat to Tesla. ..and why not sign up for the Tesla Superchargers ?
"I‑PACE Concept can achieve 80% charge in 90 minutes with a 50kW DC rapid charger.*"

50 kW in 2018 ?? That will not do it for a lot of customers. For me the Tesla SC-rate is the minimum to make business trips possible.

 

[Tslynk67]

nd why not sign up for the Tesla Superchargers ?

I'm still scratching my head as to why none of these Tesla-wannabes haven't subscribed to the SuC network, I mean it's a win-win for everyone.

So sure, Bolt got the "car of the (next) year" award, but how are people going to road-trip with it?

 

[virtuesoft]

Nice indeed.. but 2nd half 2018... No real threat to Tesla. ..and why not sign up for the Tesla Superchargers ?
"I‑PACE Concept can achieve 80% charge in 90 minutes with a 50kW DC rapid charger.*"

50 kW in 2018 ?? That will not do it for a lot of customers. For me the Tesla SC-rate is the minimum to make business trips possible.

Yes, the charging rate is the main weakness I can see so far. However, it is the best car any manufacturer other than Tesla has come up with at the moment.

I think the other luxury car manufacturers are going to be announcing similar cars over the next 6 months.

Autopilot and the Superchargers will be the two factors that the other manufacturers will find the hardest to compete with.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Autopilot and the Superchargers will be the two factors that the other manufacturers will find the hardest to compete with.

Good point that I think is oft forgotten by the press. The Bolt (congrats to Chevrolet on winning MT's Car of the Year) has, what, a bit over 200 miles range? How is it for long distance travel right now (did MT address that - I haven't read the article yet)? How long does it take to travel 500 miles? 2 days? 3.5 hours for 200 miles, 10+ hours to recharge, lather, rinse, repeat?

Until a DC fast charge network is installed that is usable - the current patchwork of DC chargers is a mess with both standards (CHADeMO, CCS) and distribution - it is not practical for the vast majority for anything other than a "local" car.

Having said that it still remains to be seen if GM is serious about this (like, if demand is for 100,000/year will they accommodate or just make their 30,000 compliance vehicles and then cut if off). If they are, then Elon's mission/plan of a fossil fuel free future is underway.

Mike